1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page

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1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page

• Title Space Weather Algorithm Readiness for
  GOES-R
• Project Type Product Development Proposal and
  Product Improvement Proposal
• Status Renewal (ongoing effort funded by R3
  starting in FY09)
• Duration 3 years (starting FY08)
• Level of Effort Support Source
• Lead
• Dr. Steven Hill SWPC 8 NOAA/SWPC Base
• Other Participants
• Dr. Rodney Viereck SWPC 4 NOAA/SWPC Base
• Dr. Howard Singer SWPC 4 NOAA/SWPC Base
• Dr. Janet Green SWPC 4 NOAA/SWPC Base
• Dr. Christopher Balch SWPC 2 NOAA/SWPC Base
• Mary Shouldis CIRES 75 GOES AWG/R3
• Magnetometer Postdoc CIRES 50 GOES AWG/R3
• Dr. Juan Rodriguez CIRES 50 GOES AWG/R3
• Dr. Joshua Rigler CIRES 50 GOES AWG/R3
• Leslie Mayer CIRES 25 GOES AWG/R3
• Dan Wilkinson NGDC 2 NOAA/NGDC Base

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2. Project Summary

• Algorithm Readiness Background
• Diverse observations support forecasters and
  users
• GOES-R Requirements similar to GOES NOP, but
  improved focus on primary customer needs
• Develop pre-operational code for algorithms
• Develop delivery packages for GFI to ground
  system contractor (on-hold)
• SWx Algorithm Working Group (Algorithm
  Readiness) effort merged with Risk Reduction
  effort in FY09
• Currently no plan or funding to operationally
  implement any Level-2 SWx algorithms
• FY12 POP Alternative submitted to fund
  implementation
• Continue Algorithm Readiness pending operational
  implementation plan

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2. Project Summary Product Overview

• 31 Level 2 Space Weather Products in three
  product sets
• 22 are operational legacy, 9 are new or have
  experimental heritage

Baseline
Option 1
Option 2
Product Set 2
Product Set 1
Product Set 3/4
XRS.05 Calculate the ratio of the short over
long channels XRS.06 Event Detection with high
resolution data XRS.07 Event Detection with
one-minute data EUVS.03D Daily averages of broad
spectral bands EUVS.04 Event Detection SEISS.19
Density temperature moments level of
spacecraft charging MAG.10 Magnetopause crossing
detection SUVI.12 Coronal Hole Images SUVI.13
Bright Region Data SUVI.14 Flare Location (XFL)
reports
XRS.04 One-minute averages for both long and
short channels EUVS.03 One-minute and daily
averages of broad spectral bands SEISS.16
One-minute averages - all MPS channels SEISS.17
Five-minute averages - all MPS and SGPS
channels SEISS.18 Convert differential proton
flux values to integral flux values MAG.07 MAG
data in alternate geophysical coordinate
systems MAG.08 One-minute averages MAG.09
Comparison to quiet fields SUVI.07 Composite
(wide dynamic range) images SUVI.09 Fixed
difference images SUVI.10 Running difference
images
XRS.09 Daily Background XRS.10 Flare
Location EUVS.05 Multi-wavelength proxy EUVS.06
EUV spectrum SEISS.20 Event detection based on
flux values MAG.12 Sudden Impulse (SI)
detection SUVI.15 Coronal Hole
Boundaries SUVI.16 Plasma Temperature Emission
Measure SUVI.17 EUV Narrow Band
Irradiance SUVI.18 Extended corona images
Legacy
11 Product Set 1 Products based on 7 Algorithms
(1 averaging algorithm for 5 products
New
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2. Project Summary Solar Imaging

• SUVI Algorithm Readiness
• Provides key 1 to 3-day warning of geomagnetic
  storms and enhances of solar radiation storm
  forecasts by providing flare locations in lt 2
  minutes.
• Primary customers include all SWx data users.
• Example customer impacts include loss of Japans
  ADEOS-2 spacecraft at a cost of 640M, which
  carried NASAs Seawinds instrument at a cost of
  154M after a severe geomagnetic storm. Power
  blackout of 50000 customers in Sweden in 2003.

SUVI Product Precedence Tree
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2. Project Summary EUV Irradiance

• EUVS Algorithm Readiness
• Measure the solar EUV energy input to the upper
  atmosphere and improve the ability to predict
  upper atmospheric and ionospheric conditions.
• Primary customers include satellite operators
  (LEO), HF communications and GPS operators.
• EUVS data and products are used to forecast
  satellite orbital lifetimes in LEO and to plan
  for satellite and other spacecraft maintenance
  and replacement.

