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FAO

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IGP Eastern Sub-Region Characterisation and GECAFS Questions ... USA: University of Illinois. CGIAR: International Food Policy Research Institute ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: FAO


1
FAO
CGIAR
WMO
2
GECAFS Vision
A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to
environmental stress.
3
Fundamental Questions
  • How will Global Environmental Change affect the
    vulnerability of food systems in different
    regions?
  • How might food systems be adapted to cope with
    GEC so as to enhance food security?
  • What would be the consequences of adaptation
    options for environmental and socioeconomic
    conditions?

4
Key Terms
  • Global Environmental Change
  • changes in the biogeophysical environment
  • Food Systems
  • an interconnected set of processes and activities
  • Food Security
  • a state or condition underpinned by food systems

5
Global Environmental Change Changes in the
biogeophysical environment caused or strongly
influenced by human activities
For example changes in
Land cover soils Atmospheric composition
Climate variability means Water availability
quality
Nitrogen availability cycling Biodiversity Sea
currents salinity Sea level
6
Global Environmental Change
  • Examples of human activities leading to GEC

Agricultural intensification Freshwater
extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste
production
Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption
Urbanisation Land reclamation
7
Key Terms
  • Global Environmental Change
  • changes in the biogeophysical environment
  • Food Systems
  • an interconnected set of processes and activities

8
A Food System
  • is a set of dynamic interactions between and
    within the human and biogeophysical environments
    which result in the production, processing,
    distribution, preparation and consumption of
    food.
  • (definition based on FAO viewpoint)
  • should involve interactions designed to provide
    food security.
  • is based on three major components each
    comprising three key elements influenced by many
    determinants.

9
Components of Food Systems Key Elements
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
  • Affordability
  • Allocation
  • Preference
  • Nutritional Value
  • Social Value
  • Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY
  • Production
  • Distribution
  • Exchange

10
Example Determinants of Food Systems
11
Food Systems
  • operate through connections between related
    determinants operating in one or more major
    components.
  • fail to deliver food security when determinants,
    and/or the links between them, are disrupted by
    GEC or other stresses.
  • can be adapted to reduce their vulnerability to
    GEC by
  • identifying which related determinants are
    particularly sensitive to GEC
  • enhancing effective determinants
  • restoring disrupted determinants

12
Determinants perspective helps analyse external
stressors on Food Systems
Currency Fluctuations
Economic Recession
Water Pollution
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
Floods, Droughts
Political Unrest
FOOD AVAILABILITY
HIV-AIDS
War
Climate Change
Change in Trading Agreements
13
Food Systems Concepts questions defined
  • What parameters describe food systems so as to
    facilitate GECAFS research?
  • Within given food systems, which parameters are
    most sensitive to GEC?
  • Who are the agents within each major food system,
    what are their roles, and how do they interact?

14
Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC questions
defined
  • Which aspects of food systems (availability,
    accessibility, utilisation) are presently most
    vulnerable to environmental stress and which
    stresses are most threatening?
  • How might these vulnerabilities change in the
    future and to what extent might GEC either
    heighten or mitigate these vulnerabilities?
  • Which strategies, involving both the private and
    public sectors, will most likely reduce food
    system vulnerabilities and thereby increase food
    security?

15
Key Terms
  • Global Environmental Change
  • changes in the biogeophysical environment
  • Food Systems
  • an interconnected set of processes and activities
  • Food Security
  • a state or condition underpinned by food systems

16
Food Security
  • is underpinned by food systems
  • exists when all people, at all times, have
    physical and economic access to sufficient, safe,
    and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs
    and food preferences for an active and healthy
    life.
  • (definition from the World Food Summit)
  • emphasizes access for individuals, households,
    communities to food.
  • is researched via food systems approach

17
GECAFS Goal
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts
of GEC on food systems and to assess the
environmental and socioeconomic consequences of
adaptive responses aimed at improving food
security.
18
Achieving the Goal
  • Improve understanding of the interactions between
    food systems and key socioeconomic and
    biogeophysical components of the Earth System.
  • Deliver the new science necessary to assist
    policy formulation for improving food security in
    the face of GEC.
  • These are to be undertaken simultaneously

19
Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
Research
Conditions Scenarios
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Decision Support
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation
20
Research Approaches
  • 1. Conceptual Methodological Research
  • Food Systems Concepts
  • Vulnerability Concepts
  • Scenario Construction
  • Decision Support Systems
  • 2. Food Systems Research in
  • Indo-Gangetic Plain
  • Caribbean
  • Southern Africa

21
Scenario Development questions defined
  • What are the plausible future changes in
    environmental and socioeconomic conditions that
    will affect food systems?
  • What elements of global scenarios are most
    important for regional-level food system
    analyses?
  • What what are the best approaches for linking
    global scenarios to regional scale so as to
    capture regional-level factors relevant to food
    systems?

