Predictors

1

• Predictors
• Observed rainfall up to May.
• Predicted JJA rainfall forecast in May
• ECHAM 4.5 hindcast psst (1968-2001).
• Predictands
• Simulated wheat yield.
• JJASO rainfall.
• Cross-validation (34 years available)
• Select 30 years for training.
• 2 independent years for model selection.
• 2 independent years for skill estimate.
• 200 random selections.

2
Predictor JJA precip forecast May 1 EOF
Predictand Shire wheat yield 1 EOF
Cross-validated Anomaly correlation
Time-series (no CV)
3
Predictor JJA precip forecast May 1 EOF
Predictand Shire wheat yield 1 EOF
Cross-validated Anomaly correlation
Time-series (no CV)
4
Predictor JJA precip forecast May 1 EOF
Predictand Shire rainfall 2 EOFs
Cross-validated Anomaly correlation
Time-series (no CV)