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POS 316416 Latin American Politics 10162006

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Title: POS 316416 Latin American Politics 10162006


1
POS 316/416 Latin American Politics 10/16/2006
  • Course status.
  • Midterm Exam Review guide posted on course
    website distributed/discussed at the end of
    class.
  • Paper Assignment 1.
  • Returned via e-mail this evening or tomorrow
    afternoon.
  • Paper Assignment 2.
  • Distributed in class.
  • Lecture/discussion.
  • Elections 2006.
  • Democratization and transitions 1900-2000(6).
  • Political Economy and Transitions/Democratization.
  • Video Chile Defeat of a Dictator (30 minutes).
  • Ties together Vanden and Prevost, Smith, and
    lecture.

2
  • Smith Chapter 2.
  • Transitions to democracy are
  • Complex affairs.
  • Break down of authoritarian regimes.
  • External war.
  • Economic crisis.
  • Defections from the ruling coalition.
  • Summary of Chapter 2.
  • Regime transitions did not inexorably lead to
    democracy.
  • Most transitions led else where.
  • All transitions effected by uncertainty.

3
  • Pre-Conquest/Colombia Polities Mayan Polities
    4.

4
  • Indigenous Mobilization
  • Vanden and Prevost, et. al re indigenous rights.
  • Contemporary Context.
  • Minorities at Risk Dataset.
  • LANIC Indigenous Rights Index.
  • Democratization/Liberalization.
  • Cold War/post Cold-War.
  • Globalization.
  • Videos. Videos (approx. 5 minutes).
  • Sendero Luminso wrap up.
  • Questions.
  • How are they examples of different patterns of
    Indigenous mobilization?
  • Importance of legacy of conquest, or current
    state of economic development and
    democratization?

5
  • Democratization and Conflict Global and
    Regional (Latin America).
  • Marshall, Monty G. and Ted Robert Gurr. Peace and
    Conflict 2005 A Global Survey of Armed
    Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and
    Democracy.

6
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9
  • Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
    Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
    Country Reports 2003.

10
  • Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
    Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
    Country Reports 2003.

11
  • Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
    Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
    Country Reports 2003.

12
  • Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
    Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
    Country Reports 2003.
  • Diffusion of Democratization.
  • University of Colorado/NSF. The Spatial and
    Temporal Diffusion of Democracy, 1815-1995.
  • Movie of diffusion 1946-1995.

13
  • Smith Chapter 2.

14
  • Smith Chapter 2.

15
  • Smith Chapter 2.

16
  • Smith Chapter 2.

17
  • Smith Chapter 2.

18
  • Smith Chapter 3. ILO 2005 Report.

19
  • Equity Class Structure.

20
  • Equity Class Structure.

21
  • Landman, Chapter 5e.

22
  • Income Inequality.
  • Global Patterns.
  • UN Human Development Report.
  • HDR Data in Flash Animation.
  • Gini Index Country Rankings.
  • Regional Patterns.
  • UN Human Development Index.
  • HDR 2005 Data Flash (Section 6 Slide 10).

23
  • Videos (approx. 30 minutes).
  • Chile Defeat of a Dictator. 2000. WETA(PBS).
  • Part of series A Force More Powerful.
  • Economic Crisis/early Globalization
  • Military Intervention.
  • Aperatura.
  • Church and Civil Society.
  • Campaign to vote Pinochet Out (issues of
    Americanization of Elections).

24
  • Latin American Political Economy.
  • Political Economy.
  • How defined?
  • Why important approach for understanding Latin
    America, and rest of planet?
  • Pre-Conquest Economies.
  • Regional economies at best, little/no evidence of
    connection to wider trading patterns.
  • Conquest Economies.
  • Mercantilism.
  • Smith, Ricardo.
  • Integration of Latin American into global trading
    routes controlled by Spain and Portugal.
  • Specializes (or specialized) into export of raw
    commodities.
  • Establishes pattern of dependence core/periphery
    relationship with core economies that persists to
    this day.
  • Export raw materials import finished European
    and American products.
  • Comprador class/elite.

