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CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS CENTER

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Stennis Space Flight Center. May 11, 2000. RESEARCH AND APPLICATION TEAM ... Queensland Department of Natural Resources University of Queensland, Australia ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS CENTER


1
CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH AND
APPLICATIONS CENTER
  • Norman L. Miller, Principal Investigator
  • Regional Climate Center, Earth Sciences Division
  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  • University of California
  • NASA/RESAC Annual Meeting
  • Stennis Space Flight Center
  • May 11, 2000

2
RESEARCH AND APPLICATION TEAM
  • Dr. Norman Miller - Hydrometeorologist, LBNL,
    Regional Climate Center Group Leader
  • Dr. Jinwon Kim - Meteorologist, LBNL Staff
    Scientist, Regional Climate Center (RCC)
  • Dr. Phaedon Kyriakidis - Geostatistician, LBNL
    Postdoctoral Scholar, RCC
  • Dr. Nigel Quinn - Water Resources Engineer, LBNL
    Staff Scientist, and USBR
  • Prof. William Dietrich - Geomorphologist,
    UC-Berkeley, Geology Dept. Chairman, and RCC
  • Dr. Mauro Casadei - Geomorphologist, UC-Berkeley,
    Postdoctoral Scholar, Geology Dept.
  • Prof. George Brimhall - Geologist,
    UC-Berkeley/Space Science Center, 2 Grad.
    Students
  • Prof. James Frew - Computational Geographer,
    UC-Santa Barbara, Sch. Env. Sci. Man.
  • Prof. John Dracup - Civil Engineer, UC-Berkeley
    Civil Engineering Dept. and RCC
  • Prof. Xu Liang - Macroscale Hydrologic Modeler,
    UC-Berkeley Civil Eng. Dept. and RCC
  • Senior Advisory Committee
  • Dr. Sally Benson -Geohydrologist, LBNL Earth
    Sciences Division Director
  • Prof. Inez Fung - Atmospheric Scientist,
    UC-Berkeley, Atmos. Sciences Center Director
  • Prof. Jeff Dozier - Computational Geographer,
    UC-Santa Barbara, Sch. Env. Sci. Man.
  • new member of the Regional Climate Center (RCC)

3
COLLABORATING PARTNERSHIPS
  • NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center NOAA
    National Weather Service-Sacramento
  • NOAA NCEP Climate Prediction Center SIO
    Experimental Climate Prediction Center
  • California Department of Water Resources San
    Joaquin River Management Program
  • California Department of Conservation UCB Earth
    Resources Center
  • California Department of Forestry and Fire
    Protection UCSB Alexandria Digital Library
  • U.S. Geological Service U.S. Forest Service
  • U.S. Bureau of Reclamation NOAA International
    Research Institute
  • Korean Meteorological Administration Changwon
    National University, South Korea
  • Queensland Department of Natural
    Resources University of Queensland, Australia
  • Chinese Ministry of Water Resources Arkwright
    Insurance Company

4
Application Approach and Significant Results
  • Dynamic climate and stream flow modeling and
    analysis
  • Statistical climate modeling of precipitation and
    stream flow uncertainty
  • Landslide and sediment transport measurements and
    modeling
  • Water quality monitoring and modeling
  • Identification of mine contaminants
  • Satellite data applications - current and future
  • Impact assessment reports and publications,
    workshops, and lessons learned

5
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6
Western US Domains at 36km and 12km Resolutions
7
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8
Downscaled Information for Water Resource
Management
9
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10
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11
Short-Term and Season Prediction Results
  • During the California wet season (November 1999
    to April 2000) we have posted daily forecast
    products on our web http//esd.lbl.gov/RCC
  • The National Weather Service is a serious user,
    the CA Dept. of Water Resources and others are
    being entrained as serious users.
  • We completed a November 1999 to April 2000
    seasonal forecast inn collaboration with NOAA and
    UCLA.
  • Twelve California River Basins are coupled to the
    RCSM now.
  • Analysis of this years seasonal simulation is in
    progress.

