Scenarios, Systems Innovation and the Transition to a Sustainable Hydrogen Economy

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Scenarios, Systems Innovation and the Transition
to a Sustainable Hydrogen Economy
Malcolm Eames William McDowall ESRC Seminar
Governing socio-technical transitions
implications for hydrogen economies 2nd June
2006, SURF Centre, Manchester
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Project Overview
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Aims objectives of transition scenarios

• Hydrogen requires long-term systems innovation
  backcasting perspective allows us to explore how
  this might occur
• Aim to develop theoretically informed scenarios
  that explore different transition dynamics
  pathways to a hydrogen economy

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The Multi-Level Perspective

• MLP useful historical analysis/ heuristic
  structure for understanding transitions
• Understanding how developments at different
  levels interact
• But criticised for limited utility with respect
  to transition management (historical transitions
  not purposively driven or envisaged) yet much
  discussion of hydrogen foresees a managed
  transition.

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Transition Contexts and Governance Paradigms

• Attempts to understand different types of
  transition and their dynamics
• Geels Schot five-fold transitions taxonomy
  difficult to apply to normative transitions.
• SPRU taxonomy more emphasis on visions, power
  governance, but practical difficulties in
  defining what is inside or outside the regime
• IVM Governance paradigms help enrich thinking
  about policy and governance styles

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Dimensions of transition dynamics

• High-low coordination of selection pressures and
  adaptive capacity
• (Existence power of normative vision)
• Locus of resources responding to pressures for
  change internal or external to the regime
• (Innovation driven by existing vs. new actors and
  institutions)

Adapted from Berkhout et al 2004
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Framework for UKSHEC Transition Scenarios
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Structure of the UKSHEC transition scenarios

• End Visions (original six condensed to four)
• Storyline summary
• Key indicators
• Multi-Level Perspective description
• Landscape
• Niches, technologies early markets
• Market growth and systems change
• Map/visual representation

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Corporate Race ? Ubiquitous Hydrogen
Structural Shift ? Electricity Store
Government Mission ? Centralised H2 for Transport
Disruptive Innovation ? Synthetic Liquid Fuel
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Structural Shift
Landscape
Electricity Store
Energy security concerns
Climate concerns
Fuel Cell prices fall, vehicles become viable
Regimes systems
Nuclear phase out
Network of stationary electrolysis units
overcomes infrastructure problems
Restructuring of UK energy sector
New regulatory environment for energy
Hydrogen systems used to balance renewables
Very rapid growth in renewables, CHP, and energy
service contracts
PEM fuel cells enter markets for backup premium
power
Niches
Surge in development of microgeneration
Community and local energy schemes
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Corporate Race
Landscape
International Agreements on climate change fail
Constrained natural gas supplies
Ubiquitous Hydrogen
Big business starts to see climate change and oil
depletion as long term threats
Hydrogen replaces natural gas in grids
Hydrogen increasingly distributed through natural
gas grid
Regimes systems
Nuclear phase out
Carbon capture and storage develops
Advances in gas separation technologies
Auto and oil firms in strategic race to develop
hydrogen
Large energy firms develop infrastructure
Strong growth in renewables, biomass and waste
gasification
Niches
Fuel Cell prices fall, vehicles become viable
RD and commercialisation programmes in auto
sector
Regional governments compete to attract big
players for deployment projects
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Government Mission
Landscape
Strong government, step back from liberalisation
Strong climate concerns
Energy security concerns
National Industry Champions
Strong global renewables growth
Regimes systems
Centralised Hydrogen for Transport
Carbon capture technologies advance
Commitment to H2 in transport
Centralised production most cost effective
Strong policies for consumer uptake
Public acceptance of nuclear expansion
Fuel Cell Vehicles
Bivalent fuelled internal combustion
Niches
Public procurement of fleet vehicles
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Disruptive Innovation an alternative scenario
Landscape
Business as usual for consumers
Climate concerns
Competitiveness Agenda and focus on innovation
Limited Natural Gas
Carbon capture technologies advance
Synthetic Liquid Fuels
Regimes systems
Renewable hydrogen used in fuel synthesis
Synthetic fuels in mainstream transport
Insufficient political drive for hydrogen in
transport
Strong global renewables growth
Synthetic fuels widespread
Biofuels agenda pushes fuel synthesis technology
DMFC scooters
Niches
Portables, DMFC, APUs
Solid storage fails
H2FCV fails to take off
Consumer mobile power demands
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Questions?Comments?