Mediumterm multigas mitigation strategies

1
Medium-term multi-gas mitigation strategies

• Ger Klaassen Markus Amann, Lena Höglund, Fabian
  Wagner, Wilfried Winiwarter

2
Approach

• Starting point
• National projections of economic activities
  (energy use, agriculture, industrial production,
  etc.)
• For groups of countries (e.g., world regions of
  global model, etc.)
• For medium-term time horizon (e.g., 2020)
• Compare implied GHG projections with regional
  results of global stabilization analyses
• Derive GHG emission targets consistent with
  global analysis
• Explore medium-term mitigation portfolios that
  meet these targets, starting from the national
  activity projections
• Mitigation costs
• Distributional aspects
• Return emissions and carbon prices to global
  analysis

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Baseline development of European GHGs 43
countries Mt CO2-eq
Based on national projections of activity data
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Stabilization case GHG emissions by world
regionGt C-eq
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Illustrative example

• Apply GAINS to explore least-cost mitigation
  strategies
• For the national baseline projections for 43
  European regions for 2020
• Explore a further 15 cut in total GHG emissions
  beyond current legislation
• With CO2 measures only
• Methane case With CO2 and CH4 measures
• Multi-gas case With CO2, CH4 and N2O measures

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Emission reductions and costsfor the 15 GHG cut
in 2020
GHG reductions Mt CO2-eq
Mitigation costs billion /year
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Mitigation portfolio Changes in fuel
consumption, CO2-only case of baseline
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Main mitigation measuresMulti-gas case, Poland
and UK, 2020 Mt CO2-eq
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Marginal costs for the 15 GHG cut /t CO2-eq
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Conclusions

• GAINS offers a practical tool for exploring
  national medium-term mitigation portfolios
  consistent with long-term stabilization targets
• Not policy-prescriptive, but to explore
  implications of alternative stabilization
  strategies on individual countries
• Inclusion of non-CO2 GHGs in mitigation
  strategies creates economic flexibility to
  improve cost-effectiveness
• For a 15 reduction of European GHG emissions in
  2020
• Costs drop from 0.18 of GDP for a CO2-only
  strategyto 0.04 for a multi-gas approach