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Global Security Issues for Strategic Leaders

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Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, C te d'Ivoire, ... Somalia: failed state. Sudan (Darfur) Zimbabwe. Nigerian oil fields ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Global Security Issues for Strategic Leaders


1
Global Security Issues for Strategic Leaders
  • 4 Oct 2008

2
Agenda
  • Globalization
  • Transnational Security Issues
  • Failing and Failed States
  • Global Hotspots

3
National Purpose (Enduring Beliefs, Ethics and
Values)
Global Environment (Forces Trends) Competing V
alues Economic Conditions Globalization Inform
ation Revolution International Law Internation
al Organizations Non-State Actors Threats Co
nventional and Transnational WMD
  • Domestic
  • Environment
  • (Forces Trends)
  • Federal system of government
  • Bureaucracy
  • Economic conditions
  • Social needs
  • Electoral politics
  • The media
  • Public opinion
  • National style, self-image

National Interests
Strategic Vision
National Policy
National Objectives (Ends)
Strategic Concepts (Ways)
National Power (Means)
Feasibility, Suitability, Acceptability
Risk Assessment
Strategy
4
Global Security Focus
  • 1945 1991
  • Cold War rivalry and relative stability
  • International order of sovereign states and
    international organizations
  • 1991 2001 Post Cold War
  • Missing a strategic focus
  • Entropy in the international order
  • 2001 present
  • Global War on Terror and preoccupation with
    ungoverned spaces and Iraq
  • Post WWII institutions unsuited to current
    international challenges

5
Globalization
Increasing global connectivity, integration and
interdependence
  • Transnational Actors
  • Transnational Issues
  • Eroding Sovereignty
  • Institutional Gaps
  • Positive Effects
  • Negative Effects

Information, ideas, people, products and problems
can quickly cross national and regional boundaries
6
(No Transcript)
7
Globalizations Dark Side
  • Drastic disruption of traditional societies
  • Massive population explosion
  • Urbanization
  • Uneven wealth distribution
  • Anti-system groups use transportation and
    communication linkages

8
Global Security Issues
  • TerrorismIslamic Radicalism
  • WMD Proliferation
  • Conflicts
  • Great power rivalry
  • Interstate confrontation
  • Intrastate conflict
  • Transnational Crime
  • Drug Trafficking
  • Weapons Proliferation

9
  • Globalization has exposed us to new challenges
  • Public health challenges like pandemics
    (HIV/AIDS, avian influenza) that recognize no
    borders.
  • Illicit trade, whether in drugs, human beings, or
    sex, that exploits the modern eras greater ease
    of transport and exchange.
  • Environmental destruction, whether caused by
    human behavior or cataclysmic mega-disasters such
    as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis.

The National Security Strategy of the United
States of America, March 2006
10
Unconventional Global Security Issues
  • Demography
  • Climate Change
  • Disease
  • Financial Instability
  • Corruption
  • Migration
  • Poverty
  • Resource scarcity
  • Food
  • Water
  • Energy

- Transnational - Regional - Complex -
Interconnected - Uncertain - Unpredictable
11
  • 800 million are starving
  • One billion lack clean drinking water
  • Two billion lack sanitation
  • Two million are dying from AIDS each year
  • 175 million international migrants
  • Nearly 1 billion illiterate adults
  • Several billion affected by global warming

12
  • Climate change can act as a threat multiplier
    for instability in some of the most volatile
    regions of the world, and it presents significant
    national security challenges for the United
    States.
  • - National Security and the Threat of Climate
    Change, April 2007

13
Climate Change
  • Effects
  • Extreme weather
  • Drought
  • Flooding
  • Sea level rises
  • Retreating Glaciers
  • Habitat Shifts
  • Increased disease

Weak/Failing State
  • Results
  • Food production declines
  • Diseases increase
  • Clean water becomes scarce
  • Migration in search of resources
  • Internal conflict and spillover
  • Violent Religious Extremism
  • Movement away from liberal democracy
  • Radical ideologies
  • Humanitarian crisis

14
  • America is now threatened less by conquering
    states than we are by failing ones.
  • 2002 National Security Strategy
  • of the United States