12
OBSERVED 30-YEAR PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
13
SIMULATED 8-YEAR PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
14
Mean-Monthly Observed and Simulated
Precipitation California, Oregon, Arizona, Mexico
(1988-1995)
15
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16
Multi-Year Hindcast at Basin Scale
17
Precipitation Evaluation
18
Streamflow Evaluation
19
Mean-Monthly Percent Streamflow Occurrence
20
Multi-Year Hindcast Results
  • Eight-year hindcast captures major precipitation
    features well.
  • Simulated basin-average precipitation correlates
    with observation better than 80 in four CA
    basins.
  • Hydrologic models show good verification in the
    four CA basins.
  • American rqo .83 Carson rqo .97 Merced rqo
    .92 Russian rqo .86
  • Four CA basin coupled streamflow simulation
    generally overpredicted.
  • American rqs .73 Carson rqs .67 Merced rqs
    .61 Russian rqs .87
  • Need to better understand upscaling of point
    (rain gauge) precipitation and downscaling of
    gridded precipitation.
  • Data availability and quality control need
    improvement (e.g. dam release).

21
Water Vapor Climate Change Difference
2xCO2-Control
22
CALIFORNIA CLIMATE SENSITIVITY STUDY HadCM2 -gt
RCSM
HISTORICAL CONTROL CLIMATE
2xCO2 - CONTROL CLIMATE
23
CALIFORNIA CLIMATE SENSITIVITY STUDY Basin Scale
Precipitation and Streamflow Response
24
Climate Change Sensitivity Study Results
  • American River stream flow may double in volume
    from January to May due to temperature increase
    effect on snowmelt.
  • American River may decrease by half during May to
    July due to decreased snowpack in storage during
    the winter.
  • American River may triple in volume August to
    November due to the very high water vapor in the
    HadCM2 2xCO2 scenario.
  • Russian River may increase in volume from
    December to February, and decrease in volume from
    February to May.
  • Peak stream flow shifts from May-June to
    February-March for the American, and from March
    to February for the Russian.
  • Present 2xCO2 climate projections need further
    improvements, we can discuss likelihood but not
    certainties.

25
Stochastic Downscaling Approach
  • Establish parametric time series models of
    environmental variables from observed records at
    monitoring station locations.
  • Distribute model parameters in space, accounting
    for correlation with satellite products, e.g.
    digital elevation models or land-cover types.
  • Generate stochastic simulations of alternative
    parameter realizations (maps), which exactly
    reproduce the observed model parameters at
    station locations, and measures of
    scale-dependent (cross)correlation with satellite
    products.
  • Output is a set of time series models at any
    location, used for generating alternative
    simulated records of environmental variables,
    e.g. precipitation or temperature.
  • The set of alternative realizations is used for
    propagating uncertainty into impact assessment
    studies, e.g. stream-flow modeling.

26
Monthly Characteristics of Simulated Precipitation
Number of Dry Days/Month
Number of Dry Days/Month
Number of Wet Days/Month
Number of Wet Days/Month
Box plot indicates range of variability,
dotobserved, whiskers5095Prob.Interval
27
Uncertainty Bounds for Stream flow due to
Stochastic Precipitation Input
28
Stochastic Downscaling Results
  • A stochastic method for simulating precipitation
    has been completed.
  • Statistical analysis has produced new spatial
    information on the mean proportion of wet days
    per month.
  • Uncertainty propagation of climate model
    forecasts to hydrological forecasts is completed.
  • Stochastically generated 95 probability of
    stream flow volume has been generated.
  • A spatial-temporal set of predictors for
    fine-scale impacts (e.g. landslides) has been
    generated and will be further refined with our
    mesoscale model output.

29
Predicting Shallow Landslides and Debris
Flows Approach
  • Shallow landslides and debris flows are an
    increasing hazard due in part to development in
    hilly unstable terrain.
  • Timber harvesting and poor road construction is a
    major cause of river sedimentation and declining
    salmon runs in the west.
  • We have developed a dynamic model and performed
    several tests using rainfall time series in
    California watersheds.
  • Estimations of the consequent path, potential
    size, and final depositional area of debris flows
    applied to the SHALSTAB model (steady state
    model).
  • The steady state model is being used by USGS,
    Bureau of Land Management, CA Dept. of Mines, CA
    Dept. of Forestry and Fire Protection.

30
Landslide and Debris Flow Modeling Results
  • Statistical-dynamical downscaled precipitation is
    being generated.
  • Spatio-temporal distribution maps of the relative
    potential for debris flow initiation due to
    precipitation are being generated.
  • Landslide Factor of Safety (FS) threshold values
    for the SF Bay area is being generated.
  • Dynamic and physically-based hillslope hydrology
    model has been developed to capture subsurface
    flow distributions, including fractured bedrock
    transmissivity.
  • Channel particle size distribution mapping begun,
    initial stochastic model formulated.
    Statistical-dynamical sediment transport model
    will be developed.