25
  • Conquest imposed land distribution.
  • Mirrored land holding patterns in imperial core.
  • Large estates distributed to colonial
    administrators, conquistadores, military
    administrators.
  • Latifundios.
  • Patrón and campesinos.
  • Minifundistas.
  • Monoculture/monocrop economies.
  • Persistent legacy.
  • Cuba/Soviet relations even shaped by raw material
    monoculture economies.
  • Foreign Direct Investment and Control.
  • Enclave economies.
  • Management foreign in compounds.
  • Foreign control over means of production, and
    influence with core military/intelligence
    services distort internal politics.
  • UFCO in Guatemala as example.
  • Guatemala Documentation Project. National
    Security Archive.
  • Overthrow of Arbenz 1954.
  • Operation PBSUCCESS declassified 1997.

26
  • Independence - continued.
  • 1850s1880s Pull of the International Economy.
  • Post-independence consolidation.
  • Foundations laid for integration into world
    economy.
  • Ingredients to integration.
  • Land resources.
  • Labor including encouragement of immigration.
  • Massive infrastructure investment especially
    integration of nation through development of rail
    roads.
  • 1880-1910.
  • European economy takes off increased demand for
    foods and other agricultural products.
  • Europeans continue to invest in infrastructure,
    North Americans also begin to invest.
  • Elite domination continues but styles of
    leadership moderate.
  • Growing middle class/professional class (growing
    not large relative to Europe and North America).

27
  • Patterns of Change in Latin America 1880s-2004
    (adopted from Skidmore and Smith Modern Latin
    America 2001 Oxford Univ. Press).

28
  • Patterns of Change in Latin America 1880s-2004
    (Phases 4-5).

29
  • Latin American Political Culture.
  • Although tempting, difficult to speak of one
    Latin American political culture.
  • Oligarchy.
  • Succession of non-responsive elites
    concentration of ownership of means of production
    and political power.
  • Gradual widening of base of pyramid.
  • Race, class, gender and power inequities.
  • Indigenous, Meztizo, European.
  • Income distribution.
  • UN Economic Commission for Latin America and
    Caribbean (ECLAC).
  • 1990-1999 Income distribution figures (p. 89-90).
  • 2002-2003 Income distribution figures (p. 7).
  • Classism Challenged.
  • Mass Organizations.
  • Unions.
  • Support for class based revolutionary movements
    (esp. Communist/Socialist).

30
  • Why - Dependency and Underdevelopment.
  • Trap of comparative advantage.
  • Monocultural dependency vulnerable to wild swings
    in commodity prices (e.g. volatility in copper
    prices and Chile video).
  • Difficulties of forming effective cartels.
  • International Coffee Organization.
  • OPEC.
  • Without government protection difficult for
    agricultural and raw materials sectors to survive
    global competition and market fluctuations.
  • Prebisch Thesis.
  • ECLAC.
  • Figure 7.1 (Vanden and Prevost, p. 157).
  • Structurally determined deterioration of terms of
    trade.

31
  • Dependency Theory.
  • ECLA and decolonization.
  • Dependency theorys roots in Marxism and classics
    studies of imperialism (Hobson, Lenin).
  • Nkrumah Neocolonialism, the Last Stage of
    Imperialism.
  • Post-decolonization mechanisms of control over
    Latin America sophisticated.
  • Franks Capitalism and Underdevelopment in Latin
    America.
  • Reproduction of the autonomy of political elites
    identifying with foreign investors and political
    forces.
  • Refutes two sector argument.
  • How to break out of dependency - ISI.
  • Nationalization of foreign investments.
  • Tariffs to protect indigenous industrialization.

32
  • Attempts at export led growth.
  • 1960s-1970s increasing integration into
    international economy.
  • Transformation of Latin American economies.
  • Extensive use of capital intensive technology.
  • Increased training in manufacturing related
    engineering.
  • Underdevelopment of appropriate technology.
  • Spread of consumerism.
  • State intervention.
  • Growth of middle sectors in management and
    production.
  • Growth of industrial proletariat.
  • Problem - Borrowing exceeded increase in
    production and exogenous shocks - global economic
    downturn and petrol-crises.
  • Borrow to buy hydrocarbons.
  • Petro-dollars at high interest lent to countries.
  • Inability to service debt.

