IAEA EMRAS II : background and introduction

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IAEA EMRAS II background and introduction
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Environmental Modelling for RAdiation
Safety (EMRAS II) General aim of programme To
improve capabilities in the field of
environmental radiation dose assessment
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Means for achieving improvement

• acquisition of improved data for model testing
• model testing and comparison
• reaching consensus on modelling philosophies,
  approaches and parameter values
• development of improved methods
• exchange of information

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Brief history of international environmental
model testing and improvement

• 1985-90 BIOMOVS Swedish sponsored
• 1988-94 the IAEA VAMP programme (prompted by
  Chernobyl)
• 1996-2002 the IAEA BIOMASS programme
• 2003-2007- the IAEA EMRAS I programme
• 2009 new programme IAEA EMRAS II

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Contents of Past Programmes

• VAMP
• mainly scenarios from Chernobyl release
• transfer data collection
• BIOMASS
• Chernobyl scenarios with others
• environmental clean-up
• methodology for assessing the long term
  environmental impact of radioactive waste
  disposal (Reference biospheres)
• EMRAS I
• scenarios from routine and accident situations
• transfer data review and update
• biota model testing and comparison

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EMRAS I topics (1)

• Theme 1 Radioactive release assessment
• TRS-364 WG
• Revision of IAEA transfer data handbook
• New and revised data
• now includes tropical data
• I-131 WG
• Model testing
• Chernobyl scenarios, dose and environmental
  concentrations

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EMRAS I topics (2)

• H-3 and C-14 WG
• Model testing
• Real routine release and accidental release
  scenarios,
• OBT concerns
• Aquatic WG
• model testing
• real routine and accidental release scenarios,
• rivers and lakes

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EMRAS I topics (3)

• Theme 2 Remediation assessment
• Urban WG
• limited testing and comparison
• urban contamination following accidental releases
• a real scenario and a hypothetical scenario
• NORM WG
• mainly scenario development and model and data
  collection
• Theme 3 Assessments related to Protection of the
  Environment
• Biota WG
• model comparison and testing
• real chronic releases to lake

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EMRAS I output

• Overview/summary booklet with reports of 6 WGs in
  attached CD(s)
• Revision of TRS 364 to be issued in TRS series

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Follow-up to EMRAS

• IAEA has recognised value of EMRAS and the
  previous programmes and decided to sponsor
  another programme in this field
• The new programme should be linked to
• real issues in radiological risk assessment
• to the needs of countries
• to new international developments
• Avoid topics which are mainly only of academic
  interest

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Preparation for EMRAS II

• Ideas from IAEA Conference on Environmental
  Radioactivity (April 2007)
• Ideas from Final EMRAS I meeting (Nov 2007)
• Input from Questionnaire sent to EMRAS
  participants in Dec 2007)
• Views of IAEA Secretariat
• Consultants Meeting in May 2008

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Preparation for EMRAS II

• EMRAS I Participants ideas (1)
• Continue some existing WGs
• i.e., Biota, H-3/C-14, Urban, NORM
• Also, use new model testing scenarios

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Preparation for EMRAS II

• EMRAS I Participants ideas (2)
• H-3/C-14 testing in new situations but also
• a political need in some countries
• transfer of knowledge and training
• Urban
• dispersion and transfer modelling not yet
  reliable
• currently an important topic
• NORM
• only slightly explored as yet
• almost all countries have NORM issues
• must be coherent with other IAEA activities in
  this area

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Preparation for EMRAS II

• EMRAS I Participants ideas (3)
• Biota more to do,
• model testing and comparison
• international reference transfer data
• interact with other international projects, e.g.,
  ICRP and EC
• New model testing scenarios (Russian rivers and
  estuaries)
• integrated testing several nuclides, aquatic
  and terrestrial environments
• human and biota impacts,
• countermeasure effectiveness

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Preparation for EMRAS II

• EMRAS I Participants ideas (4)
• Transfer of knowledge and providing training
• A new recognition of the importance of EMRAS type
  programmes for facilitating the transfer of
  knowledge to younger generations and for
  providing training for new generations of
  assessors

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Preparation for EMRAS II

• New ideas (1)
• Implications of new ICRP recommendations and BSS
  revision for assessment modelling
• Needs of developing countries small scale
  releases (semi-training)
• Nuclear renaissance improved international
  guidance for environmental assessment of new
  facilities

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Preparation for EMRAS II

• New ideas (2)
• Harmonized approach for protection of humans and
  biota
• Environmental sensitivity variation of
  appropriate countermeasures with environment type
• Effects of environmental change on assessment of
  long term impact of waste repositories

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Proposals for EMRAS II

• Four Working Groups covering
• most of the topics previously mentioned
• but with a new focus on developing international
  guidance on assessment methods, that is,
  reference approaches

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Proposals for EMRAS II

• 1. Reference and Graded Approaches for Assessing
  the Impact of Radioactive Discharges emphasis
  on
• establishing and testing reference assessment
  schemes for regulatory purposes,
• the graded approach for determining compliance
• 2. Reference Approaches for Assessing the
  Radiation Doses to Biota
• emphasis on
• continuing EMRAS I work on biota model testing,
• a handbook of transfer parameter data for biota

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Proposals for EMRAS II

• 3. Assessment after Emergency Situations
• emphasis on
• evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures,
• developing a reference accident assessment model
  for tritium
• 4. Integrated Assessment
• emphasis on multi-nuclide, multi-media model
  testing with varied endpoints.