15
Failed/Failing State A Definition
When state structures lack political will and/or
capacity to provide the basic functions needed
for poverty reduction, development and to
safeguard the security and human rights of their
populations When the state and civil society are
unable to engage in constructive interactions
leading to deficits in effectiveness, legitimacy
or both
16
Failed / Failing and Recovering (Fragile) State
  • Rampant corruption stymies domestic investment
    and growth
  • Ungoverned, lawless regions where predation is
    normal
  • The elite systematically exclude other groups,
    thus creating grievances
  • Reliant on international actors to provide basic
    services

17
  • The recent past vividly demonstrated the
    consequences of failing adequately to address the
    dangers posed by insurgencies and failing states.
    Terrorist networks can find a sanctuary within
    the borders of a weak nation and strength within
    the chaos of social breakdown. A nuclear-armed
    state could collapse into chaos, and criminality.
    Lets be honest with ourselves. The most likely
    catastrophic threats to our homeland for
    example, an American city poisoned or reduced to
    rubble by a terrorist attack are more likely to
    emanate from failing states than from aggressor
    states.

Robert M. Gates, 29 September 2008
18
So A State is Fragile So What?
  • Fragile states are 15 times more prone to civil
    war than developed countries
  • Violence is more extreme, lasts longer and
    frequently spills-over
  • Overwhelming source of the worlds refugees and
    internally displaced persons
  • Many fragile states are among the worlds worst
    abusers of human rights

Think about the consequences of the failure of a
nuclear armed state
19
  • Fragile states provide benefits to terrorist and
    criminal organizations such as
  • safe havens
  • conflict experience
  • settings for training and indoctrination
  • access to weapons and equipment
  • financial resources
  • staging grounds and transit zones
  • targets for operations
  • pools of recruits

20
  • "Weak and failing states serve as global pathways
    that facilitate the spread of pandemics, the
    movement of criminals and terrorists, and the
    proliferation of the world's most dangerous
    weapons."
  • -Condoleezza Rice, 2006

21
6. DRC 7. Afghanistan 8. Ivory Coast 9.
Pakistan 10. CAR
1. Somalia 2. Sudan 3. Zimbabwe 4. Chad 5.
Iraq
11. Guinea 12. Bangladesh 13. Burma 14.
Haiti 15. North Korea
16. Ethiopia 17. Uganda 18. Lebanon 19.
Nigeria 20. Sri Lanka
22
Global Conflict
23
GDP (PPP) per capita
24
Adult (15-49) HIV Prevalence Rate (), 2006
25
Life Expectancy
26
Africa
  • 26 of the worlds 30 poorest countries
  • Many countries lack adequate governance
  • Epicenter of the worlds most serious health
  • pandemic HIV/AIDS.
  • 7 of the top 10 countries at risk of collapse
    (Failed States Index)
  • Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad, Democratic
    Republic of Congo, Côte dIvoire, Central African
    Republic,
  • Somalia failed state
  • Sudan (Darfur)
  • Zimbabwe
  • Nigerian oil fields
  • Kenya Dec 2007 contested election
  • Impact of Chinas involvement

27
The Americas
  • Drugs, Gangs, Corruption, Poverty
  • The Andean Ridge
  • Drug producing region, (Venezuela, Colombia,
    Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia) a major source of
    cocaine and heroin, with lingering insurgencies,
    weak economies, and unstable democracies
  • Central America, Caribbean and Mexico
  • Drug Transit zone with gangs, violence and
    corruption
  • Tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil, and
    Paraguay - contains a large ethnic Arab
    population and may be a haven for Al Qaeda fund
    raising cells as well as other Middle Eastern
    terrorist groups
  • Politics Failure of Conservatives to solve
    problems of poverty was catalyst for a (re)turn
    to the left
  • Populist leaders in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador,
    and Nicaragua
  • Cuba after Fidel?
  • China has begun to court energy-rich
  • Latin America

28
Asia
  • The Asian Century a shift in the global
  • balance of power?
  • Emerging Superpowers China and India
  • Nuclear North Korea
  • Taiwan Security
  • Afghanistan Im not convinced were
  • winning in Afghanistan, Im convinced
  • we can.
  • Elections in 2009
  • Pakistan The perfect storm weak government,
    nuclear weapons, radical Islamic extremists and
    terrorists (Al Qaeda), sectarian conflict,
    Taliban insurgents, a vast ungoverned tribal
    region, Kashmir
  • Sri Lanka

