South Asian Security Architecture: Security Challenges Facing South Asia

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South Asian Security Architecture Security
Challenges Facing South Asia

• Major General Muniruzzaman (Retd)
• President
• Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security
  Studies (BIPSS)
• www.bipss.org.bd

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Presentation Highlights The security
architecture of the region is changing. The new
and emerging security challenges facing the
region. The SA terrorism scene and Counter
Terrorism measures. The role of military in SA
states. The dawn of Asia Pacific century.
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Introduction

• South Asia, also known as Southern Asia, is a
  southern region of the Asian continent, which
  comprises the sub-Himalayan countries and, for
  some authorities also includes the adjoining
  countries on the west and the east. It is
  surrounded (clockwise, from west to east) by
  Western Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Asia, and
  Southeastern Asia.
• Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Bhutan, Nepal,
  Maldives and Sri Lanka, Afghanistan comprise the
  region, and also constitute regional organization
  i.e. SAARC.
• Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are
  home to multiple nationalities, ethnic,
  religious, linguistic and caste
  communitiesidentities that were politicized
  under colonial administrations, strengthened
  during the process of constitutional reforms and
  reinforced by the nationalizing processes of
  state consolidation.

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South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC)

• SAARC, a forum to further regional cooperation
• Established in 1985.
• SAARC members
• Afghanistan.
• Bangladesh.
• Bhutan.
• India.
• Maldives.
• Nepal.
• Pakistan and
• Sri Lanka.

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South Asian Security Architecture

• Alliance pattern in SA Indo- US nuclear deal and
  Sino-Pak relations.
• Silent tension between India and China.
• Interstate unresolved issues border demarcation,
  water sharing and trade.
• Nuclear issue.
• Increased military spending.
• Control over the sea Indian Ocean, Arab Sea and
  Bay of Bengal.
• Joint military exercises (Malabar-07-2).

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SA Security Architecture

• The security paradigm of SA is Indo-centric.
• Hyphenated security landscape, i.e. India or
  Pakistan.
• Conflict ridden region.
• Conflicts are protracted in Nature, e.g. Kashmir
  issue, Tamil crisis.
• It is in a state of conflict transformation.

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Strategic relevance of SA

• One fifth of the global population housed here.
• Home of one of the fastest growing economies of
  the world India.
• Two Nuclear club members are in SA.
• Geographical contiguity with would be super
  power, China.
• Indian Ocean Rim.
• Knowledge based economy, IT power house.

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Strategic importance of South Asia

• Emergence of India as Regional Power with global
  aspiration.
• Potentiality of Nuclear/Conventional Conflicts
• Located near sea lanes (Indian Ocean, Arabian
  Sea)
• South Asia in the frontline of the energy
  resource regions (Central Asia, Persian Gulf)
• Demographic pattern-currently comprising one
  fifth of the worlds population.
• South Asia is one of the poorest and most
  misgoverned regions of the world after
  sub-Saharan Africa.

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Geo-strategic Importance of Bangladesh

• Worlds 8th most populous nation (near about 160
  Million people).
• Worlds 3rd largest Muslim state.
• Geographical vicinity with China and India
  (Living with 2 giants).
• Critical access to Indian Ocean.
• Potential for large gas reserve.
• Bridge between South and South East Asia.

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Rise of India

• India has a sustained economic growth rate of
  over 8 for last 4 years (http//indexmundi.com/in
  dia/gdp_real_growth_rate.html).
• Demographic power house of 1billion.
• India maintains worlds 3rd largest military.
• It has blue water naval ambition.
• Indigenous space capacity.
• Nuclear power with formidable expansion plan.
• Worlds largest democracy.
• Worlds largest and fastest growing middle class.
  
• Worlds service center.
• Favorite outsourcing destination.

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Role of India in SA

• A dominant power in the region.
• India is considered as a regional hegemon.
• Works as a counter balance to Chinese expansion
  in the region.
• Leads the strategic neighborhood.
• The region is outsourced to India.
• Largest trading partner within the region.

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The Role of Military in SA

• The SA state militaries inherit British
  foundation.
• They have a role beyond the classical one of
  military, e.g. Pakistan.
• Involved in nation building, e.g. Bangladesh,
  Nepal.
• SA armies have experienced active conflict, e.g.
  Pakistan and India.
• Involved in internal counter insurgency, e.g.
  India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka.
• It is the most modern element in a traditional
  society, e.g. Bangladesh.

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The Role of Military in SA

• Center of efficiency among the sea of
  inefficiency.
• Intervention in domestic politics, e.g.
  Bangladesh, Pakistan.
• UN peace support operations, e.g. Bangladesh,
  India, Pakistan.
• Involvement in the CT drive, e.g. Pakistan,
  Bangladesh, Afghanistan.
• Reconstitution of military, e.g. Afghanistan and
  Nepal.

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Traditional Security in SA
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Nuclear SA

• Houses two members of the nuclear club.
• In close proximity to another major nuclear power
  house China.
• Nuclear fall out has catastrophic regional
  affects.
• Growing demand of civilian use of nuclear power
  in SA.
• Command and Control issue.

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Nature of (protracted) Conflict in SA

• Indo-Pak conflict.
• Turmoil in Sri Lanka.
• Maoist insurgency in the region.
• Case of Afghanistan.
• Border disputes among states.
• Regime change in Nepal.

