Kyoto Protocol: Negotiations and Implementation

1
Kyoto Protocol Negotiationsand Implementation
API Seminar (October 13)

• October 13, 2006
• Hironori HAMANAKA
• Professor, Keio University
• Faculty of Environment and Information Studies

2
Topics for Discussion

• Evolution of climate change regime
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
  (UNFCCC)
• Negotiations under the Berlin Mandate and the
  adoption of the Kyoto Protocol
• Negotiations on the implementing rules of the
  Kyoto Protocol
• Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol
• International climate regime beyond 2012

3
Evolution of Climate Change Regime

• Framework Convention (1992)
• Berlin Mandate (COP1, 1995)
• Kyoto Protocol (COP3, 1997)
• Buenos Aires Plan of Action (COP4, 1998)
• Bonn Agreement (COP6-bis, 2001)
• Marrakech Accords (COP7, 2001)
• Entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol (2005)

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UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC, 1992)

• The ultimate objective
• Principles
• Commitments
• Those common to all Parties.
• Those added to Annex I Parties
• Non-binding aim, and the periodical review of
  the adequacy of commitments.
• Financial assistance and technology transfer.
• National communication/ review mechanism

5
Berlin Mandate

• COP1 agreed to begin a process to take
  appropriate action including the strengthening
  of the Annex I Parties commitments.
• The process will, inter alia
• (a) Aim, for Annex I Parties, both
• - to elaborate policies and measures, as
  well as
• - to set quantified limitation and
  reduction objectives for their GHG
  emissions/removals.
• (b) Not introduce any new commitments for
  non-Annex I Parties.

6
Major negotiating issues in the AGBM process

• Quantified emission limitation and reduction
  objectives (QELROs).
• Bubble (Joint fulfillment).
• Sinks.
• Joint implementation, emissions trading.
• Policies and measures.
• Voluntary commitments by developing countries.

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Kyoto Protocol

• Legally binding targets for Annex I Parties
• Japan 6, U.S. 7, EU 8, etc.
• GHGs CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs,SF6.
• Base year 1990 (Any Annex I Party may use 1995
  for HFCs, PFCs and SF6)
• Commitment period20082012.
• Use of GHG removals by LULUCF activities.
• Introduction of flexible mechanisms Emissions
  trading, CDM, Joint implementation (JI).

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The role of major actors at negotiations on the
Kyoto Protocol

• EU led negotiations on targets by proposing 15
  uniform reduction.
• US successfully negotiated rules for achieving
  the targets, providing Parties with
  flexibilities.
• Japan managed to make COP3 a success by achieving
  an agreement on the Kyoto Protocol.
• Developing countries successfully rejected a
  proposal for voluntary commitments .

9
Buenos Aires Plan of Action

• Work program to strengthen the implementation of
  the Convention
• Financial mechanism/ technology transfer.
• Implementation of Convention Art. 4.8 and 4.9.
• Work program on the implementing rules of the
  Protocol
• Kyoto mechanisms CDM, JI, Emissions trading.
• Sinks forestry and other LULUCF activities.
• Compliance procedures and mechanisms.
• Reporting and review under Protocol Art. 5, 7 and
  8.
• with a view to taking decisions on all Kyoto
  mechanisms at COP6.

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COP6 (The Hague, 2000)

• Parties could not reach an agreement, and decided
  to resume the session in 2001.
• Major areas of disagreement include
• Modalities for accounting sink credits.
• Eligibility of sink projects in the CDM.
• Rate of commitment period reserve to prevent
  over-selling of credits.
• Restoration rate of excess emissions.
• Legal nature of the consequences of
  non-compliance.

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Bush Administrations rejection of the Kyoto
Protocol

• Reasons for the rejection
• The Protocol exempted developing countries from
  binding targets.
• Implementing the Kyoto target hurt US economy.
• Efforts to re-engage the U.S. in international
  process
• High-level mission, summits, and high-level
  consultations.
• Essential elements of the Kyoto architecture,
  such as legally binding targets and timetable,
  and differentiated commitments for developing
  countries.

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Bonn agreement (2001)

• Parties compromised on contentious issues
• - No ceilings on the use of the Kyoto
  mechanisms.
• - Commitment period reserve should be
  maintained.
• - National caps on credits from forest
  management.
• - Afforestation and reforestation are the only
  eligible projects under the CDM.
• Parties agreed to create new funds to implement
  the Convention and the Protocol.
• Final political-level negotiation addressed the
  issue of compliance. Agreement include
• - Restoration of non-compliance at a rate of
  1.3.

