Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030

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Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030
Alexey Gromov PhD in Economic Geography Deputy
General Director Institute for Energy Strategy
Oil Gas Outlook Russia 2009 December, 8, 2009
Moscow
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Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of Documents
of the Strategic Development
Long-term forecast of the development of Russian
economy for the years 2009-2030
Conception of the long-term development of the
Russian Federation for the year 2020
ES-2030
General scheme of allocation of power generating
facilities for the year 2020
General scheme of development of the oil industry
for the year 2030
General scheme of development of the gas industry
for the year 2030
State program of energy saving
Program of long-term development of the fuel and
energy complex of the Russian Far East
Strategy of development of the power generation
in the Russian Far East
Eastern Gas Program
Conception of the state program for exploration
and exploitation of the continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
Investment programs of energy companies
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State Energy Policy in Russia
Key priorities' realization
Rational market environment
Advanced standards and regulations
Prospective state of Russian FEC
Strategic initiatives
Energy security
Management of state property
Energy efficiency of economy
Development of home energy markets
Formation of rational energy balance
Subsoil resources management
Economic efficiency of FEC
Regional energy policy
External energy policy
Social policy in the energy sector
Ecological security of FEC
Scientific, technical and innovative policy
KEY PRIORITIES
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Aim and Goals of the ES-2030
Innovative and efficient energy development
Aim
Stable institutional environment in the energy
sector
Modernization and construction of new energy
infrastructure
Energy and ecological efficiency of the national
economy and energy sector
Goals
Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and
processing of energy resources
Further integration of the Russian energy sector
into the global energy system
Aim of the ES-2030 remains stable despite
consequences of the global economic crisis
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Forecasted Change of the Fuel and Energy
Complexs Role in the Russian economy
2030
2005
Energy sector in GDP
Energy sectors export in GDP
Energy resources in export
Investment in energy sector in total investment
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Expected Dynamics of Specific Energy Intensity of
GDP and Domestic Demand for Primary Energy
Resources
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Economic efficiency of the energy sector
Strategic aim
Efficient relationship between government and
energy business
Principles and mechanisms of realization
Creation of favorable economic environment
Support of strategic initiatives
Optimization of tax burden
Development of the insurance system of long-term
investments risks
Rationalization of amortization policy
Formation of united leasing companies
Perfection of state price (tariff) regulations in
the sphere of natural monopolies
Support of small and medium-scale business in FEC
Completion of liberalization processes in power
generation
Stimulation of modernization and innovative
development of FEC
System of prospective regulations, standards and
norms
Perfection of license policy, elimination of
inadequate administrative barriers
Organization and stimulation of raising the level
of stuffs skills in FEC
Strategic indicators of economic (budget)
efficiency of FEC
First stage (2013-2015) Second stage (2020-2022) Third stage (2030)
Formation of stable institutional and legal environment in FEC Formation of stable institutional and legal environment in FEC Formation of stable institutional and legal environment in FEC
Financial stability of FEC and national economy Financial stability of FEC and national economy Financial stability of FEC and national economy
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Ecological security of the energy sector
Strategic indicators
First stage (2013-2015) Second stage (2020-2022) Third stage (2030)
Decrease in emission of pollutants into atmosphere and hydrosphere by the FEC, by the level of 2005 Decrease in emission of pollutants into atmosphere and hydrosphere by the FEC, by the level of 2005 Decrease in emission of pollutants into atmosphere and hydrosphere by the FEC, by the level of 2005
no less than 15 no less than 30 no less than 50
Volume of greenhouse gases emission, of 1990 level Volume of greenhouse gases emission, of 1990 level Volume of greenhouse gases emission, of 1990 level
no more than 83 no more than 92 no more than 105
Rate of APG utilization (in 2005 75) Rate of APG utilization (in 2005 75) Rate of APG utilization (in 2005 75)
95 95 95
Forecasted dynamics of ??2-emissions
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Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector
Energy infrastructure deevelopment and
diversification
Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern
regions of Russia
Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the
Northern regions of Russia and Arctic off-shore
Non-fuel energy
Energy saving
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Energy infrastructure development and
diversification
OIL
NATURAL GAS

