Global Environmental Changes: Technology and the Future of Planet Earth

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Global Environmental Changes Technology and the
Future of Planet Earth

• Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
• Professor of Atmospheric Science
• Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
• Iowa State University
• Ames, Iowa 50011
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu

Globalization Seminar, Mechanical Engineering
484X, 18 January 2006
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Outline

• Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
• Radiative forcing
• Simulations of global climate and future climate
  change
  
• Dangerous anthropogenic inter-
  ference with the climate system?
  
• Climate surprises
• Summary

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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2006
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2040
2006
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual (fossil intensive) 2100
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Nobody believes that the US economy can still be
petroleum based in 2050, yet there is no national
plan Mark Kushner, Dean Iowa State University
College of Engineering Presidents Council Meeti
ng 13 January 2006
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El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Normalized Change
Change in Downwelling Longwave Radiation vs.
Change in Surface Temperature
Longwave Down Surface (2m) Temperature
From GEWEX News, 14, 1 (November 2004)
http//gewx.org/gewex_nwsltr.html
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Associated Climate Changes

• Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
• Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes
  decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere
  
• Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased
  in extent by 10-15
  
• Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar,
  mountainous regions
  
• Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N.
  Hemisphere
  
• Retreat of continental glaciers on all
  continents
  
• Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
• Snow cover decreased by 10
• Earlier flowering dates
• Coral reef bleaching

Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice
concentration in 1979 at left and in
2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s
indicate a 3 decrease per decade in arctic sea
ice extent.
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Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap
has shrunk more than 20 percent.
(Illustration from NASA) (http//www.nrdc.org/glo
balWarming/qthinice.asp)
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Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
V
V

• V

Emanual, Kerry, 2005 Increasing destructiveness
of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.
Nature, 436, 686-688.
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Tropical Weather
Weather Underground http//www.wunderground.com/
tropical/
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http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ImageKatrina_vs_sea_
surface_height.JPG
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
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The planet is committed to a warming over the nex
t
50 years regardless of political decisions
Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
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The planet is committed to a warming over the nex
t
50 years regardless of political decisions
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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40 Probability
5 Probability
Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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Climate Change Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic Growth
Slower Economic Growth
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Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a warmin
g Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
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Kennedy Space Center
Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying
areas
Projected sea-level rise In 21st century 0.5 t
o 1.0 m
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (3 ft
) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a warmin
g Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers

• An increasing body of observations gives a
  collective picture of a warming world and other
  changes in the climate system
  
• Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to
  human activities continue to alter the
  atmosphere in ways that are
  expected to affect the climate

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• There is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the last 50
  years is attributable to human
  activities
• Anthropogenic climate change will persist for
  many centuries
  

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For the Midwest

• Warming will be greater for winter than summer
• Warming will be greater at night than during the
  day
  
• A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
  the probability of a heat wave
  
• Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
  now than in 1950)
  
• More precipitation
• Likely more soil moisture in summer
• More rain will come in intense rainfall events
• Higher stream flow, more flooding

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Climate Surprises

• Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation
  (Greenland melt water)
  
• Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

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Kennedy Space Center
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (3 ft
) rise in sea
level
Miami
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What Constitutes Dangerous Anthropogenic
Interference with the Climate System?

• James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard
• Institute for Space Studies
• Radiative forcing limit 1 Watt/ m2
• 1 oC additional rise in global mean
• temperature

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El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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North America Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric
Research
Principal Investigator

• Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle,
  Iowa State University
  
• Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK
• Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada
• Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National
  Laboratories, USA
  
• Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP,
  Italy
  
• Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid
  Dynamics Laboratory, USA
  
• René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
• Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National
  Laboratories, USA
  
• Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom
  Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research,
  USA
  
• Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of
  Oceanography, USA
  
• Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
• Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at
  Santa Cruz, USA

http//www.narccap.ucar.edu/
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Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
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Climate Model Resolution
global
regional (land)
regional (water)
Only every second RCM grid point is shown in e
ach
direction
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Application of Climate Change Scenarios

• Crop pathogens
• Habitat/climate for invasive species
• Soil or aquatic ecosystems
• Hardiness zones for trees
• Freshwater availability
• Lake-level changes
• Recreation changes

• Space-heating/power demands
• Crop yields
• Soil carbon levels
• Soil erosion
• Bird migration patterns
• Dairy cow milk production
• Heat stress in beef cattle
• Snowpack/reservoir performance

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Summary

• Climate change is real and we need to be doing
  something about it to prevent dangerous
  anthropogenic interference with the climate
  system
• Mitigation will have no effect for 50 years, so
  we need to develop adaptation strategies for the
  short term
  
• The longer we wait, the fewer our options
• Regional patterns of warming will be complicated
• Climate surprises cant be discounted
• We need dialog between scientists
  and the private sector to develop
  both adaptation and mitigation
  strategies

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For More Information

• For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything
  you have seen in this presentation, see my online
  Global Change course
  
• http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
• Contact me directly
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu