Title: Modeling Catastrophe Risk to Marine and Energy Exposure in the Gulf of Mexico
1Modeling Catastrophe Risk to Marine and Energy
Exposure in the Gulf of Mexico
- Houston Marine Insurance Energy Seminar
- Hemant Shah, CEO Risk Management Solutions
- September 18, 2006
2New Orleans, September 3 2005
- 70-80 of New Orleans flooded,
- 55 of the citys 147,000 properties inundated by
more than 4 feet - Maximum flood depths 18 feet.
3New Orleans Before the Pumps, 1888
4The Expansion into the Floodplain
- Pumps initially deployed from 1913-1928
-
51915 New Orleans Hurricane
- Cat 4 Hurricane, 20 miles east of New Orleans
(Grand Isle) - Whole country between Poydras and Buras
inundated. Levees gone, property loss appalling.
Life toll probably heavy. Conditions estimated
worse than ever before. Relief needed. No
Communications..." - Storm struck before the construction of the
Industrial Canal - On the Mississippi River below New Orleans storm
surge overtopped the levees below New Orleans and
rose to 15-20 feet above sea level. - Swells rolled up the river in New Orleans 10-12
feet above high water. - Water was carried into Lake Pontchartrain and
overflowed the existing levees to flood western
part of the city - From the Old Basin canal (parallel to Orleans
Avenue) to Broadway and from Claiborne Avenue to
Lake Pontchartrain - Flooding 1-8 feet
- After the passage of the storm the surge receded
rapidly but the flood waters stayed in place for
3-4 days in New Orleans and had to be removed by
the drainage system - (from1915 Monthly Weather Review).
6The Expansion into the Floodplain
- Second generation of pumps elevated to be able to
function after a flood
Bayou St. Jean at Lake Pontchartrain
71947 Hurricane
- Cat 3 directly over the City
- Surge overtopped LakePontchartrain levees
- 17th St Canal wall failed
- Up to 6 feet of water in parts of Jefferson
parish - Standing water for weeks
- Removed through cutting and blasting holes in the
levees
8Growth of New Orleans
9New Orleans Canals
Industrial Canal (link between Lake
Pontchartrain and Mississippi R) 1923
Developed after 1945
Misssippi River Gulf Outlet 1965
Drainage Canals Mid 19th Century
Inner Harbor Navigation Canal 1923
101965 Hurricane Betsy
- Cat 3 Hurricane
- 12 foot storm surge
- 60,000 homeless
111965 Hurricane Betsy - Presidential Response
122005 Hurricane Katrina - Presidential Response
13100 Years of Storm Surge Flooding
1915
1947
1965
2005
14One Disaster Sets The Terms For The Next
15Mayor Pomfhs Vision
- I want to give positive assurance that our
friends will find Miami this winter the same
enjoyable, hospitable, comfortable vacation city
it has always been. - I predict that Miami will make a world record
come-backwe are ready to resume our place as the
playground of the world -
- Miami Mayor E.C. Pomfh
- speaking six days after the September 18, 1926
storm struck south Florida
16Mayor Pomfhs VisionRealized
- 1990 Population of Dade and Broward alone exceed
that of all 109 coastal counties (TX VA) in
1930 - Of 67 coastal counties in LA -FL, pop. density
is 2.5X national average - During the Florida construction boom from 1970
1990 - 70 of buildings in Broward and Palm Beach
counties built in this period - 75 increase in the population density in SE
Florida - Commercial values almost tripled in value
- The trend continues from 1990 to 2000
- The population of Broward County increased by
29, - and Collier County by 65
- Currently, 1,540 building permits issued in
coastal counties every day
17U.S. Hurricane Risk, RiskLink v6.0
Tail (Hurricane)
Probability
40 60BKatrina
120 250B Miami Cat 5, NYC Cat 4
300 350B Worst Case
Loss
18The Capital Crunch will Catalyze Change
- New capital entering the market?
- Capital markets alternatives?
- Shortage of cover
- Change in market architecture?
19What is a Catastrophe Model?