22
Research Relevance Partnerships
Science Agendas
Development Agendas
Policy Makers
Resource Managers
Science
Socio- economic
Natural
23
Decision Support Systems questions defined
  • What is the best way to determine the information
    needs of advisors to policymakers, resource
    managers and other stakeholders regarding GEC and
    food issues?
  • How can DSS best be developed to help analyse the
    socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of
    adaptation options?
  • What is the best methodological approach to DSS
    development to optimise communication with
    stakeholders?

24
Update on GECAFS IGP planning
25
IGP General Characteristics
  • Western Region (1, 2 3)
  • high productivity food surplus
  • high investment in infrastructure
  • major use of fertilisers and ground-water for
    irrigation
  • in-migration of labour
  • Eastern Region (4 5)
  • low productivity food deficit
  • poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer
    and water
  • high risk of flooding
  • out-migration of labour

26
Context
  • ? The IGP food system is both threatened by GEC
    and contributes to further GEC forcing.
  • In the face of increased climate variability,
    policy requirements are to develop strategies
    that
  • sustain/boost agricultural production while
    limiting further environmental degradation
  • promote food systems which improve socioeconomic
    conditions for the more vulnerable
  • encourage reduced intra-regional labour migration
  • ? Research needs to recognise the marked
    socioeconomic and biophysical differences across
    the region.

27
  • IGP Western Sub-Region Characterisation and
    GECAFS Questions
  • high productivity food surplus region
  • high investment in infrastructure
  • major use of fertilisers and ground-water for
    irrigation
  • in-migration of labour

What will be the consequences of changed water
management on rural livelihoods, intra-regional
trade, GHG emissions and water tables?
Conditions Scenarios
How will climate variability affect change in
water demand in IGP food systems?
Adapted Food Systems
Current Food Systems
How can changes in water management (e.g. though
policy instruments and/or agronomic aspects)
reduce vulnerability of rice-wheat productivity
to climate variability?
28
  • IGP Eastern Sub-Region Characterisation and
    GECAFS Questions
  • low productivity food deficit region
  • poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer
    and water
  • high risk of flooding
  • out-migration of labour

Conditions Scenarios
How would diversification effect rural incomes,
labour migration, water quality and regional
biodiversity?
How will climate variability affect vulnerability
of resource-poor farmers to flooding?
Adapted Food Systems
Current Food Systems
What are the market opportunities, social
constraints and technical options for
diversifying crops (e.g. aquaculture) to make
more effective use of flood and groundwater?
29
Specific Objectives
  • Improved assessment of the spatial and temporal
    vulnerability of food systems across the IGP.
  • Refined decision support systems to address
    stakeholder needs relating to potential policy
    and technical interventions.
  • Improved water governance from enhanced capacity
    of stakeholders to use different types of
    decision support systems.

30
GECAFS IGP Research Products Stage I
  • Standard characterisation and classification of
    food systems and their water requirements five
    case study sites.
  • Refined and improved Water Poverty Index
    methodology.
  • Initial assessments of vulnerability of the food
    systems in relation to water availability for the
    case study sites and the region.
  • Will build on regional research on
  • food production (RWC)
  • diversification (IFAD WB projects)
  • policy reform in irrigation sector (IMWI)

31
GECAFS IGP Research Products Stage II
  • Decision Support Systems for analysing
    socioeconomic and environmental consequences of
    alternative policies and water management
    technologies.
  • Analysis of socioeconomic and environmental
    tradeoffs of alternative water policy and
    technical options at national and regional
    levels.

Capacity building of regional stakeholders and
scientists through collaborative analysis in both
stages.
32
Participating Institutions
Bangladesh Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad India Ind
ian Council of Agricultural Research Nepal Nepal
Water Conservation Foundation Pakistan Global
Change Impact Studies Centre Pakistan
Agricultural Research Council UK NERC Centre
for Ecology Hydrology USA University of
Illinois CGIAR International Food Policy
Research Institute GECAFS International Project
Coordination
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