EUVS Product Precedence Tree
EUVS
EUVS 1-Minute Averages1
Multi-Wavelength Proxy1
EUV Daily Averages1
EUV Event Detection2
EUV Spectrum2
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2. Project Summary X-ray Irradiance

• XRS Algorithm Readiness
• XRS data drives Radio Blackout portion of NOAAs
  Space Weather Scales that is crucial to SWPC
  customers.
• Major flares outshine the Sun in X-rays by 10,000
  times in a few minutes.
• Every second counts to customers like airlines
  who need to direct aircraft to new radio
  frequencies or links before static overwhelms
  signals.
• Radio blackouts result from rapid ionization of
  the D-region of the ionosphere causing
  increasingly higher HF frequencies to be
  absorbed.
• Atmospheric ionization from a solar flare is
  almost instantaneous.
• Related changes to the ionosphere degrade the
  accuracy of GPS systems impacting customers with
  operations such as precision deep sea drilling.

XRS Product Precedence Tree
XRS
XRS High Cadence Data1
XRS 1-min Averages1
XRS Channel Ratio1
XRS High-Res. Event Detection1
Daily Background1
Flare Location2
XRS 1-min Event Detection1
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2. Project Summary Energetic Particles

• SEISS (Radiation) Algorithm Readiness
• SEISS data drives Solar Radiation Storm portion
  of NOAAs Space Weather Scales that is crucial to
  SWPC customers.
• Products serve airline and satellite industries
  and manned space flight ops.
• Electron radiation can cause surface and deep
  charging in spacecraft leading to damaging
  discharges.
• Proton radiation causes single event upsets and
  noise on detectors.
• Heavy ion radiation is a health risk to
  astronauts and aviators flying at high altitudes
  or latitudes.
• Particle precipitation along Earths magnetic
  field lines at the poles causes D-region
  ionization leading to radio blackouts for polar
  airline flights.

SEISS Product Precedence Tree
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2. Project Summary Magnetic Field Environment

• Magnetometer Algorithm Readiness
• Only measure of geomagnetic storm impact at
  geosynchronous orbit.
• Key for interpreting solar radiation storm
  measurements by SEISS.
• Primary operational customers are satellite
  operators, who, for example had to implement
  manual attitude control for a number of TV and
  Pay Radio satellites due to magnetopause
  crossings during October 2003 storms.
• Key for validating predictive Sun-to-Earth
  numerical models

MAG
MAG Product Precedence Tree
Geomagnetic Field
Geomagnetic Field in Alternate Coordinate Systems1
Quiet Field Comparison1
MAG1-min Averages1
Sudden Impulse Detection2
Magnetopause Crossing Detection2
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3. Motivation/Justification

• High Level Mission Goals Supported
• NOAA Weather and Water, Commerce and
  Transportation
• DOD Satellite collision avoidance, Space
  situational awareness
• NASA Satellite collision avoidance, Astronaut
  safety
• General Public Requirements GPS and satellite
  navigation, HF communications, Airline Safety
• Forecast Needs Supported
• Legacy Products (22)
• Continue producing heritage products in GOES-R
  era
• Assure readiness for operational implementation,
  whatever form that takes
• Enhanced accuracy and consistency of existing
  products
• Calibrating and validating existing GOES data and
  new data from GOES-R
• New Products (9)
• Reduced forecaster workload
• Leveraging of GOES-R, POES/NPOESS and current
  GOES capabilities to satisfy unmet customer needs
• Leveraging GOES-R Risk Reduction work

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4. Methodology

• Development Strategy
• Evaluate Current Capabilities and Algorithms
• Gather/Create Proxy Data to Simulate GOES-R Data
• Develop Algorithms using Proxy Data as Guidance
• Iteratively Incorporate Improvements into
  Algorithms
• Demonstrate Algorithm Performance Against
  Baselines
• Management
• Use project AWG management methodology
• Detailed project plan
• Deliver pre-operational code
• Deliver full documentation
• Design reviews and test plans
• Earned Value Management
• Phased delivery

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4. Methodology (Continued)

• Testing and Validation
• Proxy Data
• GOES 8-14 for all algorithms as available and
  appropriate
• EXIS POES SBUV, NASA TIMED SEE and SDO EVE,and
  Solar Models
• SEISS Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) Calculated
  Densities Temps
• Magnetic field model data for MAG
• GOES 12 13 SXI, SOHO EIT and TRACE for SUVI
• Algorithm Test plan
• Use algorithm to generate products
• Perform verification using proxy data
• Modify algorithm as necessary to improve accuracy
• Error Estimation/Accuracy
• Validate products against any available data
  sources, including proxy data
• Metrics vary by product
• Latency
• Evaluate run time
• Process as much data as we can, identify
  bottlenecks and optimize in order to
  assess/address latency risks

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5. Summary of Previous Results

• SWx Algorithm Development Background
• Historically implemented by SWPC in Boulder -
  Home grown
• Leveraged technology as appropriate at each
  opportunity
• Current operational algorithms implemented in C,
  C, Java, IDL, Python
• GOES NOP system highly distributed - uses
  Services Oriented Architecture (SOA), database
  driven
• SWPC coding development standards were applied,
  not NESDIS/AIT standards
• L1B Data to be created by Ground System Prime
  Contractor
• SWx Candidate Algorithms
• 31 algorithms across five instruments (22 legacy
  / 9 new)
• About 3 full-time Cooperative Institute (CIRES)
  equivalent staff
• Approach is to validate, document, and port
  current algorithms to AIT coding standards
• No alternate algorithms are currently being
  considered