20Utility of a Catastrophe Model
Geography of Risk
Demographics of of Risk (Gross/Net)
Probability of Risk (EP Curve)
21Offshore Platform Modeling FrameworkRMS RiskLink
v6.0, Released May, 2006
Define Hurricane
Claiming
- Storm parameters
- Basin-wide tracks, realistic time histories
- Onshore and offshore clash
- Time-stepping windfield calculations
- Windspeed and wave height
- Submarine landslide
- Physical damage (PD)
- Loss of production
- BI, CBI, OEE
22Recent Storms to Impact the Offshore GOM
- Plot of maximum windspeeds - 2002 to 2005 Lili,
Ivan, Katrina Rita
23Recent Storms to Impact the Offshore Region
- 94 of the 4,200 offshore platforms in GOM
experienced Cat 1 winds or greater from 2002-2005
24Hurricane Losses to Offshore ExposureIvan (04),
Katrina and Rita (05)
Obtained from various industry sources
25Lessons Learned of Relevance to Offshore Energy
- Frequency and intensity of hurricane activity
- Likely to face elevated levels of hurricane
activity over at least the medium term - Prior modeling practice, based on long-term
historical averages, underestimated the
occurrence of intense storms - Vulnerability to damage and insured loss
- Physical damageability of platforms (et al)
greater than previous expectation - Time element risks are significant, and must be
modeled - Greater variability in risk to various classes of
exposure - Making the transition from 1st to 2nd generation
models
26Frequency of Hurricane Activity
27A Conspiracy Between Mother Nature and Developers?
Category 3-5 Atlantic Basin Hurricanes
1901-2005 and 5-year running average
Sustained period in population growth and
economic development of coastal Gulf and SE
regions of the U.S.
28US Landfalling Cat 3-5 Hurricanes
29Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature
Departures (ºC) During Aug-Oct (1951-2000 Base
Line)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1950
1970
1990
1960
1980
2000
30Hurricane Activity on the Rise?
-
-
- Named Storms 11 15
28 13-16 -
- Hurricanes 6 9
15 8-10 - Cat 3-5 2 6
7 4-6 - Cat 5 0.4 1
4 N/A -
- US Hurricanes 1.6 6
5 88 - US Cat 3-5 0.7 3
4 81
Initial 06 ForecastVery Active
Average 1950-2005
2004
2005
Other factors, including temporal and geographic
expansion of the basin and sustained intensity
of storm
31NOAA Declares the Onset of an El Niño
Scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center
reported that El Niño conditions have developed
in the tropical Pacific and are likely to
continue into early 2007Ocean temperatures
increased remarkably in the equatorial Pacific
during the last two weeks. "Currently, weak El
Niño conditions exist, but there is a potential
for this event to strengthen into a moderate
event by winteralso, the development of weak El
Niño conditions helps explain why this Atlantic
hurricane season has been less active than was
previously expected. El Niño typically acts to
suppress hurricane activity by increasing the
vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea
region. However, at this time the El Niño
impacts on Atlantic hurricanes are small. We are
still in the peak months of the Atlantic
hurricane season, and conditions remain generally
conducive for hurricane formation.
32Expansion of the Atlantic Basin?
Hurricane Alex (Cat 3) most intense N of 38N Aug
3rd - 5th 2004
Hurricane Wilma (Cat 5) most intense Atlantic
Hurricane 882 mb Oct 18th 25th 2005
33Vigorous Visible Debate on Climate
34Climate Change Debate and Hurricane Activity
- The WMO (World Meteorological Organization) has
released a statement on the current state of
debate - The division in the community is not as to
whether Global Warming can cause a trend in
tropical cyclone intensities. Rather it is on
whether such a signal can be detected in the
historical data base. - Whilst the existence of a large multi-decadal
oscillation in Atlantic tropical cyclones is
still generally accepted, some scientists believe
that a trend towards more intense cyclones is
emerging. - No single high impact tropical cyclone event of
2004 and 2005 can be directly attributed to
global warming, though there may be an impact on
the group as a whole. - Prepared by the WMO/CAS Tropical Meteorology
Research Program, Steering Committee for Project
TC-2 Scientific Assessment of Climate Change
Effects on Tropical Cyclones. February 2006
35RMS Expert Elicitation, October 2005
Jim Elsner Professor Florida State
Kerry Emanuel Professor, MIT
Mark Saunders Professor, University College London
Tom Knutson GFDL, NOAA, Princeton, NJ
The Multidecadal Cycle
activity
36Geography of Hurricane Activity IncreaseChanges
in CAT 3-5 Activity vs. 1900-2005
Cat 1-2 21 increase in activity Cat 3-5 36
increase in activity
15 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 45 45
37Vulnerability to Damage and Insured Loss
38Comparison of Industry Platform PD Losses to
Modeled Estimates
39Development of Vulnerability Curves
- Approach
- Analytical damage assessment
- Detailed platform hurricane damage analysis
reports - Evaluation of structural response to wind and
wave action - Design guidelines
- Detailed analyses of historical claims data
