Collar County GROWTH TRENDS Greater Minnesota Housing Fund October 2004 Data Sources: U.S. Census De

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Collar County GROWTH TRENDS Greater
Minnesota Housing FundOctober 2004Data
SourcesU.S. Census Department -- Tom Gillaspy,
Minnesota State Demographer --Minnesota
Department of Revenue John Kari, Metropolitan
Council -- Minnesota Housing Finance Agency --
Greater Minnesota Housing FundAmerigis -- BBC
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The Region is Expanding
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Metropolitan Area 1950 Census
4 Counties
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic
Metropolitan Council
4
Metropolitan Area 1970 Census
5 Counties
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic
Metropolitan Council
5
Metropolitan Area 1990 Census
Sherburne
Chisago
Wright
11 Counties
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic
Metropolitan Council
6
Metropolitan Area 2000 Census
Isanti
Sherburne
Chisago
Wright
13 Counties
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic
Metropolitan Council
7
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Minnesota
Department of Administration, State Demographic
Center
8
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Minnesota
Department of Administration, State Demographic
Center
9

Prairie areas are losing Population.
Urban areas are gaining Population.
Shifts are occurring throughout the multi-state
region
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Minnesota
Department of Administration, State Demographic
Center
10

Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Minnesota
Department of Administration, State Demographic
Center
11
Reasons for Minnesotas Strong Population Growth

• More moved here.
• Immigration!
• Births up, remain high.
• Life expectancy is up.
• Expect further growth.

Source Minnesota Department of Administration,
State Demographic Center
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Collar County Growth Areas Grew In 1990s Growth
Was Modest Elsewhere
Growth Corridor Counties
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Greater
Minnesota Housing Fund
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Seven Of The 13 Metro Counties In Top 100
Growing Counties Nationally
Source U.S. Census Bureau Estimates
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Population Trends Projected to Accelerate over
the Next 25 Years
Source Minnesota Department of Administration,
State Demographic Center
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Population 1980
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
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Population 1990
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
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Population 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
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Population 2010 (Projected)
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
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Population 2020 (Projected)
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
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Population 2030 (Projected)
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
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Population 1980
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
22
Population 1990
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
23
Population 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
24
Population 2010 (Projected)
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
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Population 2020 (Projected)
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
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Population 2030 (Projected)
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Dahlgren,
Shardlow and Uban
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A Growth Corridor Example Saint Michael
Population Growth
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Source Minneapolis Star Tribune (June 12, 2004).
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Highest Household Growth
Percentage Change in Number of Households 1990
to 2000
Highest percentage change in Sherburne, Cass,
Chisago and Wright counties
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Greater
Minnesota Housing Fund
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Regional Household Change 2000-2003
Source Metropolitan Council
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Regional Household Change 2000-2003
Source Metropolitan Council
32
Regional Household Change 2000-2003
Source Metropolitan Council
33
HH Change 90-00

• Greatest Pockets of Change
• Intersection of 169 and Highway 10
• I-94 St. Michael-Albertville, Saint Cloud
• I-35 North Branch

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Every New HH Needs a Home

Extremely High New Housing Start Rates
Source
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Every New HH Needs a Home

High Number of New Home Starts
Source
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A Growth Corridor Example Saint Michael
Housing Starts
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2000 Cenus
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Minnesota
Department of Administration, State Demographic
Center
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2010 Projected
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Minnesota
Department of Administration, State Demographic
Center
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HH Loss
Counties with Net Loss of HH 1990-2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Greater
Minnesota Housing Fund
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Aging Trends
41
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Minnesota
Department of Administration, State Demographic
Center
42
Source U.S. Census Bureau Graphic Minnesota
Department of Administration, State Demographic
Center
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No Kids
No Kids
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Employment
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Job growth over timeMinnesota - Statewide
Statewide Job Levels Creeping Back to 2001 High
Source Minnesota Department of Employment and
Economic Development (DEED) Graphic Greater
Minnesota Housing Fund
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Job Growth Strong Along I-94 and I-35 Corridors
Percentage Change in Labor Force 1990 to 2000
Source Minnesota Department of Employment and
Economic Development (DEED) Graphic Greater
Minnesota Housing Fund
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Job Growth Central Minnesota Counties 2000 - 2003
Central MN 8,000 Jobs In 3 Yrs
Benton
Chisago
Wright
Sherburne
Pine
Isanti
Source DEED Quarterly Census of Wages in
Minnesota
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Healthy Industry Mix in Four Collar Counties
(Wright, Sherburne, Isanti and Chisago)
Construction
Manufacturing
Health / Educ
Prof.
Fin.
Jobs
Cos
Construction
Manuf
Prof.
H Ed
Earning Power (Wages) Varies Greatly by Type Of
Industry
Source Minnesota Economic Development Center
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Average Weekly Wage Lower in Four Collar Counties
(Wright, Sherburne, Isanti and Chisago)
Source Minnesota Economic Development Center
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Per Capita Income Changes in Four Collar Counties
(Wright, Sherburne, Isanti and Chisago)
Source Minnesota Economic Development Center
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Housing Needs
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Costs Beyond Reach
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Growth Corridor Counties
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Growth Corridor Counties
Impact of High Housing Costs And Lower Wage Rates
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Impact of High Housing Costs And Lower Wage Rates
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2003 BBC HOUSING NEED SUMMARY