13
Marrakech Accords (2001)

• Parties agreed on most of the big issues.
• Compliance regime
• Reconfirm to defer decision on the legal nature
  of the consequences of non-compliance.
• Agree on the procedure for the reinstatement of
  Partys eligibility to use the Kyoto mechanisms.
• Partys eligibility to use the Kyoto mechanisms
• Not depend on its acceptance of the agreement
  entailing legally binding consequences.
• Russias cap on credits from forest management.

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Bonn Agreement and Marrakech Accords
achievements and challenges ahead

• Achievements
• Agreed package (Kyoto-lite) made the Protocol
  ratifiable for many Parties.
• EU, Japan and many other Parties ratified the
  Protocol, and stepped up policies and measures to
  implement it.
• Challenges ahead
• U.S. continue to stay out, and developing
  countries to reject any talks on future
  commitments.

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Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol

• The Protocol entered into force on February 16,
  2005.
• COP/MOP1 (Montreal, 2005)
• Formally adopted the Marrakech Accords, setting
  Protocol implementation in motion.
• Took action to improve the implementation of the
  Protocol including
• Measures to reform the CDM
• Five-year programme of work on adaptation

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Climate policies in Japan to implement the Kyoto
Protocol

• The Statutory National Plan for Achieving the
  Kyoto Target (approved by the Cabinet on 28
  April)
• Significant gap remains between GHG emissions and
  the Kyoto target.
• A mix of additional policies and measures was
  introduced.

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Targets of the National Plan
One percent of the base year emissions is
equivalent to 12.4 million ton-CO2
()
(2004) 8.0
Projected level by existing measures
6.0 over the base year
6.5 reduction by additional domestic measures
Actual emissions
Removals by sinks (3.9)
?0.5 Level
14 gap between the target and current emission
level
???
Utilization of the Kyoto Mechanisms (1.6)
(??t-CO2)
?6 Target
Total ?12
1990
2000
2010
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Japans Climate Program to Implement the Kyoto
Protocol (2)

• Existing measures include
• Mandatory energy efficiency standards for
  automobiles and home appliances.
• Voluntary action plans by industries.
• Additional policies and measures include
• Expanded coverage of voluntary action plans.
• Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Accounting and Reporting
  scheme.
• Economic/ market-based instruments need further
  elaboration.

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Climate Policies in the EU

• Carbon/energy tax.
• Promotion of renewable energy and combined heat
  and power (CHP).
• Voluntary agreements with industries.
• EU-ETS (Emissions trading scheme)
• 25 Member States allocated allowances to a total
  of 11.5 thousand energy-intensive installations.
• National Allocation Plans for 2008-2012 are under
  consideration by Member States and the European
  Commission.

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Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

• Purpose (Kyoto Protocol)
• To assist non-Annex I Parties in achieving
  sustainable development.
• To assist Annex I Parties in achieving compliance
  with the targets.
• CDM projects/ emission reduction credits
• Registered projects gt 300, expected credits by
  2012 gt 580 million tCO2.
• Projects in pipeline gt 1,000, expected credits by
  2012 gt 1.2 billion tCO2.

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International climate regime beyond 2012

• Since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol,
  a new momentum has been building up towards
  exploring future actions.
• Major points to be explored include
• Scale and time-frame of deeper reductions in
  global greenhouse gas emissions.
• Technology innovation and market-based approach
  that make the reductions possible and
  economically attractive.
• Equitable commitments and incentives that
  encourage broadest possible participation.

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International climate regime beyond 2012 (2)

• Major points to be explored (continued)
• Integration of climate policies into sustainable
  development policies in developing countries.
• Co-benefits/ win-win opportunities.
• Improvements in the operation of existing
  mechanisms, for instance, CDM.
• Best mix of mitigation and adaptation policies.
• Building capacities of, and strengthening
  information base in developing countries.

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International climate regime beyond 2012 (3)

• 3 parallel processes agreed at Montreal
• Ad-hoc Working Group to consider further
  commitments by Annex I Parties beyond 2012.
• COP/MOP to conduct review of the Protocol.
• A dialogue on long-term cooperative action for
  all UNFCCC Parties to address issues including
• Advancing development goals sustainably.
• Addressing action on adaptation.
• Realizing the full potential of technology.
• Realizing the full potential of market-based
  opportunities.

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Conclusion

• The Kyoto Protocol
• Significant first step in addressing climate
  change.
• Has entered into force after time-consuming and
  difficult negotiations.
• Many countries stepped up policies and measures
  to implement the Protocol, although gaps still
  remain and improvements should be pursued.
• Climate regime beyond 2012
• Necessary for deeper reductions in global
  emissions.
• Innovative approaches building on current
  practices should be pursued to achieve broadest
  possible participation.

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Thank you !

• Hironori Hamanaka
• hamanaka_at_sfc.keio.ac.jp