- Vulnerability curves are functions of
- New construction classes
- New year-built ranges
- New occupancy classes
-
- Modeling of OEE
- Modeling of CBI
- OP specific loss amplification
40New Construction Classes
RiskLink 5.0
RiskLink 6.0
- Jackups
- Caissons/Well Protectors
- Up to 1971
- Post 1971
- Fixed
- Up to 1971
- 1972 1980
- 1981 - 1993
- Post 1993
- TLP/Spar
- Semi-submersibles
- Drillship
- Shallow Water
- Fixed
- Up to 1971
- Post 1971
- Deepwater
41Mobiles
Jackups
- Used for drilling new wells move from location
to location - Design Requirements
- 10-Yr API Design
- Wind (1-min) 78 mph
- Significant wave height 26 ft
- Typical damage mechanisms
- Failure of legs and separation of hull
Ocean Warwick after Katrina
42Mobiles
Semi-Submersibles
- Used for drilling new wells move from location
to location - Design requirements
- Mooring line design criteria similar to Jackups
- Rig itself designed to more stringent criteria
- Typical damage mechanisms
- Mooring lines break
- Anchors dragged
43Platforms in Shallower Water
Caisson/Well Protector
- Design requirements
- No design guidelines pre-1971
- Typically 100-yr winter storms/sudden hurricanes
- Typical damage mechanisms
- Damage to deck and rails
- Bending of well jacket
MDR
Wind Speed
44Platforms in Shallower Water
Fixed Platforms
- Design requirements
- No design guidelines pre-1971
- Typically 100-yr design criteria
- Further changes in 1980 and 1993
- Typical damage mechanisms
- Wave-in-deck
- Buckling of legs
MDR
Wind Speed
45Platforms in Deeper Water
Drill Ship
- Used for drilling new wells move from location
to location - Typically of modest risk since drill ships can be
moved away from path of inbound storms
46Platforms in Deeper Water
TLP/Spar
- Design requirements
- Stringent design guidelines
- Designed for deeper waters
- Typical damage mechanisms
- Wave-in-deck
- Wind damage to topsides
Damage to Mars during Katrina
47Loss of Production Income (LoPI) Modeling
- Business Interruption (BI)
- Direct physical damage caused to the platform
- Modeled through effective downtime
- Contingent BI (CBI)
- Damage to upstream facilities typically not owned
by assured - Pipeline
- Mudslide
- Falling objects such as collapsed platforms
- Anchor drags
- Other platforms that serve as collection/processin
g hubs - Damage to onshore facilities
48Business Interruption Modeling
- Downtimes different by water depth
- Smaller platforms in shallower water have smaller
downtimes - Deep water platforms have larger downtimes for
the same platform MDR - Longer time to survey damage
- Longer repair times
- Examples Medusa spar and Petronius CT requiring
more than 4 months repair time for low amounts of
damage - Occupancy classes to differentiate water depth
49Contingent Business Interruption Modeling
- Triggered by pipeline damage due to
- Mudslide
- Falling objects such as collapsed platforms
- Anchor drags
- Pipeline damage modeled for higher category
hurricanes - Identified areas of Gulf most susceptible to
mudslides
Mudslide susceptibility map from MMS study
Mudslide prone areas of Gulf
50Operators Extra Expense (OEE) Modeling
- Coverage includes
- Control of well
- Redrill costs
- Modeled for
- Caisson/Well Protectors
- Fixed platforms
- Platform needs to be severely damaged/ collapsed
- OEE vulnerability functions based on the
probability of severe platform damage - Validated on MMS Well information
51Change in Modeled PD Risk, Industry Aggregate
2006 IED
52Evolution in Re/insurer Modeling and Risk
Management Practice
53Insurance Industry Dynamics in Flux
- Risk increasing (modeled risk, more risks)
- Capital requirements increasing (even for same
risk) - Re/insurance rates increasing
- Insurers are taking action to manage their
exposures - Insureds retaining more risk
- New capital entering the market, and ART
We remain of the opinion the amount of capital
required by a re/insurer in peak zones will
increase by 50. We believe that demand for
coverage will increase as the new models are
introduced, new PMLs are calculated, and rating
agencies require more capital - Dowling and
Partners
54Integrated Decision Making Under Deep
Uncertainty
55Modeling and Underwriting, Together
The most important factor in improving
underwriting is better information on
risksexecutives say believe that they need more
granular risk assessments than traditional
approaches - Economist Deloitte Insurance
Survey 2003
Whether they misclassify risk or allow risk
pricing to be driven by the market instead of
underwriting discipline...is the fundamental
driver of low returns in this industry -
McKinsey Company, The Journey Revisited 2004
Disciplined underwriting will continue that
highlights exposure data, related loss modeling
and pertinent underwriting information - 2005
Insurance Market Overview
There is one certainty amid all this confusion.
We are in a period of increased frequency and
severity of hurricane activity. The sooner the
industry accepts this and adapts its
underwriting, the better off it will be - 2006
U.S. Insurer, Editorial Page
56We Live in a Quantum World