29
Europe
  • Old Europe or Venus?
  • Anti-Americanism
  • NATO in Afghanistan
  • European Union has it lost its way?
  • Immigration challenges
  • Economically stagnant

30
Middle East
  • Iran the next nuclear power?
  • Elections in 2009
  • Arab-Israeli conflict two state solution?
  • Iraq
  • Radical Islamic extremism the transcendent
    challenge of the 21st century?
  • Sectarian conflict

31
Russia-Eurasia
  • Retreat from democracy
  • Energy windfall has fueled Russias economic
    revitalization
  • Bully in its own neighborhood
  • Georgia and beyond

32
Global Security
Transnational Crime
Hostile Russia
Anti-Americanism
Homeland Security
Ethnic Conflict
WMD Proliferation
Energy Security
Terrorism
Corruption
Emerging China
Violent Islamism
Migration
Climate Change
Jihad
Genocide
Disease
Illicit Drug Trade
Failed Failing States
Illicit Arms Trade
Resource Scarcity
Illicit Human Trafficking
Youth Bulge
HIV/AIDS
Poverty
33
  • If we are to meet the myriad challenges around
    the world in the coming decades, this country
    must strengthen other important elements of
    national power, both institutionally and
    financially, and create the capability to
    integrate and apply all the elements of national
    power to problems and challenges abroad.
  • Robert M. Gates, 26 November 2007
  • Many of the problems we face from the threat
    of pandemic disease, to proliferation of weapons
    of mass destruction, to terrorism, to human
    trafficking, to natural disasters reach across
    borders. Effective multinational efforts are
    essential to solve these problems.
  • The National Security Strategy of the United
    States of America, March 2006

34
Publications
Financial Times NY Times Washington Post LA
Times BBC News Reuters CNN and or Fox
News Christian Science Monitor Council on Foreign
Relations
My Yahoo Bloglines Newsgator Pluck Windows Live
Alerts Netvibes Google
35
Links and RSS feeds
Military Education Research Library Network (NDU)
http//merln.ndu.edu/ International Crisis Group
http//www.crisisgroup.org Center for Strategic
and International Studies http//www.csis.org Fore
ign Policy Research Institute http//www.fpri.org/
Brookings Institution U.S. State Department
http//www.state.gov/ CIA World Factbook
https//www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/ U.S
. Institute of Peace http//www.usip.org/ Rand
Corporation http//www.rand.org/ Progressive
Policy Institute http//www.ppionline.org/ The
Ohio State University's Program for International
and Homeland Security http//homelandsecurity.os
u.edu/ Latin America Network Information Center
http//lanic.utexas.edu/las.html Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace
http//www.carnegieendowment.org/topic/ The Fund
for Peace http//www.fundforpeace.org John F.
Kennedy School of Government http//www.ksg.harvar
d.edu/ International Institute for
Counterterrorism http//www.ict.org.il/
Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
http//www.ctc.usma.edu/default.asp Center for
Non-proliferation Studies http//cns.miis.edu/
Center for International Development at Harvard
University http//www.cid.harvard.edu/ Carnegie
Council http//www.cceia.org/ Hoover Institution
Stanford University http//www.hoover.org/
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
http//www-igcc.ucsd.edu/
36
Questions?
37
  • My contact information
  • dean.stodter_at_us.army.mil
  • (717) 245-4232
  • Department of Distance Education, US Army War
    College

38
Conflict Equation
Failing state
39
Conflict Resources
  • Factors that transform general grievance into
    conflict threat
  • Leadership/authority
  • Ideology/religious doctrine
  • Organizational capacity
  • Technical skills
  • Military
  • Informational
  • Financing
  • Access to weapons
  • Safe havens local and international

40
Triggers
  • Situational vulnerabilities
  • Temporal Windows of vulnerability
  • Elections
  • Passage of legislation
  • Ruling in a court case
  • Holidays
  • Geographic Locations of vulnerability
  • Contested regions
  • Symbolic significance
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