• Greater Minnesota will have a shortfall of 10,600
  affordable units from 2000 to 2010 after state
  and foundation funding
• Twin Cities metro will have a shortfall of 22,300
  affordable units from 2000 to 2010
• Combined shortfall of 32,800 affordable units
  from 2000 to 2010

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2010 HH Not Served by Private Market
Wright, Sherburne and Stearns Counties among
highest need in the state.
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Homeless Persons by Region
Wilder Foundation 2003 Homeless Study
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Regional Commute Patterns
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Regional Commuters
County Residents Who Commute to Jobs in Metro
Area 2000
Source Metropolitan Council
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Adjacent County Commuters to Metro

• 99,000 in 2000
• 6.3 of 1,563,000 Metro Area employment
• 61,000 in 1990
• 4.8 of 1,273,000 Metro Area employment
• 37,000 in 1980
• 18,000 in 1970

Source Metropolitan Council
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Metro Commuters into Adjacent Counties

• 18,300 in 2000
• 8.9 of 205,000 Adjacent County employment
• 10,000 in 1990
• 6.9 of 145,000 Adjacent County employment
• 5,500 in 1980
• 2,200 in 1970

Source Metropolitan Council
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Commuters Into Metro 1970-2000
60
50
40
Isanti
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source Metropolitan Council
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Minneapolis Downtown Workforce 2000
Destination Minneapolis CBD
Workers from Adjacent Counties 5,696 4.1
138,069
Source Metropolitan Council
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St. Paul Downtown Workforce 2000
Destination Saint Paul CBD
Workers from Adjacent Counties 2,628 5.9
45,289
Source Metropolitan Council
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Golden Triangle Workforce 2000
Destination Eden Prairie, Chanhassen, Chaska
Workers from Adjacent Counties 2,557 5.7
45,266
Source Metropolitan Council
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Highway 55 West Workforce 2000
Destination West Suburban
Workers from Adjacent Counties 5,020 11
44,768
Source Metropolitan Council
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Adjacent County Commuters 2000
Source Metropolitan Council
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Land Use and Development Patterns
70
Land Cover 2000
Source Metropolitan Council
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Land Cover 1990
Source Metropolitan Council
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Residential Building Permits 1970-2003
Adjacent Counties 18.7
Metro Area 81.3
710,572 Total Building Permits (19 counties)
Source Metropolitan Council
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Adjacent County Share of Residential Building
Permits 1970-2003
Source Metropolitan Council
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1 Unit per 10 Acres
Indicator Housing Development 1 Unit Per 10
Acres 1970 - 2000
Isanti
Chisago
Sherburne
Before 1970
Wright
1970-1990
1990-2000
Sustainable Land Use? Pop 80 vs Dev Acres 160
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Graphic Ameregis
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1 Unit per 20 Acres
Indicator 1970 - 2000 Housing Development 1 Unit
Per 20 Acres
Before 1970
1970-1990
1990-2000
Sustainable Land Use? Pop 80 vs Dev Acres 260
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Graphic Ameregis
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Growth Corridor Counties
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Growth in Estimated Market Value 1993-2001
Only Gradual Change in Values Until 2000 Then a
boom in values.
Source Minnesota Department of Revenue
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Change in EMV 1996-97
Source Minnesota Department of Revenue
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Change in EMV 1997-98
Source Minnesota Department of Revenue
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Change in EMV 1998-99
Source Minnesota Department of Revenue
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Change in EMV 1999-00
Source Minnesota Department of Revenue
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Change in EMV 2000-01
HIGH RATE OF VALUE INCREASE
Source Minnesota Department of Revenue
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Change in EMV 2001-02
HIGH RATES OF VALUE INCREASE
Source Minnesota Department of Revenue
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Change in EMV 2002-03
Source Minnesota Department of Revenue
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Change in EMV 1993-2003
Source Minnesota Department of Revenue
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Change in EMV 1993-03
Source Minnesota Department of Revenue
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Growth Corridor Example Saint Michael Land
Prices
80,000 Per Lot
25,000 Per Lot
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• Annual land value rise exceeded 10 annually in
  Collar Counties and Lakes Region.
• Future demand and development in these areas
  expected to keep land values
• on the rise

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Land Cost Affects Home Price

• Land Prices Escalating Dramatically in High
  Growth Areas
• Higher Land / Home Prices Less Affordability
• Creates added barriers to workforce housing,
  economic vitality

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Conclusion..
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Conclusion

• Growth Corridors will continue to grow
• After 2010 baby boomers retire tax revenues
  spending will be lower
• Cities and Counties will be more pressed for
  revenue.
• It is essential to make public investments that
  produce sustainable patterns of development

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End