31
WATER QUALITY MODELING AND MONITORING PROGRESS
  • REAL-TIME SALINITY FORECASTING IN TSAN JOAQUIN
    RIVER
  • Development of a decision support system to
    communicate flow and salinity conditions in the
    San Joaquin River and to determine source of
    oxygen depletion in Stockton Ship Channel.
  • Formation of an interagency team (LBNL, USBR,
    DWR, CRWQCB) to continue development of river
    water quality monitoring network.
  • Cooperative work with Panoche-Silver Creek
    Resource Conservation District to develop early
    warning flood forecasting system has started.
  • Develop enhanced precipitation monitoring system
    in the upper watershed to enhance water quality
    forecasting and management in the San Joaquin
    River.
  • Cooperation with Central Valley Regional Water
    Quality Control Board to develop dynamic TMDLs
    sensitive to future climate change.

32
Weekly Forecasts of Flow and Water Quality
Conditions are on our Website
33
Mine Site Runoff Identification Approach
  • Identify minerals that cause acidification to
    aquatic ecosystems.
  • Develop portable UV, Visible, and IR
    spectrometers that identify hazardous runoff and
    also non-hazardous runoff.
  • Develop software to automatically reduce IR
    spectra for digitally mapping mine dumps.
  • Verification of spectrometers in the field.
  • Laboratory analysis of field samples.

34
Mine Site Runoff Identification Results
  • Developed the portable UV/VIS/IR spectrometers
    capability to identify weathered minerals that
    impact water quality, field testing at the Cerro
    Gordo abandoned mine site, Inyo Mountains, CA.
  • Acquired JPL flight time of AVIRIS over Cerro
    Gordo mine and processed the resulting images.
  • Irene Sanchez Montero completed a Master Science,
    Geological and Environmental Studies,
    UC-Berkeley, 1999. Characterization of abandoned
    mine waste piles at the Penn Mine, Calavaras
    County, CA using UV/VIS/IR spectrometers.
  • Developing the automated mineral identification
    routine for reflectance spectra in the UV/VIS/IR
    spectra libraries acquired, utilizing AVIRIS at
    Penn Mine Site.
  • Lab development of the real-time computer program
    to automatically reduce the IR spectra for
    reconnaissance digital mapping of abandoned mine
    dumps.

35
REMOTELY SENSED DATA APPLICATIONS
  • AVHRR and SAR Snow Cover Area (SCA) is beginning
    to be evaluated with model snow depth. Daily SCA
    maps will be produced in collaboration with the
    Arizona RESAC, USCOE, and UCSB/ESSW. Snow water
    equivalent (SWE) will also be generated.
  • AVHRR monthly Leaf Area Index and Green Leaf
    Fraction is used in Land-Surface model.
  • Digital Terrain Elevation Data is being used to
    compute hydrologic model parameters.
  • High resolution altimetry data is being used, and
    fine-scale 1-4m DEM via IKONOS will be used for
    landslide model testing.
  • Planning to utilize data buyback and data from
    future missions
  • Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (2000
    launch) SWE
  • Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission fine-scale
    topographic data
  • MODIS snow cover area
  • Vegetation Canopy Lidar (2000 launch) 2 year
    vegetation mapping
  • Apply satellite products to statistical
    downscaling applications

36
Impact Assessments, Reports, Workshops, Outreach
  • The IPCC 2000 Scientific Assessment - N. Miller
    and J. Kim ( Contributing Authors to the IPCC
    Third Assessment Report, Chapter 10. Regional
    Climate Simulation Evaluation and Projections)
  • U.S. National Assessment 2000 - N. Miller
    (Contributing Author on Mega-West Report, Coastal
    Report). Jan. 2000 U.S. National Assessment 2000
    Water Sector - N. Miller, J. Kim, R. Hartman
    (Authors to manuscript JAWRA Special Issue on
    Climate Change and Water Resources). Dec. 1999
  • Confronting Climate Change in California
    Ecological Impacts on the Golden State, (C.
    Field, F. Davis, C. Gaines, P. Matson, J, Melack,
    and N. Miller), sponsored by the Ecological
    Society of America and the Union of Concerned
    Scientists. Nov. 1999.
  • California Climate, Impacts, and Information
    Workshop - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
    Oct. 4, 1999, Report is on our web under
    OUTREACH. (N. Miller host)
  • California Climate Change Panel - D. Cayan, M.
    Dettinger, W. Gutowski, R. Howitt, J. Lund, N.
    Miller, T. Wigley
  • Meetings with the CA Energy and Agriculture
    Commissioners, several public forums.

