EEEGEF 492'12 Estimation

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EEE/GEF 492.12Estimation
Royal Military College of Canada Electrical and
Computer Engineering

• Other sources
• - van Vliet, 7.1-2
• - other professors at RMC

Dr. Terry Shepard shepard_at_rmc.ca 613-541-6000
ext. 6031
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A carelessly estimated project is unlikely to
complete on schedule if it completes.
A well estimated project means reasonable work
weeks and a reasonable chance of completing
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Review

• How does planning relate to estimating?

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What needs to be estimated?

• Basic list
• Size
• Resources
• Schedule

- in the context of scope and quality decisions
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Methods of Estimation

• What can we do to help you estimate?

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lousy methods of estimation

• Parkinsonian estimation
• Price to Win

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Parkinsonian Estimation

• Parkinsons Law
• Work expands to fill the available volume
• It must be done in 18 months, and there are 10
  people available to work on it, so the job will
  take roughly 180 person-months.
• Weaknesses
• may be a gross overestimate or a gross
  underestimate
• overestimates waste resources and lead to bells
  and whistles
• Underestimates, when the estimate is done on this
  basis, are likely to be inflexible
• high risk of failure in both cases

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Price-to-Win Estimation

• Estimate based on the price and schedule believed
  needed to win a bid
• Why
• lack of trust in or understanding of legitimate
  estimates
• once you have the contract...
• Weaknesses
• accepting low ball bids usually leads to complete
  disaster for the customer
• high stress for the supplier

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Better Estimation Methods

• Estimation by Analogy
• Expert Judgment
• Wideband Delphi
• Two Approaches to Estimation
• top down
• bottom up
• Algorithmic Models mostly top down
• Function points
• Cocomo

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Estimation by Analogy

• Comparing this project to other similar completed
  projects
• can be done at the system or subsystem
• Strength
• estimate is based on actual experience
• Weakness
• Not always clear to what degree the previous
  project is representative of the constraints,
  techniques, personnel, etc. of the new project

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Expert Judgment

• Consulting one or more experts
• Strengths
• expert is able to factor in differences between
  projects
• expert can consider exceptional conditions
• Weakness
• only as good as the estimator
• estimator is subject to personal motivators
• required experience is in short supply

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Wideband Delphi (group consensus technique)

• step 1 - have firm requirements for function and
  quality
• step 2 - produce a candidate design in enough
  detail that each individual design element is
  comprehensible.
• step 3 - each estimator produces a size estimate
  for each design element and submits them to a
  moderator
• step 4 - for each design element the moderator
  produces an unlabeled distribution plot
• step 5 - without revealing their estimates, the
  estimators explain the rationale behind them.
• step 6 - steps 3 through 5 are repeated until the
  estimate satisfactorily converges

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Wideband Delphi
Initial Estimate in SLOC
2000
0
1000
Round 4 Estimate in SLOC
2000
0
1000
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Wideband Delphi - results

• the estimates do tend to converge
• the converged value is typically better than the
  mean or median of the first round estimates, and
  more accurate than the best estimates of the best
  individual first round estimators

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Two Approaches to Estimation
An overall cost estimate for the project is
derived from the global properties of the
software product

• Top Down

The cost of each software component is estimated
the costs are then summed to derive an overall
cost

• Bottom Up

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Top-down Estimating

• Strengths
• system level focus (based on experience with
  entire completed projects)
• will not miss the costs of system integration,
  developing users manuals, configuration
  management, project management, etc.
• Weakness
• may not identify low level technical problems
• may miss components (mis-identify scope)
• no detailed cost justification

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Bottom-up Estimating

• Strengths
• earlier understanding of low level technical
  problems
• component estimates will be backed up by personal
  commitment of the individual responsible for the
  job
• detailed cost justification (other analysis is
  possible)
• Weakness
• tends to miss system level costs (these must be
  included in the work breakdown structure)
• hard to estimate system level costs until
  component costs are estimated
• hard to model incidental project activities
• reading, reviewing, meeting, fixing, etc.
• hard to model incidental non-project activities
• training, personal business, non-project
  communications, etc.

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Algorithmic Models
Estimate f(x1, x2,... xn )

• use one or more mathematical algorithms based on
  variables which are considered to be major cost
  drivers
• lines of source code
• raw function points, or elements thereof
• programmer capability
• schedule constraints
• execution time constraints

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Algorithmic Models

• Strengths
• objective
• no influence of personal motivators
• repeatable
• sensitivity analysis possible
• Weakness
• must be calibrated (does the new project match
  the old data?)
• difficult to handle exceptional conditions
  (exceptional personnel,
  exceptional teamwork)
• still a lack of quantitative data

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Review

• Why Estimate
• To aid in planning
• Some Estimating Methods
• Parkinson
• Price to Win
• Analogy
• Expert Judgement
• Experience-based estimate
• Wideband Delphi-method
• Algorithmic Models

not recommended
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Next Estimating SizeFunction Points