Preliminary Modeling Results

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Preliminary Modeling Results
Rhode Island GHG Action Plan Renewable Portfolio
Standards

• Presentation Overview
• Input assumptions and modeling approach
• Generation and credit prices for two cases
• Change in electricity price
• Generation mix
• Cost and carbon reductions

Alison BailieStephen BernowTellus
InstituteDecember 4, 2002
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Input Assumptions

• Two RPS cases for Rhode Island, with renewable
  generation achieving 20 or 15 of total sales by
  2020
• Wind generation imported from New York State is
  permitted following GIS eligibility case,
  includes cost adder of 1.5 cents/kWh
• Assume CT RPS remains at 2011 levels until 2020
  (4 class I and 7 class II) and MA RPS increases
  to 7 for new resources by 2012 and remains at
  this level to 2020 (existing stays at 5
  throughout)
• Wind resources in model adjusted basedon recent
  mapping analysis by TrueWind

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Input Assumptions, cont.

• Biomass prices based on EIA assumptions but
  removed demolition debris from supply
• Capital costs for wind decline with learning but
  increase as best sites are used (1100/kW in
  2010, 1500/kW in 2020)

• Natural gas prices based on EIA assumptions but
  will fluctuate with natural gas demand

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Modeling Approach

• Our approach is to consider RPS in MA, CT, and RI
  together and model the NE power pool as a whole.
• Cost and carbon reduction estimates are relative
  to the EIA base case with no RPS in CT and only
  partial fulfillment of MA RPS
• Costs and carbon reduction are allocated to RI
  based on fraction of new renewable generation
  required by RI RPS, compared with total of MA
  CT RI
• This approach shares costs rather than assigning
  highest cost to RI

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Renewable Generation in NERI reaches 20 in 2020
case

• just new renewables- levelized REC price 2.30
  cents/kWh
• all prices and costs in real 2000

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Renewable Generation in NERI reaches 15 in 2020
case

• just new renewables- levelized REC price 2.09
  cents/kWh
• all price and costs in real 2000

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Changes in Electricity Prices

• Estimate for Rhode Island (2000 cents/kWh)
• 20 case 15 case

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Generation from New Renewables 2020 - New England

• Most avoided generation is natural gas

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Rhode Island Policy Impacts
CO2 emission reductions represent 4 (20 case)
and 3 (15 case) of estimated total Rhode
Island emissions in 2020
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Components of Costs for Rhode Island
(cumulative net present value, 2000-2020, million
2000)