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Unresolved border dispute

• Un-demarcated land border.
• Adverse possession of land.
• Dispute over maritime boundary.
• Water sharing (of the common rivers).
• Killings in the border.

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Soaring Defence Expenditure
In USD billion
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Soaring Defence Expenditure
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Tension in the Security environment

• Tension between India Pakistan.
• Maritime dispute between Myanmar and Bangladesh.
• Maritime contention between India and Bangladesh.
• Skirmishes between BDR, BSF.
• Role of Non-state actors.
• FATA and NWFP.
• Tamil crisis.
• Volatile Afghanistan.

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Non-traditional security issues in SA
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Non-traditional security threats facing SA

• Food Security.
• Resource security.
• Energy security.
• Environmental security.
• Terrorism.

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Food Security

• The vast majority of the world's undernourished
  people - 907 million - live in developing
  countries, according to the 2007 data reported by
  the State of Food Insecurity in the World. Of
  these, 65 percent live in only seven countries
  India, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo,
  Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Ethiopia.

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Energy Security
Energy Supply indicators SA Countries
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Environmental security The case of South Asia

• If nothing is done to curb emissions, sea levels
  could rise more than three feet.
• 15 of Bangladesh could be under water if sea
  water rises 1 foot.
• Sea level rise will severely affect Maldives and
  Sri Lankan low lying areas.
• Lack of disaster preparedness.
• The mangrove forests of Sundarban islands, a
  world heritage site, the Royal Bengal tiger and
  hundreds of bird species may disappear.
• Environmental issues can also fuel violence and
  political unrest.

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Terrorism and South Asia
Marriott, Islamabad
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Terrorism and South Asia

• Global terrorism center of gravity shifts to SA.
• SA now epicenter of terrorism.
• The arc of instability.
• Islamist militancy in Afghanistan, Pakistan,
  India and Bangladesh.
• Maoist insurgency in India and Nepal.
• The Red Corridor.
• FATA.
• Hindu radicalism.
• LTTE in Sri Lanka.

Mumbai attack November 2008
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Counter Terrorism in SA

• Bilateral CT agreements.
• National CT measures and regulations.
• SAARC has adopted several conventions.
• SAARC Regional Convention on Suppression of
  Terrorism (signed by all member states and came
  into force in 1988)
• Additional Protocol to the SAARC Regional
  Convention on Suppression of Terrorism(2002)

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What specific measures can SA take

• Sharing intelligence/ information
• Enactment of consolidated strategy to counter the
  financing of terrorism to ensure transparency in
  the transaction of money
• Building an effective regional terrorism cell
• Clear understanding of one countrys conflict
  situation and not to interfere in the conflict
  directly or indirectly.

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What specific measures can SA take

• Regional CT framework.
• Coordination among regional law enforcement
  agencies.
• Regional capacity building training.
• Political Climate.
• Counter new/ emerging threats.
• Enacting regional money laundering act.
• National and regional Strategic Communication
  Plan.
• Joint exercises.

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Transnational security issues
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Transnational aspects of Human Trafficking
Types of Human Trafficking in SA

• For the purpose of prostitution, sex slavery.
• Forced labour.
• Children as Camel Jockey.
• For the purpose of organ trade.
• New trends of Slave Trade

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Human Trafficking in Bangladesh Facts and
figures

• Tens of thousands of women and children are
  trafficked from Bangladesh each year.
• They are sent to India, Pakistan and countries in
  the Middle East.
• Every month an estimated 200 to 400 Bangladeshi
  women and children are trafficked to Pakistan
• 10-15,000 are trafficked to India annually
• Boys, as young as four, are abducted or their
  parents are tricked into sending them to the Gulf
  States to be camel jockeys.

Source http//www.antislavery.org
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Transnational threats Arms Trafficking in SA
? Geographical location, poor border management
failing to tackle different criminal syndicates
? 1249 companies of 98 countries are
manufacturing small arms and light weapons. ? in
South Asia, an estimated 63 million guns have
been trafficked into the region. ? Militants and
insurgent outfits of neighbouring countries often
use Bangladesh as a transit route of illegal
arms.
Fact Sheet

Source International Action Network on Small
Arms (IANSA) report.
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Drug trafficking in SA

• South Asian region is the principal transit route
  for narcotics
• If Afghanistan is included, it is also one of the
  major drug producing regions.
• Bangladesh is situated between the Golden
  Crescent to the west and the Golden Triangle to
  the east, placing the country at continued risk
  for transit crimes.
• the anti-narcotics measures by the countries of
  the region are not adequate.

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Transnational threats Disease security

• HIV/ AIDS and
• Pandemics
• SARS
• H5N1
• Influenza etc.

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HIV/ AIDS in South Asia

• Overall HIV prevalence remains under 0.1 percent
  among the general population in Bangladesh
• UNAIDS estimates that about 12,000 Bangladeshis
  were living with HIV at the end of 2007
• UNAIDS estimates that there are 2.5 million HIV
  positives in India, which is a grave concern for
  Bangladesh.
• Pakistan and Bangladesh current HIV epidemics in
  both countries occur mainly within networks of
  injecting drug users

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The dawn of Asia Pacific century

• The rise of China and India.
• Economic development of the smaller states.
• Shift of economic power house to the region.
• The Market is here.
• Growing western interest in the region.

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Conclusion
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Question and Answer Session
www.bipss.org.bd
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Thank You
Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security
Studies (BIPSS)
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