El Nino Forecast and Hydrologic Monitoring Data

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El Nino Forecast and Hydrologic Monitoring Data

• By
• Mike Schaffner
• National Weather Service Tucson, AZ

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What does the National Weather Service do with
Hydrologic Data?

• The NWS has the same responsibility to
  issue surface water forecasts as
  atmospheric forecasts
• Monitor Streams for any Significant Rises
• Issue Flash Flood Watches and Warnings
• Issue Flood Watches and Warnings.
• Issue Hydrologic (i.e. drought) Outlooks

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A Recent Example of Water Monitoring

• August 5, 2002 Storm

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Arcadia Wash
Alamo Wash
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Classic Urban Flash Flood Signature
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El Nino Forecast?
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El Nino Observations

• Currently in a Moderate El Nino
• El Nino Conditions Expected to Continue Through
  Early 2003
• Basin-wide Mature El Nino Conditions are Expected
  During December 2002-February 2003

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December through February ENSO Temperature and
Precipitation Correlations
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SoWhat is the Climate Prediction Center Forecast
for this Winter?
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Precipitation
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Forecast Summary

• Wetter than Normal Winter Precipitation.
• Might be a Busy Winter for all of us (and our
  stream gages!).
• Near Normal Winter Temperatures.