The Project Planning of Urban Decongestion A contingent valuation methodology of making scenarios

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The Project Planning of Urban Decongestion A
contingent valuation methodology of making
scenarios

• Lucia Tangari, Michele Ottomanelli, Domenico
  Sassanelli
• Polytechnic of Bari
• Department of Highways and Transportation

7th International Conference on Design Decision
Support Systems In Architecture and Urban
Planning 2-5 July 2004 Ruwenberg The
Netherlands
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INTRODUCTION
The increase of the private mobility has
generated serious problems of congestion The
transport demand goes on increasing with a higher
growth rate than that of new roads construction
and/or that of the exiting network facilities In
order to limit congestion urban planning should
be integrated with specific planning and control
of mobility The solutions to be adopted may
change according to the dimension and the scheme
of the examined urban area, as well as the
available options of transport and to the factors
which arouse the same congestion
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AIM
SIMULATION MODELS IN ORDER TO DEFINE AND EVALUATE
PROJECT SCENARIO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A METHODOLOGY TO SUPPORT
POLICY-MAKERS DECISION FOR THE EVALUATION OF A
TRANSPORT SYSTEM
URBAN TRANSPORT DECONGESTION PLANNING ACTIVITIES
TRANSPORT SYSTEM USER INFORMATION AND EVALUATION
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OUTLINE

• Interventions planning
• Urban highways and parking policies
• Heavy roadways and the collective transport
  system
• Analysis Methodology
• Simulation models
• Contingent valuation method
• A case of study
• FIRST PHASE the transport system and the project
  scenarios
• SECOND PHASE the survey
• THIRD PHASE the choice
• Conclusions

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Interventions planning

• To rationally retrain urban area through a
  correct analysis of the accessibility needs
  correlated with the land use
• To plan interventions to reach a balanced split
  of travel demand between private transport and
  transit
• To plan interventions in order to obtain the
  availability of urban area coherently and
  compatibly with the user expectations

SUPPLY SYSTEM
DEMAND SYSTEM
Urban highways Heavy roadways
BETTER ACCESSIBILITY
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Urban highways and parking policies

• Urban highwyas for the
• private transport system
• Parking policies for the
• private transport system

• Corridors towards urban core
• Road pricing
• Modal interchange structures
• New parking facilities in the area characterized
  by heavy demand given by
• typology
• number
• localization
• capacity
• fare policy
• enforcement

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Heavy roadways and the transit transport system

• Strategic interventions, such as urban light
  railways, characterized by high costs and long
  time of construction
• The transit facilities may influence the economic
  vocations of the interested areas and may produce
  remarkable benefits on the community
• The light rails and the fast tramcars can be
  easily included in the urban context
• The rational concept of transit system may also
  aim to the urban core conversion into pedestrian
  precincts (car-free zones)

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Analysis Methodology

• To plan projects on the transport system to
  reduce congestion effects in the urban area
• To define possible programs of intervention on
  the transport system depending on the main
  parameters relevant to the intervention
  typologies
• Impacts evaluation by the means of simulation
  models
• Comparison among the alternative scenarios
• Application of a Contingent Valuation procedure
  based on final user opinion
• Policy-maker choice

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Simulation models

• The simulation models allow to estimate the
  possible advantages consequent of projects in the
  urban area based on empirical kwnowledge of the
  given area
• The simulation models allow to define the
  configuration in which demand flows are more
  profitable for the transport actors
• By comparing the examined scenarios these models
  allow to define an ordered list where the
  scenario with the highest probability to produce
  benefits is first on the list

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Project scenarios evaluation methodology
Flow-chart
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Contingent Valuation method (CV)

• The contingent valuation method is a stated
  preference technique which, on the basis of a
  sample surveys, uses the interviewed persons
  statements to directly understand their
  preferences
• The CV method uses the information related to the
  different configurations of the urban mobility
  system given by the interviewed people
• The CV method gives a final estimate of utility
  function referred to a specific transport system
  scenario

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The contingent valuation survey phases
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A case of study
Bari
The metropolitan area of Bari
We assume that the metropolitan area of Bari is
constituted of the city of Bari and the
neighbouring cities of Giovinazzo, Bitonto,
Modugno, Bitritto, Adelfia, Valenzano, Capurso,
Triggiano, Noicattaro and Mola The study area is
characterized by high value of traffic, high home
density and intense socio-economic activities
Surface 514.000 ha Resident population
1.560.000 inhab. Bari town population 316.000
inhab.
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A case of study (cont.)
FIRST PHASE The transport system and The
project scenarios
SECOND PHASE The survey
THIRD PHASE The final choice
Definition of project scenarios in order to
reduce metropolitan area congestion
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FIRST PHASEthe transport system and the project
scenarios
FIRST PHASE
FIRST STEP
SECOND STEP
THIRD STEP
FOUR STEP
DEMAND ANALYSIS
COMPARISON AMONG SCENARIOS (Multi-criteria
analysis)
SUPPLY ANALYSIS
TERRITORY ANALYSIS
DEFINITION OF PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS 1.
Railway transport 2. Fast collective
transport system 3. Parking facilities
4. Road network 5. Port 6. Airport 7.
Intermodal terminal