33
  • Debt crisis leads to
  • Brazil, Mexico, Peru, to threaten default on
    debts.
  • Draws United States in direct negotiations with
    debtor nations, major investment banks,
    subsidization in order to isolate danger of
    defaults.
  • Debtor cartel threatened but never materializes.
  • IMF, World Bank, USAID get involved in
    restructuring debt and use this as leverage to
    dictate economic policy to debtor states.
  • Structural Adjustment and Neoliberalism.
  • Structural adjustments.
  • Austerity reforms.
  • Aimed at forcing state out of economy.
  • Fiscal reforms.
  • Cutting social spending.
  • Removing price controls or supports.
  • Attack on ISI returning to comparative advantage
    and export led growth.
  • International context Reagan/Thatcher
    Revolutions End of Cold War.

34
  • Washington Consensus.
  • Reduce government size.
  • Fiscal/Monetary reform.
  • Deregulation.
  • Liberalization of commerce.
  • Opening up to FDI and flow of capital.
  • Privitization of government owned corporations.
  • Elimination of subsidies.
  • Movement from Keynesianism to Friedman and von
    Hayek.
  • Neo-liberalism because viewed as return to
    Smithian classical economics.
  • Neo-liberalism and Globalization.
  • Related but not necessarily synonymous terms.
  • Maquiladoras.
  • Diffusion of production/distribution chains
    throughout planet.
  • Shift to just-in-time production.

35
  • Regional Integration.
  • Long sought goal.
  • Simón Bolívars Congress of Panama 1826.
  • 1824-1840 Central American Federation.
  • Post World War II European Common Market 1957
    inspiration.
  • 1960 Central American Common Market.
  • Latin American Free Trade Association.
  • Andean Pact.
  • NAFTA.
  • 1989 Bush I Enterprise for the Americas
    Initiative.
  • 1994 NAFTA goes into effect.
  • Major difficulties with NAFTA.
  • Push for regional integration has slowed.
  • FTAA.
  • Eventual long term goal.
  • Doubts have appeared about neoliberalism.
  • Chavez, Lula.

36
  • Economic/Political Legacy.
  • Economic recovery has begun - slow and uncertain.
  • Growing economic inequality.
  • Bifurcation/polarization of class structure.
  • Upper/Middle class well developed consumer
    markets.
  • Lower class - access to plentiful but low quality
    and too expensive products.
  • Neoliberalism has moderated somewhat.
  • Structural adjustments no longer quite as
    draconian.
  • Rise of left of center anti-neoliberal states.
  • Lulas Brazil.
  • Chavezs Venezuela.
  • Argentinian Crisis (PBS 01/07/2002 re
    international bailout)

37
  • Smith Chapter 7
  • Elections hallmark of democracy.
  • Basic tenets competition participation
    accountability.
  • Comparing 2nd (1940-1970) and 3rd (1978-2000)
    cycles.
  • Paradox, high participation endemic discontent.
  • Expansion of electorate.
  • Participation.
  • Range of Choice.
  • Rule 1 More brutal military regime, moderation.
  • Rule 2 Risk of renewed intervention, moderation.
  • Bureaucratic Authoritarianism/Military populism.
  • Political Gridlock.
  • Dilemma efficiency/represenation.
  • Box 7.2 New Opportunity for the Left?

38
  • Smith Chapter 7

39
  • Gender Rights Womens Rights. Foweraker et. al
    2003.

40
  • Smith Chapter 7

41
  • Smith Chapter 7

42
  • Smith Chapter 7

43
  • Smith Chapter 7

44
  • Smith Chapter 8
  • State Capacity.
  • Statism/Stateness.
  • Democracies vs. Dictatorships.
  • Which builds state capacity most rapidly.
  • Impact
  • Health and Education.
  • Poverty and Income Distribution.
  • Gini Index.

45
  • Smith Chapter 8

46
  • Smith Chapter 8

47
  • Next Week (10/23/2006).
  • Midterm exam.
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