Harmful Algal Bloom Pilot Project The Beginnings of a Proposal

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Harmful Algal Bloom Pilot Project The
Beginnings of a Proposal

• IOOS Regional Coordination Workshop
• November 7 9, 2006

Karenia brevis
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Harmful Algal Blooms
Toxins
Hypoxia

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Why the Gulf of Mexico ? Why K. brevis ?

• Of 30 toxic species, K.b. has by far the
  greatest impact on health well being
• Neurotoxic shellfish poisoning (NSP)
• Respiratory illness
• gt 5,000 /liter (0.05 µg /liter)
• K.b. monitored routinely since 1950
• Pigmented, surface signature
• Patches
• Regional (multi state) problem
• Occur most frequently late summer fall
• Hot spots
• Blooms of Trichodesmium spp. often precede K.b.
  blooms

Karenia brevis
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Workshop Reports Used to Prepare this Proposal

• Harmful Algal Blooms Observing System (HABSOS)
  Workshop Report, 2000 (http//www.hpl.umces.edu/pr
  ojects/HABSOS.pdf)
• Action Plan for Harmful Algal Blooms and the Gulf
  of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System, 2004
  (http//www.gulfbase.org/event/view.php?eidhabsos
  gcoos)
• Harmful Algal Research and Response National
  Environmental Strategy 2005-2015, A National Plan
  for Algal Toxins and Harmful Algal Blooms
  (http//www.esa.org/HARRNESS/)
• 2005 IGOS Coastal Theme Report (http//ioc.unesco.
  org/igospartners/)

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Gulf Action Plan HARRNESS Recommend Actions
that are Particularly Relevant to an IOOS Pilot
Project on HABs
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Purpose of this Report

• Identify user groups specify their data
  information requirements
• Suggest pilot project objectives
• Specify observing system requirements to be met
  through the combined use of in situ measurements
  remote sensing
• Suggest RD priorities for improving operational
  capabilities
• Initiate a process that will lead to a pilot
  project
• Networks stakeholders from public private
  sectors to
• Implement an integrated, Gulfwide HAB monitoring
  forecasting system as an integral component of
  coastal IOOS
• Demonstrate value added by expanding the use of
  current observations made in support of other
  applications

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User Groups Products Well Documentedin 2000
2004 Workshops

• Federal State Agencies
• Public health
• Resource management
• Water quality
• Industries
• Tourist
• Shellfish
• At Risk Public
• Educators
• NGOs

• Weekly Nowcasts
• where when blooms are likely to be initiated
• based on environmental conditions
• Alert/Nowcasts
• location areal extent of new bloom
• followed by daily nowcasts of location extent
• Daily, 3day Forecasts
• bloom trajectories once a bloom has been confirmed

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Key Stakeholder OrganizationsThat Represent
These Groups

• Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing Regional
  Association (http//www-ocean.tamu.edu/GCOOS/RA)
• SE Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association
  (http//www.secoora.org/)
• Gulf of Mexico Alliance (http//www.dep.state.fl.u
  s/gulf/default.htm)

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Suggested Pilot Project ObjectivesCollaborate
w/ key stakeholders to

• Expand/improve the efficiency of networks of
  responsible State agencies for
• data information exchange
• coordinated development of programs that monitor
  ecosystem conditions, shellfish, fish,
  waterborne pathogens Gulfwide
• Expand volunteer networks of beach keepers
• Using common standards protocols for sampling
  reporting
• Modeled after the River Keeper program
• Predict the onset of K. brevis blooms their
  movement in shelf waters with known uncertainty
• Using of ensemble modeling techniques.
• Improve the cost-effectiveness of sampling
  regimes and the skill of model forecasts
• OSSEs OSEs
• Test beds

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Minimum Set of Observations Needed

• Forcings
• Sea surface winds
• Riverine inputs
• Freshwater
• Sediments
• Nutrients
• Atmospheric inputs
• Freshwater
• Nitrogen
• Iron
• Offshore Boundary Conditions

• Ecosystem Condition
• Surface fields
• Waves
• Currents
• Temperature
• Chlorophylla
• Vertical profiles
• Temperature Salinity
• Inorganic nutrients
• Colored DOM
• Chlorophylla
• K. brevis cell density

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Observing System RequirementsModified for the
IGOS Coastal Theme Report
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2 Tiered Approach

• Tier 1 Continuous, Sustained Observations
  Analyses
• Spacebased remote sensing
• Chlorophyll-a, pigment ratios, suspended
  sediments colored dissolved organic matter
  (SeaWiFS, MODIS, OCM, OSMI, MERIS)
• Sea surface temperature (AVHRR)
• Surface waves and slicks (scatterometry, SAR, HF
  radar)
• Currents (altimetry, HF radar)
• Sentinel stations transects K. brevis Hot
  Spots
• In situ measurements of key environmental
  variables
• K. brevis abundance

• Tier 2 Adaptive Sampling
• Triggered by Tier 1 observations analyses
• Focus on the domain where a bloom is likely to
  occur or is occurring
• Increase timespace resolution of Tier 1
  observations
• Add new measurements as needed, e.g., K. brevis
  toxicity

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Potential Adaptive Sampling Schemes
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Existing Building Blocks

• NOAA HAB Monitoring Forecasting System HAB
  Bulletin
• SpaceBased Remote Sensing
• NASA
• NOAA
• GCOOS SEACOOS
• HF Radar
• BreveBuster
• NDBC Data Buoys, TYCOON, TABS, COMPS
• SEAKEYS, NERRS
• PORTS
• Houston/Galveston Bay
• Tampa Bay

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Indicators of Research PrioritiesA Sampling of
Ongoing RD and Responsible PIs

• Remote Sensing (Bissett, Stumpf, Villareal)
• Identification monitoring nearshore HABs on the
  W. FL Shelf
• Detecting K. brevis blooms in the western Gulf of
  Mexico
• Validating remote detection of K. brevis
• In Situ Sensing Field Measurements (Campbell,
  Heil, Kirkpatrick, Lohrenz, Naar, Pierce, Van
  Dolah)
• Eastern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Program
• Distributed detection adaptive 3D mapping of
  HABs incorporating AUVs
• Optical detection assesments of K. brevis
• Detection, toxicity characterization of
  brevetoxin brevetoxin metabolites
• Immunoassay for K. brevis monitoring
• Structure, toxicity persistence of brevetoxins
  responsible for NSP
• Cellular mechanisms mediating bloom longevity in
  K. brevis
• Identification of molecular regulators of K.
  brevis growth toxicity
• Modeling Analysis (Bissett, Gross, Kamykowski,
  Stumpf)
• Developing methods to use satellite imagery and
  in situ measurements for monitoring forecasting
  HABs
• Hyperspectral modeling of HABs on the W. FL Shelf
• Laboratory numerical modeling studies of K.
  brevis behavior to aid in predicting blooms

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Much More Needs Doing

• Assess current capabilities costs of sustaining
  them
• Specify requirements for DMAC modeling
• Perform a gap analysis of requirements vs
  capabilities
• Provide a phased plan for filling gaps with cost
  estimates
• Address the issue of effectively efficiently
  incorporating advances in ST into the
  operational system
• Implement mechanisms for engaging key
  stakeholders
• Address training, education public outreach
  needs

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Hopefully This is a Reasonable Beginning