37
New Funding Leveraged Partially from the Berkeley
RESAC
  • NASA/SENH- CASSANDRA A storm based model for
    forecasting the initiation and runout of debris
    flows. W. Dietrich (UC-Berkeley), A. Howard
    (UV-Charlottesville), N. Miller (LBNL), J. Kim
    (LBNL), M. Casadei (UC-Berkeley)
  • NASA/IDS - Applications of Remotely-Sensed Data
    for Seasonal and Long-Term Hydroclimate
    Predictions. J. Kim (LBNL), N. Miller (LBNL), R.
    Bales (UA), L. Mearns (NCAR).
  • EPA/STAR - Vulnerability assessment of San
    Joaquin Basin water supply, ecological resources,
    and rural economy due to climate variability and
    extreme weather events. J. Dracup (UCLA), N.
    Miller (LBNL), N. Quinn (LBNL), R. Howitt
    (UC-Davis), L. Grober (Central Valley Regional
    Water Quality Control Board)
  • CALFED - Real-Time forecasting of contaminant
    loading from the Panoche/Silver Creek watershed
    to the San Joaquin River. N. Quinn (LBNL), N.
    Miller (LBNL), M. Martin (Westside Resources
    conservation District), N. Drake (Coordinated
    Resource Management Program), F. Charles
    (McGulley, Frick, and Gillman, Inc.), C. Eacock
    (USBR)

38
PROGRESS PROJECTION YEAR ONE
  • Task 1. Establish western U.S. domain at 36 km
    resolution, begin western U.S. baseline
    simulation using NCEP reanalysis as hindcast, and
    prepare an expanded database.
  • Task 2. Couple CNRFC basins and parameters to the
    existing land-surface module of the RCSM.
  • Task 3. Begin 2xCO2 climate sensitivity data
    study using the Hadley Centres IPCC scenario.
  • Task 4. Begin landslide and sediment transport
    model development.
  • Task 5. Begin environmental site inventory of
    abandoned mines in the Sierra Foothills.
  • Task 6. Advance water quality monitoring and
    build Decision Support System
  • Task 7. Begin to link RCSM output data to NASA,
    USBR, DWR, NWS, NCEP, ESSW user interfaces.
  • Task 8. Significant Results Conference October
    4, 1999

39
PROGRESS PROJECTION YEAR TWO
  • Task 1. Continue with tasks identified in Year 1.
  • Task 2. Complete web-based user information
    system, expand and improve based on user
    feedback.
  • Task 3. Evaluate western U.S. baseline simulation
    using NCEP reanalysis as hindcast.
  • Task 4. Evaluate downscaled 2xCO2 climate
    sensitivity study, prepare a second climate
    change study coordinated with the State.
  • Task 5. The landslide model will be tested as a
    hindcast using observed precipitation.
  • Task 6. Abandoned mine site inventory in the
    Mojave desert will begin.
  • Task 7. Significant Results Conference, expand
    user and stakeholders group.
  • Task 8. NASA RESAC Progress Report.

40
PROGRESS PROJECTION YEAR THREE
  • Task 1. Continue with tasks from Year 1 and Year
    2.
  • Task 2. Significant Results and Stakeholder
    Workshop, assess effectiveness.
  • Task 3. Reports on advances to users and
    stakeholders .
  • Task 4. NASA RESAC Report.
  • Task 5. Generate long-term sustainable resources
    for continuing activities.

41
LESSONS LEARNED
  • Completion of tasks, peer reviewed publications,
    and scientific presentations are only part of the
    definition of success.
  • Outreach to both scientific users, the general
    public, and Congress, as well as delivery of NASA
    value-added products (e.g. climate simulations)
    may be the definition of a successful Regional
    Earth Science Applications Center.
  • Participation in the USGCRP and regional climate
    change research programs are very important to
    the RESAC program.
  • Computational capability and data storage is a
    growing limitation, additional hardware will
    always be needed.
  • Long-Term funding is a necessity for gaining
    public support as a center.
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