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Urban Land-Use Transport Models State of
the Art Michael Wegener Spiekermann Wegener
(SW) Urban and Regional Research PROPOLIS Final
Seminar Brussels, 20 January 2004
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Cities
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1250
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1350
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1550
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1750
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1872
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1912
1900
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1925
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Frank Lloyd Wright Broadacre City

1934-58
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1960
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1990
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1990
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Why?
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The Problem It is increasingly becoming obvious
that the lifestyle practised in the cities of the
most affluent countries is not sustainable. People
in the richest countries consume significantly
more energy and resources per capita and produce
more greenhouse gases, noxious emissions and
waste than people in the poorest regions. This
imbalance has a distinct spatial and urban
dimension It is the consequence of
market-driven interaction between urban land use
and transport
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Land-Use Transport Interaction Urban land use
affects transport The spatial separation of
human activities requires travel and goods
transport. Example Suburbanisation of cities
is connected with increasing spatial division of
labour and so mobility.
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Land-Use Transport Interaction Urban transport
affects land use. The development of the
transport system influences the location
decisions of land-lords, investors, firms and
households. Example The private automobile has
made every corner of the metropolitan area almost
equally suitable as a place to live or work.
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Land-Use Transport Feedback Cycle
Trans- port
Land use
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Land-Use Transport Feedback Cycle
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Theory
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The Isolated State von Thünen, 1826
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Central Places Christaller, 1933
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Bid-Rent Theory Alonso, 1964
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Retail Location Huff, 1964
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Household Location Park Burgess, 1925
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Action Spaces Hägerstrand, 1970
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This trip pays! For these prices and this huge
choice I would drive anywhere. The travel costs
are easily recovered!
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Integration of Land Use and Transport
Planning
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Integration of Urban Land-Use and Transport
Planning Urban land use and transport are
closely interrelated. It is therefore
very important to forecast the likely impacts of
urban land use and transport policies.
Therefore only close integration and
co-ordination of land use and transport planning
will lead to an environmentally and socially
sustainable spatial urban development.
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Integration of Urban Land-Use and Transport
Planning There are three principal ways to
forecast those impacts (1) Ask people ('stated
preference') (2) Observe people ('revealed
preference') (3) Mathematical models Mathematical
models are the only method by which the effects
of individual policies can be analysed keeping
all other factors fixed.
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Urban Systems
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Urban Systems
Speed of change
Networks
Travel
Goods transport
Population
Employment
Workplaces
Housing
Land use
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20 Urban Models
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20 Urban Models Boyce Anas Landis Martine
z Simmonds Abraham, Hunt Miller, Hunt et
al. Prastacos Anderstig, Mattsson Miyamoto et
al. Wegener et al. Haag Putman Donnelly,
Hunt et al. Kim de la Barra Mackett Hensher
/Ton Echenique et al. Waddell
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20 Urban Models
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Comprehensiveness
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Model Structure
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Theory
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Equilibrium
Land use equilibrium
No land use equilibrium
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Model technique
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Operationality and Application
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Future Developments
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Future Developments Today there is a new interest
in land-use transport models - Environmental
legislation in the USA has triggered a new wave
of applications of urban land-use transport
models - In Europe, the European Commission has
funded a number of studies employ-ing urban
land-use transport models. - The MEPLAN, TRANUS
and DELTA models are being applied to an
increas-ing number of metropolitan areas.
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Future Developments However, there are important
challenges to meet this new demand (1) The
transport submodels used by most existing
land-use transport models do not use
state-of-the-art activity-based travel modelling
techniques. (2) The spatial resolution of most
existing land-use transport models is too coarse
to model environmental impacts and environmental
feedback.
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Activity-Based Modelling
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Environmental Impacts/Feedback
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Modelling environmental impacts Examples Air
distribution models modelling two- or
three-dimensional distribution of pollutants from
emission sources require raster data of emission
sources, elevation and surface characteristics
such as green space, built-up area and high-rise
buildings. Noise propagation models modelling
pro-pagation of noise from emission sources
require raster data on emission sources,
topography, land cover and sound barriers such as
dams, walls or buildings.
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Modelling environmental feedback
No spatial disaggregation
Spatial disaggregation of output
Spatial disaggregation of input
Zonal data
Zonal data
Zonal data
Aggregate land-use transport model
Aggregate land-use transport model
Aggregate land-use transport model
Aggregate land-use transport model
Spatial disaggregation
Zonal environmental impact model
Spatial disaggregation
Microsimulation land-use transport model
Disaggregate environmental impact model
Disaggregate environmental impact model
Few impacts Limited feedback
All impacts Limited feedback
All impacts All feedbacks
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Environmental impacts/feedback
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Urban Land-Use Transport Models and GIS
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GIS functions for urban models
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Conclusions
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Conclusions (1) Sustainability and equity issues
have led to a new interest in urban land-use
transport models. However, to provide answers to
these new policy questions poses new challenges
to urban land-use transport models. Urban
land-use transport (LT) models need to be
extended to land-use transport and environment
(LTE) models. Urban land-use transport and
environment models need to have a higher spatial
reso-lution and incorporate more disaggregate
social and economic behaviour.
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Conclusions (2) Urban land-use transport and
environment models should show the equity effects
of urban land use and transport policies. Urban
land-use transport and environment models should
be linked with multicriteria and cost-benefit
evaluation tools. Urban land-use transport and
environment models models should apply
visualisation tools to visualise the results to
policy makers and planners.
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