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5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued)

• Algorithm Design Review
• 80 page package
• Product Set 1 only
• Held in April 2007
• Algorithm candidate selection
• Development strategy

Sample Slides from Algorithm Design Review
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5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued)

• Detailed algorithm flowcharts
• Product Set 1
• Delivered in Summer 2007
• Provided basis for evaluation and development

Examples of Magnetometer Algorithm Flowcharts
Delivered
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6. Expected Outcomes

• If successful, pre-operational code delivery
  packages for all thirty-one GOES-R space weather
  algorithms will be available, each including
• Working code consistent with the GOES-R Space
  Weather Framework.
• Code that meets most of the coding standards.
• Algorithms that meet product accuracy
  requirements with any latency issues identified.
• Complete documentation including ATBDs.
• Proxy data and regression tests to support
  validation.

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7. Major Milestones

• FY09
• Product Set 1 (all instruments)
• Held Algorithm Critical Design Review (CDR) on
  March 18, 2009
• Complete Algorithm Development and Deliver
  Software and Documentation
• FY10
• Product Set 2 (all instruments)
• Hold Algorithm Design Review (initial review)
• Hold Algorithm Critical Design Review (CDR)

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8. Accomplishments

• Critical Design Review
• 439-page package
• Product Set Delivery 1
• Held in March 2009
• Algorithm Theoretical Basis
• Implementation Strategy

Sample Slides from Critical Design Review
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8. Accomplishments (Continued)

• Data Requirements for Algorithms
• Product Set Delivery 1
• Sensor data requirement as well as ancillary and
  metadata requirements

Examples of SEISS Algorithm Data Requirements
Delivered
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8. Accomplishments Solar Imaging

• SUVI Algorithm Readiness (FY09)
• 3 Products, 2 Algorithms
• Composite Images 80 complete
• Difference Images 50 complete
• Includes (Running and Fixed)

SUVI Composite Image Algorithm Verification The
saturated regions in the long exposure have a
flat response that gets filled in by good pixels
from the short exposure.
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8. Accomplishments Solar Imaging
SUVI Difference Image Algorithm Fixed Difference
Verification
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Running Difference Verification
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8. Accomplishments X-Ray EUV Irradiance

• X-ray/EUV Algorithm Readiness (FY09)
• 2 Products, 1 Algorithm (Common Time Series Data
  Averaging Algorithm)
• X-ray 1-min avg 80 complete
• EUV 1-min avg 80 complete

Verification of XRS EUVS Averaging
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8. Accomplishments Energetic Particles

• SEISS Algorithm Readiness (FY09)
• 3 Products, 2 Algorithms
• 1-min 5-min Averages 80 complete
• Integral proton flux 90 complete

Integral Flux Algorithm Verification

• December 7-8, 2006 during SEP event
• Red Integral fluxes produced by GOES-11
  operational algorithm
• Blue Integral fluxes derived from proxy data
  (resampled GOES-11 fluxes) using GOES-R algorithm
  
• As threshold energy increases, integral flux
  decreases since fewer channels are integrated

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8. Accomplishments - Magnetic Field Environment

• Magnetometer Algorithm Readiness (FY09)
• 3 Products, 3 Algorithms
• Alternate Coord. Systems 80 complete
• Quiet Field Comparison 80 complete
• 1-minute Averages 80 complete

Verification of Quiet Field Comparison Algorithm

• Comparison between GOES-12 measured data (black
  line) and the GOES-R quiet field model algorithm
  (red line).
• Model data matches observations during quiet
  period, as required.
• Active period comparisons give good indications
  of how much the field has deviated from quiet
  times.

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9. Funding Profile (K)

• Summary of leveraged funding
• NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC Base funding supports SWPC
  civil servant scientists contributing to the GOES
  R Algorithm Readiness effort and SWx instrument
  procurement
• NOAA/NESDIS/NGDC will support this project
  through site infrastructure, IT support, and
  administrative overheads
• Budget is escalated by 5 each year.

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10. Expected Purchase Items (SWPC)

• FY08
• (374K) Grant CIRES for 6 individuals, 3
  equivalent people from May 08 to Apr 09
• EXIS scientist/developers at 75
• SUVI scientist/developer at 50
• MAG scientist/developers at 50
• SEISS scientist/developers at 50
• Project Manager/Engineer at 75
• (110K) SWPC Overhead for facilities support from
  May 08 to Apr 09
• Rent, network support, FED travel, etc.
• FY09
• (276K) Grant CIRES for 6 individuals, 2
  equivalent people from May 09 to Apr 10
• SUVI scientist/developer at 50
• MAG scientist/developers at 25
• SEISS scientist/developers at 50
• Project Manager/Engineer at 75
• (139K) Contract for EXIS Development
• (100K) SWPC Overhead for facilities support from
  May 09 to Apr 10
• Rent, network support, FED travel, etc.
• FY10