Climate Forecast Tools for Livestock Producers

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Climate Forecast Tools for Livestock Producers

• Norman Breuer and Kenny Broad (UM)
• Carla Roncoli and Todd Crane (UGA)
• Clyde Fraisse and Peter E. Hildebrand (UF)
• Victor Cabrera (NMSU)
• Presented at the NOAA CDWS Tallahassee October
  2007

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Outline

• Three Case Studies
• Beef Cattle in NC Florida
• Dairy DSS Process
• Beef Cattle and Forage DSS Process
• Lessons
• Challenges

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Livestock and Forage in Florida

• 1.7 million head of cattle and calves
• Cattle and calves 330M
• Milk and milk products 371M
• Forage and hay 516M
• Total 1.22B

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Livestock and Forage in Florida

• Frequent drought conditions
• Severe drought in 2006 and 2007 caused pasture
  and hay shortage
• 2006 hay production was record low for the past
  20 years
• Most cattlemen were forced to feed supplements
• Hay farmers experiencing high fertilizer prices
• To cope with drought, ranchers were weaning early
  or selling off some animals at lower than average
  weights

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Research Sites
Case Studies
Dairy
Beef Cattle
Cow-calf
Map Google Earth
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Methodology
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SECC Co-Development Framework
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Beef Cattle North Central Florida
Case study 1

• Four Sondeos (multidisciplinary, conversational,
  rapid team surveys) conducted, 1999-2001
• Linear program developed from secondary data,
  Sondeo information, and interviews
• Models calibrated using Participatory Linear
  Programming (PLP)
• DSSAT and Ceres used for summer and winter
  pasture crop models, respectively, and connected
  to the model through stocking rate

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Steps in Participatory DSS Building
Case study 2

• Identify needs through initial contacts with
  producers
• Create or adapt models
• Develop prototype DSS using secondary data
• Discuss model with stakeholders

Cabrera, Breuer et al. 2006, submitted
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Steps in Participatory DSS Building
Case study 2

• Include farmers, consultants, extension agents,
  government officials, and university faculty in
  process
• Elicit input on structure and function of
  systems, coefficients, parameters, and individual
  modules
• Develop final DSS and return to stakeholders for
  validation

Cabrera, Breuer et al. 2006, submitted
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Dairy DS participation in North Florida
Case study 2

• We conducted
• 26 separate stakeholder interactions of
• different types (Sondeos, focus groups,
• meetings)
• 90 persons of which
• 38 were farmers or farm managers

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Social Learning
Case study 3

• Collective action rather than individual
• Issues and activities of central concern to
  community members
• Scientists, practitioners, and producers
  co-develop technologies
• Increased likelihood of adaptation through
  adoption of climate-based DSS

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Background
Case study 3

• Declining profits
• Increased cost of energy (pumping)
• Increased transportation cost
• Pressure from increasing land prices
• Variable climate
• Frequent drought or flood

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Learning Community
Case study 3

• Buck Island Ranch - MacArthur Agro-ecology
  Research Center
• Ona Range Cattle Research and Education Center
• Private cattle ranchers in the vicinity

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Learning Community
Case study 3

• Objective
• Develop methods to help cattle ranching remain
  viable in South Florida with climate-based DSS
• For this strong climate component needed

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Cow-Calf Production in SFLDrought and Flood
Case study 3

• An old-timer saying goes In SFL you are never
  more than 3 days away from a flood or 3 weeks
  away from a drought.
• Research needed
• Climate-production relationships
• Climate and ranch economics
• Potential for hay production
• Sod production
• Sale of water retention or release rights to SFWMD

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Framework for Social Learning Process
Case study 3
Adapted from Christensen and Sriskandarajah 2006
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Expected Results of Social Learning
Case study 3

• Development of local capacity
• Increased understanding of relationship between
  climate and rates of conception in cows and
  growth rate of calves
• Operational, open access DSS
• Scientific papers
• Sustainability of industry (label of origin)

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Results
Beef cattle CFL
Dairy cattle NFL
Beef cattle SFL
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Climate-based forecasts could aid ranch
management decisions
Case study 1

• Planting and fertilizing rye-grass mixtures only
  in years when good stocking possibilities exist
• Savings from buying hay ahead of time before a
  dry, cold winter
• More plentiful stocking during good rainfall
  winters

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In dairy, ENSO phases affect nitrogen leaching
and biomass production
Case study 2

• N-leaching is 10 higher during El Niño years
• N-leaching is closely correlated with
  ENSO-related with occurrence of extreme rainfall
  events
• Potential responses are adjusting crop sequences
  to increase N-uptake while maintaining biomass
  necessary for production

Cabrera, Breuer et al. 2006
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Lessons

• Participation is a good beginning
• Social learning is a logical progression from
  past research
• Potential adaptations exist
• Co-development aids adoption
• Value of climate information may be easier to
  measure community level where adaptations can be
  well documented

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Challenges and Opportunities

• Cow-calf is different from single crop
• Multiple variables require better statistical
  methods
• Climate plays an important role
• Users are intensely interested
• A multidisciplinary approach is needed
• Learning communities must be facilitated in order
  to develop