• Baltic Pipeline System - 2 50 mln. ?/y

• North Stream 55 bln. cub. m/y

• South Stream 30 bln. cub. m/y

• Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean 80 mln. ?/y

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Development of oil and gas complexes in
Eastern regions of Russia
Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas
resources in Eastern regions of Russia will help
to satisfy the domestic demand for energy
resources and diversify directions of export
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Exploitation of Oil and Gas Resources of New
Regions (including Arctic offshore)
Shift in oil extraction in Russia
Shift in natural gas extraction in Russia
new regions
new regions
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Non-fuel energy
Forecasted development of renewable power
generation
Priority development
POWER GENERATION
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewable
Putting into operation installed capacity of
23-33 GWt will increase the share of renewable
energy in power generation from 0,5 to 4,5
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Energy Saving
Expected results of energy saving and increase in
energy efficiency in Russia
Potential of energy saving in Russia is estimated
at level of 45 of the current consumption of
energy resources
Saving of 240 bln. cub. m of natural gas, 340
bln. kilowatt-hour of electric power, 90 mln t of
coal and 45 mln t of oil and oil products
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Improvement in competitiveness of national
economy under conditions of growing tariffs for
energy resources
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Consumption of energy resources can be reduced by
Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and
natural gas 84-112 bln. USD
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20 in heat supply 30 in power generation 40
in industry and transportation 50 in living
apartments
Decrease in governmental expanses 3-5 bln. USD
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Reduction in CO2 emissions 790 mln
t/y Improvement in ecological situation in the
country
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• Export of primary energy resources
• up to 2030

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Strategic indicators of Russian oil industry
Indicators/directions 2008 1st Stage 2nd Stage 3rd Stage
Efficiency of land use Efficiency of land use Efficiency of land use Efficiency of land use Efficiency of land use
Recovery ratio 30 30-32 32-35 35-37
Production Production Production Production Production
Share of Eastern Siberia and Far East in total production, 3 10-12 12-14 18-19
Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation
Growth in capacity of arterial pipelines and export maritime-terminals, mln. t (basic year 2005) 5 58-60 65-70 70-75
Proficit of export capacities (including those for transit purposes), mln. t 17 25-30 35-40 40-45
Refining Refining Refining Refining Refining
Average processing depth 72 79 82-83 89-90
Ratio of light oil products 57 64 67-68 72-73
Nelson index of complexity 4,3 6,0 6,5 8,5
Consumption of oil products per capita, t 0,5 1,0 1,1-1,3 1,3-1,6
Export of oil and oil products Export of oil and oil products Export of oil and oil products Export of oil and oil products Export of oil and oil products
Share of Eastern vector in the total volume of oil and oil products export, 8 10-11 14-15 22-25
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Oil Sector Forecast up to 2030
Oil production by region up to 2030
Oil refining up to 2030
Oil export up to 2030
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Strategic indicators of Russian gas industry
Indicators/directions 2008 1st Stage 2nd Stage 3rd Stage
Production Production Production Production Production
Share of new region in total production, , including 3 13-14 21-23 38-39
Yamal 0 6 9 23-24
Eastern Siberia and Far East 2 7-8 12-14 15
Share of independent producers in total production, 17 16 25-26 27
Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation
Growth of arterial pipelines length, by the level of 2005 3 8-10 13-15 20-23
Share of reconstructed pipelines, of the total length of United System of Gas Supply 4 10-11 12-13 25-26
Export Export Export Export Export
Share of the Asia-Pacific in total export, 0 11-12 16-17 18-19
Share of LNG in total export, 0 4-5 10-11 14-15
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Gas Sector Forecast up to 2030
Gas export up to 2030
Gas production by region up to 2030
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Forecast of investment in energy sector and
energy supply of the national economy for the
year of 2030
24-32 of investment in FEC will be directed in
power generation, 22-26 - in oil industry,
21-24 - in gas industry and 3 - in coal
industry. The sphere of energy supply will
receive 22-23 of investment, forecasted in
ES-2030
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Expected results of ES-2030
1) Guaranteed energy security of Russia and its regions
2) Competent participation of Russia in ensuring global energy security, partly by means of diversification of export
3) Gradual decrease in dependency of national economy from oil and gas sector and respective decline of FECs share in the structure of GDP from 30 to 18
4) Decrease in specific energy intensity of GDP by 2,1-2,3 times
5) Optimization of fuel and energy balance, decline in the share of natural gas in energy consumption from 52 to 46-47 and increase in the share of non-fuel energetics from 11 to 13-14
6) Exploration and exploitation of new oil and gas producing regions
7) Development of the social partnership between energy companies and society
8) Improvement in financial stability, budget efficiency and investment prosperity of energy companies
9) Innovative renovation of production assets and energy infrastructure, development of new energy technologies
10) Ecological security and efficiency of FEC, limitation of greenhouse gases emissions (up to 100-105 by the level of 1990) owing to realization of the potential for energy saving
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• Thank you for your attention!

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