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Working Group 1 (Reference and Graded Approaches
for Assessing the Impact of Radioactive
Discharges)

• 1A. Prospective assessment of radioactive
  discharges
• Establishing reference principles and procedures
  for the prospective assessment of radioactive
  releases standard models, parameters,
  assumptions.
• Testing of model predictions based on harmonized
  principles and procedures
• 1B. Prospective assessment of the long-term
  impact of radioactive waste repositories
• Extension of the BIOMASS reference biosphere work
  to consider influence of environmental change

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Working Group 1 (Reference and Graded Approaches
for Assessing the Impact of Radioactive
Discharges)

• 1C. Prospective assessment of the impact of NORM
  releases to the environment.
• Model improvement and testing for NORM releases
• Exploration of reference regulatory approaches to
  NORM release assessment
• 1D. Assessments for demonstrating compliance
  Reference and graded assessment schemes for
  demonstrating compliance at the operational stage
  
• Use of source and environmental monitoring data
  and development of guidance on appropriate
  monitoring schemes

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Working Group 1 (Reference and Graded Approaches
for Assessing the Impact of Radioactive
Discharges)

• 1E. Harmonized assessment scheme for protecting
  humans and biota
• Review and testing of existing and new proposals
  for an integrated approach
• Coordinate with WG 2

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Working Group 2 (Reference approaches for
assessing radiation doses to biota)

• Complete work of EMRAS on model testing
• Develop handbook of transfer parameter values for
  application to biota
• Develop protection quantities and levels for biota

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Working Group 3 (Assessment after emergency
situations)

• 3A. Urban situations
• Evaluation of effectiveness of countermeasures
  model comparison and testing
• Complete EMRAS I work
• 3B. Rural situations environmental sensitivity
• Model evaluation of the influence of
  environmental sensitivity on countermeasure
  effectiveness
• Determining the most appropriate rural
  countermeasures
• 3C. Tritium accidents
• Model testing and comparison
• Develop a reference conceptual dynamic model for
  tritium accident dose assessment

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Working Group 4 (Integrated assessment)

• Seek suitable (unique and unusual) data sets
• Test models
• Aim for scenarios with releases to multiple
  media (air, land, rivers and sea), multiple
  nuclides and a range of endpoints

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Two additional potential topics

• Norway international guidance on regulatory
  assessment tools
• In particular, prospective assessments of the
  impacts to be addressed during the planning and
  implementation of the remediation of legacy sites
• (to be considered by WG1)
• France biota effects analysis
• Modelling to determine dose effects on species,
  derivation of species protection thresholds,
  population effects, acquisition of relevant data
• (to be considered by WG2)

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Considerations

• Practicalities
• Viability
• For a new WG or sub-group within the new
  programme, there must be evidence of sufficient
  support from Member States for proposals WGs
  must be viable, e.g., sufficient modellers
  prepared to submit estimates using their models,
  evidence of data sources and suppliers

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Arrangements for this meeting

• 1. Each participant should indicate his/her
  interest in one (or more) of the Working Groups.
• 2. Temporary Moderators have been appointed for
  this meeting for each WG
• WG 1
• WG 2 Brenda Howard
• WG 3 Kathy Thiessen
• WG 4 Gerhard Prohl

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Arrangements for this meeting

• 3. The Moderator of each WG will hold discussions
  on the potential work of the WG, including
  presentations on proposed topics if appropriate
• Should all of the topics be addressed?
• Are there additional topics to be considered?
• Is there enough interest to justify work on a
  particular topic?
• Can a reasonable working plan be developed for
  the WG
• 4.WG leaders should be identified and, if
  necessary, sub-groups established and Leaders
  identified.

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Main goals to be achieved at the end of the
meeting

• 1- Realistic working plans (including location of
  the meetings)
• 2 Evidence of WG and Sub-WG viability
• 3 - WG leader's name
• 4 - WG sub-groups, if needed, with the names of
  the sub-group leaders.
•  

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Benefits of international model testing

• Opportunities to compare with other groups
• Wider selection of scenarios for testing
• Wider selection of transfer data
• Improve modelling capabilities globally

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Organization

• Typically 20-30 countries involved
• Active participation gt 100 persons
• Working groups 10-20 members
• Meetings - one combined meeting/year, two/three
  WG meetings/year
• Funding small amounts of IAEA and sponsor money
  mainly self-supporting.

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EMRAS process

• Model testing
• Test scenario obtained and checked (by data
  providers)
• Modellers invited to make the predictions
  requested for the scenario (blind testing)
• Predictions compared with observations and
  discussed.
• Reasons for mis-prediction identified
• Conclusions drawn on how to improve

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Typical format

• Model testing using real environmental data sets
• Model comparison where no good data sets exist
• Data improvement international reference
  transfer data

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EMRAS process

• Model comparison
• Similar to model testing but with hypothetical
  scenarios
• Analysis based entirely on discussion between
  modellers
• Establishing Reference Data Sets
• Bring together national experts on transfer data
• Review literature
• Summarise and recommend default values for use in
  modelling indicating associated uncertainties

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IAEA plans

• Review proposals early 2008
• Propose new programme early/mid-2008
• Evaluate Member States responses
• Make definitive proposal mid/late 2008
• 1st meeting new programme - November 2008

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Preparation for EMRAS II

• IAEA views
• Draw on new ICRP exposure scenarios for programme
  structure, i.e., planned, existing and emergency
• Planned
• i) emphasise integrated assessment modelling
  multiple nuclides, multiple environments idea
  of an international methodology
• ii) Biota dose assessment
• Existing assessment of environments affected by
  NORM
• Emergency consideration of environmental
  sensitivity in assessment modelling