1 What and how are activities contributing to improvement of models and model development, such as t

1
Actionable approach to understanding

• 1) What and how are activities contributing to
  improvement of models and model development, such
  as through improved knowledge and understanding
  of processes?
• 2) What and how are activities contributing
  towards developing a climate information system,
  with optimization of observations, analysis,
  attribution, diagnostics and assessment?

2
Global warming is unequivocalAdaptation to
climate change

• Assess vulnerability
• Devise coping strategies
• Determine impacts of possible changes
• Plan for future changes
• Requires information

3
Future needs Observations and Analysis

• Observations in situ and from space (that
  satisfy the climate observing principles)
• A performance tracking system
• Climate Data Records (CDRs)
• The ingest, archival, stewardship of data, data
  management
• Access to data
• Data processing and analysis
• The analysis and reanalysis of the observations
  and derivation of products,
• Data assimilation and model initialization

4
Future needs Models

• Data assimilation and model initialization
• Better, more complete models
• Assessment of what has happened and why
  (attribution) including likely impacts on human
  and eco-systems
• Prediction of near-term climate change over
  several decades ensembles
• Statistical models applications
• Downscaling, regional information
• Responsiveness to decision makers and users.

5
Imperative A climate information system

• Observations forcings, atmosphere, ocean, land
• Analysis comprehensive, integrated, products
• Assimilation model based, initialization
• Attribution understanding, causes
• Assessment global, regions, impacts, planning
• Predictions multiple time scales
• Decision Making impacts, adaptation

An Integrated Earth System Information System
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Climate Information System

• Trenberth, 2008 WMO Bull Nature 6
  December 2007

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The climate is changing It is likely to continue
to change! Regardless of the success of
mitigation actions We need a comprehensive
information system to

• Observe and track the climate changes and
  forcings as they occur.
• Analyze global products (with models)
• Understand the changes and their origins
• Validate and improve models
• Initialize models predict future developments
• Assess impacts regionally on environment, human
  activities and sectors such as agriculture,
  energy, fisheries, water resources, etc.
• Such a system will be invaluable regardless of
  magnitude of global warming
• T et al 2002

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Climate Information System WOAP role

• Evaluating observations and promoting their
  reprocessing and reanalysis into global fields.
• Advocating improved observations and analysis
  suitable for climate (satisfying the climate
  principles that are designed to ensure continuity
  of record). This especially includes those from
  space.
• Developing analytical and diagnostic techniques
  to process observations and model data, and
  facilitate their comparison and evaluation.
• Develop capabilities that contribute to an
  operational attribution activity that carries out
  studies and numerical experimentation in near
  real time to allow reliable statements to be made
  not only about what the state of the climate is,
  but also why it is the way it is.

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Climate Information System WOAP role (cont)

• Improving initializing of coupled models for
  prediction
• Modelers need to make demands on observations
  needed to improve predictions
• Developing new products and datasets, often high
  level derived products, for use in understanding
  and analyzing climate variability and change, and
  for evaluating models.
• Making these available through the internet via
  web pages.

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Climate Information System WOAP role

• Observations advocating improved observations
  and analysis suitable for climate (satisfying the
  climate principles that are designed to ensure
  continuity of record). This especially includes
  those from space.
• Data set development evaluating observations and
  promoting their reprocessing and reanalysis into
  global fields. Developing new products and
  datasets.
• Model datasets promoting numerical
  experimentation
• Making data available through the internet.
• Diagnostics developing analytical and diagnostic
  techniques to process observations and model
  data, and facilitate their comparison and
  evaluation. New products.

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Attribution

• WCRP scientists have carried out many studies on
  mechanisms and modes of variability that have
  contributed to observed climate anomalies.
• This helps develop capabilities that contribute
  to an operational attribution activity by
  pioneering studies and numerical experimentation
  that might be used in near real time to allow
  reliable statements to be made not only about
  what the state of the climate is, but also why it
  is the way it is.
• Studies involve the atmosphere and the fully
  coupled system.

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Climate Information System WOAP role continued

• Attribution develop capabilities that contribute
  to attribution capability via studies and
  numerical experimentation to allow reliable
  statements to be made not only about what the
  state of the climate is, but also why it is the
  way it is and the mechanisms involved.
• Predictability and prediction PDO, NAO, AMOC
  improve initialization of models, improve
  observations for this purpose regional models
  (downscaling).
• High impact events and extremes exploring
  drought, flooding, precipitation intensity and
  frequency, hurricanes, storms
• Model evaluations model vs observations water
  and energy cycles, forcings

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Requirements

• Observations (that satisfy the climate observing
  principles)
• a performance tracking system
• the ingest, archival, stewardship of data, data
  management
• access to data
• the analysis and reanalysis of the observations
  and derivation of products,
• Climate Data Records (CDRs)
• assessment of what has happened and why
  (attribution) including likely impacts on human
  and eco-systems
• prediction of near-term climate change over
  several decades
• responsiveness to decision makers and users.

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• The challenge is to better determine
• how the climate system is changing
• how the forcings are changing
• how these relate to each other (incl. feedbacks)
• attribution of anomalies to causes
• what they mean for the immediate and more distant
  future (assessment)
• Validate and improve models
• seamless predictions on multiple time scales
• how to use this information for informed planning
  and decision making
• how to manage the data and reanalyze it routinely
• how to disseminate products around the world
• how to interact with users and stakeholders and
  add regional value
• From Trenberth et al 2002

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Information System
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Observations

• WCRP advocates improved observations and analysis
  suitable for climate (satisfying the climate
  principles that are designed to ensure continuity
  of record). This especially includes those from
  space.
• WCRP evaluates observations and promotes their
  reprocessing and reanalysis into global fields.

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Analysis

• WCRP develops analytical and diagnostic
  techniques to process observations and model
  data, and facilitates their comparison and
  evaluation.
• Value-added derived products are developed and
  archived and new datasets are made available.

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Assimilation

• WCRP/WOAP advocates analysis of observations into
  forms suitable for use in models and to
  initialize models.
• Assimilation enables reanalysis and model
  diagnostics that can be compared with
  observations to evaluate and improve the models.

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Attribution

• WCRP has carried out many studies on mechanisms
  and modes of variability that have contributed to
  observed climate anomalies.
• WCRP helps develop capabilities that contribute
  to an operational attribution activity by
  pioneering studies and numerical experimentation
  that might be used in near real time to allow
  reliable statements to be made not only about
  what the state of the climate is, but also why it
  is the way it is.
• Studies involve the atmosphere and the fully
  coupled system.

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Assessment

• WCRP uses the information from the analyses and
  other products to assess the state of the
  climate.
• Scientists participate in international (IPCC)
  assessments.

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Prediction and predictability

• Predictions are required on multiple time scales
  and it is evident from the inertia in the climate
  system and the forcings that there is some
  predictability associated with the initial state
  of the climate.
• Studies are carried out to assess the
  predictability associated with the initial state
  and thermal inertia, modes of variability,
  internal mechanisms and coupling among climate
  system components, and forcings.
• Evaluations of model strengths and weaknesses,
  possible improvements, comparisons among models
  and with observations and evaluations to score
  their results in multi-model ensembles are
  underway.
• Scientists are also involved in regional climate
  model studies using embedded models in order to
  adequately represent scales of motion thought to
  be important.

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Decision making

• WCRP contributes to how to reduce vulnerability
  and what the impacts will likely be associated
  with climate variability and change that in turn
  contribute to adaptation and risk assessment,
  such as to ecosystems, water resources, and
  communities.