• social aspects
• economic aspects
• politic aspects
• environmental aspects

SIMULATION MODELS
ORDERED LIST
IMPACTS VALUATION
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SECOND PHASEthe survey

• Stated preferences approach
• Conjoint choice experiments to study user
  responsenses to the proposed scenarios obtained
  by mixing different interventions
• Survey administered both in person and by
  internet by proposing of questionnaire
• The final sample is comprised of individuals
  resident in city of Bari (67) and individuals
  resident in the cities of metropolitan area (33)

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Scenario choice Now, we would like to ask you to
choose between two project scenarios to reduce
congestion in the metropolitan area of Bari. For
each question, you will be described two
scenarios and will be asked to choose which one
you believe is better between these two
scenarios, based on the characteristics of the
scenarios. In answering the following questions,
please remember that the choice of the project
scenario will involve the engagement from the
public administration top ut into effect such
configuration for a solution of the area
congestion and the payment of one special tax to
delay in the corse of ten years. We repeat that
this special tax would cover only a part of the
total project costs, 30, and not the total
project costs. The tax would be proportion the
family income. Please be assured that your
answers will be kept strictly confidential.
CHOICE 1
Which scenario do you find better between A and
B? A ? B ? If you were choose between A,
B, and the option of not participating in either
of the two scenarios, which would you
choose? A ? B ? Neither ?
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The econometric model

• The observed variable is dicotomic (we consider
  I prefer scenario A0, I prefer scenario
  B1), and it is dependent on categorial and/or
  quantitative variables Xj (with c alternatives)
• If the error terms e are independent and
  identically distributed, the probability Pr that
  alternative (h0,1) of Y is chosen by sample
  individual with j of X alternative is
• Pr(resp. i chooses h) exp (Xj , ß) /
  ?kj1 exp (Xj ,ß)
• where X is a vector (j x k) of
  explicative variables, ß is a vector (kxj) of
  valued parameters
• This is the contribution to the likelihood
  function in a Logit Model

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RESULTSdescriptive statistics of respondents

• The majority of the respondents (56,3) were
  male, and the average age was 35
• The respondents were medium-highly educated
  49,3 had a secondary school-leaving certificate
  and about 10 of the sample had a college degree
• The majority of respondents were students (31,3)
  or employees (23,5)
• The family was constituted of 2 - 4 components
  having a salary between 1.000,00 - 2.000,00
  (60,4)

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RESULTS mobility statistics of respondents

• The majority of respondents (73) indicated to
  have at least a car, which is used as a regular
  travel mode (58,3) followed by bus (12,1) and
  motorcycle (11,9)
• The time for travels is less 30min for 56 and
  between 30min -1 hour for 27,9
• The predominant purposes for travel are work
  (42,7) and study (30,8)
• The travel frequency is high too (5/6 times in a
  week, 54,8) and it is in the time period between
  6.30 a.m. -8.30 a.m. (56,1), and 8.30 a.m.
  -10.00 a.m. (14,8)

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Analysis of the responses
Transport user preferences among scenarios
Scenario A1 has the higher preference, even if it
is characterized from the higher annual tax, but
it allows to obtain the higher capability to
reduce the area congestion The survey shows the
respondents indicated their own choice
preferences apart from economic characteristic of
scenarios, giving more importance to the planning
and qualitatives ones
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Comparison among scenarios
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THIRD PHASEthe final choice
The final decision of which project scenario
should be adopted to attenuate the congestion of
metropolitan area of Bari is due to the Public
Administration
Project scenario list obtained from
multicriteria analysis (1st phase)
Project scenario list obtained from conjoint
choice exercises (2nd phase)
FINAL CHOICE
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Conclusions

• The proposed methodology supports the public
  administration in a better transport system
  planning
• The proposed methodology allows policy-makers to
  obtain realistic indications since it is based on
  users behavior analysis
• In the scenarios valuation of the transport
  system we obtain useful information on successful
  probability of a decongestion project
• In addition, the method gives also information
  about both the value that users associate to the
  intervention and the users willingness to
  economically support it.

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THATS ALL FOLKS
?
and thanks!