Garrett County Total NonAgricultural Employment First Quarter 1996 through First Quarter 2003

1
Daytime Drama
On Behalf of MEDA
By Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. June 2,
2008
2
As the World Turns (more slowly)
3
Historic and Projected World Output Growth, 2004
through 2009
Source International Monetary Fund
2008-2009 data are projections
4
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global
Areas, 2008
Source International Monetary Fund
5
2008 Political and Economic Risk Map
Source Oxford Analytica
6
Global Risk Factors
Upside Risk to Global Growth
Downside Risk to Global Growth
Source International Monetary Fund
Chart indicates relative contributions to risks
to global growth WEO World Economic Outlook
(IMF)
7
Days of Our Lives
8
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
SurveySeptember 2001 through May 2008
Between Aug. 2005 and Sept. 2005, the consumer
sentiment index dropped 12.2 points, the largest
one-month decline since December 1980.
Source University of Michigan Dismal.com
9
Retail Food Services SalesJanuary 2001 through
April 2008
Source Dismal.com
10
15-Year 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January
1995 through April 2008
Source Freddie Mac
11
U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through April
2008
Source Economy.com, Census Bureau
12
U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999
through April 2008
Source Economy.com
13
U.S. Existing Home Sales September 2001 through
April 2008
Source Economy.com
14
Change in Average Home Price by Maryland
JurisdictionApril 2007 vs. April 2008
Source Maryland Association of Realtors
15
Change in Unit Sales by Maryland
JurisdictionApril 2007 vs. April 2008
Source Maryland Association of Realtors
16
Current Hot Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual
Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation
2007Q1 vs. 2008Q1
Baltimore -3.0 Boston -7.8 New
York -3.9 Philadelphia -0.7 Washington,
D.C. -13.1
Source National Association of Realtors
U.S. -7.7 in 2008Q1
17
Worst Performing Metro Housing Markets (150)
Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price
Appreciation 2007Q1 vs. 2008Q1
Source National Association of Realtors
U.S. -7.7 in 2008Q1
18
Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA
Jurisdiction, April 2007 vs. April 2008
Source Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland April 2007 42,401 April 2008 50,048
19
Active Housing Inventory by Suburban MD
Jurisdiction, April 2007 vs. April 2008
Source Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland April 2007 42,401 April 2008 50,048
20
Mortgage Bankers Association Delinquency Rates,
Prime Mortgage Loans, 2005Q1 through 2007Q4
Source Economy.com
The delinquency rate does not include loans in
the process of foreclosure.  The percentage of
loans in the foreclosure process was 2.04
percent of all loans outstanding at the end of
the fourth quarter, an increase of 35 basis
points from the third quarter of 2007 and 85
basis points from one year ago.
21
Mortgage Bankers Association Delinquency Rates,
Subprime Mortgage Loans, 2005Q1 through 2007Q4
Source Economy.com
The delinquency rate does not include loans in
the process of foreclosure.  The percentage of
loans in the foreclosure process was 2.04
percent of all loans outstanding at the end of
the fourth quarter, an increase of 35 basis
points from the third quarter of 2007 and 85
basis points from one year ago.
22
NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S.
DollarsJanuary 1995 through May 20, 2008
Source Energy Information Administration
23
U.S. Personal Savings Rate vs. NYMEX Crude Oil
Prices, January 2002 through March 2008
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis Energy
Information Administration
24
CPIApril 2008
CPI 3.9 Core CPI 2.3
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
Core CPI All items less food and energy
25
CPI, Select Food Beverage ProductsApril 2008
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
26
U.S. Trade Deficit, January 2001 through March
2008
Source Dismal.com
27
Value of the Dollar (Broad Dollar Index) January
1999 through April 2008
Source Federal Reserve Board
Broad Dollar Index a weighted average of the
foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar
against the currencies of a broad group of major
U.S. trading partners.
28
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2010
Source Congressional Budget Office
2007-2010 data are projections
29
Guiding Light
30
Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2008Q1
2008Q1 0.90
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
31
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component, 2008Q1
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
Marylands merchandise export shipments totaled
8.9 billion in 2007, up 81 percent from the
2003 total of 4.9 billion.
32
Contributions to Gross Investment Growth by
Component, 2008Q1
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
33
Dow Jones Industrial Average January 2003
through May 20, 2008
Source Dow Jones
34
Corporate Profits (SAAR)2001Q1 through 2007Q4
Source BEA
With inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
35
Wage/Salary Disbursements vs. Corporate Profits
Share of U.S. GDP, 1998 through 2008
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
36
Net Change in U.S. JobsJanuary 2000 through
April 2008
4/08 -20,000
Over the last 12 months (April to April) the U.S.
added 462,000 jobs
Source Economy.com, Bureau of Labor Statistics
37
National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector
GroupsApril 2007 v. April 2008Absolute Change
462k All Told
Bush Scorecard Private Sector
3,799,000 Public Sector 1,550,000 Total
5,349,000
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
38
Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector
Groups April 2007 v. April 2008
Absolute
Change
MD Total 30.0K 1.2 US Total 462K 0.3
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
39
Middle Class Occupation Growth in Maryland,
Select Occupations2003-2007
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
Assumptions Middle class households earn
between 45,000 and 95,000 per annum, with 1.4
workers per household
40
Baltimore MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry
Sector Groups (NSA) April 2007 v. April
2008Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total 11.1K 0.8 MD
Total 30.0K 1.2 US Total 462K 0.3
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
41
Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employmentby
Industry Sector Groups (NSA)April 2007 v. April
2008Absolute Change
DC MSA Total 28.4K 1.0 US Total 462K
0.3
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
42
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) April 2008

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. unemployment rate April 5.0
43
Unemployment Rates (NSA), Maryland CountiesMarch
2008
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
44
Search for Tomorrow

• Maryland economy set to slow as housing market
  weakness continues and as employers become more
  defensive
• Second half of year could be worse than the
  first
• The macroeconomic imbalances are huge and
  widening and
• The Federal Reserve Chairman has and will come
  under enormous criticism.

45
Thank You

• You can always reach me at abasu_at_sagepolicy.com
• If you appreciate this type of information and
  would like regular updates, please see our
  newsletter service at www.spgtrend.com
• Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at
  410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE)
• Please contact us when you require economic
  research policy analysis.