Presentation to Grammar School Chairs of Governors and Headteachers

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• Presentation to Grammar School Chairs of
  Governors and Headteachers
• 22nd June 2006
• Email copies cpayne_at_cfbt.com

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Tonights Agenda
The Purpose of tonights meeting is to share with
you some emerging issues which we believe will
impact on the Lincolnshire Grammar schools and to
discuss the best way forward.
How does falling rolls and potential changes in
the mix of population impact on selection at 11?

• How are grammar schools going to deal with the 14
  to 19 agenda, especially the specialist diplomas
  linked to the common prospectus and application
  process at the age of 13?

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Policy on Grammar Schools

• Lincolnshire County Council is committed to high
  quality grammar school education.
• It wishes to see academic excellence from its
  grammar schools
• It does not wish to see grammar schools filling
  their places with children who are not best
  suited to a grammar school education
• It believes the best way of retaining it grammar
  schools is through ensuring they are high
  performing schools.

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Key data on future numbers at secondary level
Year 6 Primary 2005 7,884 pupils
Year 7 Secondary 2005 8,592 pupils
Traditionally a net increase of 230 to 415 pupils
Lets assume a net intake of 330 pupils in 2006
This gives a transfer number of 8,214 pupils
which is 4.5 down on year 7 in 2005.
Current 2005 secondary population 11 16 is
43,270
Estimate 2010 secondary population 11 16 is
38,500
This represents a total fall of 11 in total
population assuming a net intake of pupils in
year 7
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Characteristics of Lincolnshires changing
population

• Birth rate falling disproportionate changes
  from high socio-economic groups small families
  (1.2) on a much longer cycle (approx 35 years) to
  low socio-economic groups smaller families (2.3)
  on a much shorter cycle (approx 23 years)

• Inward migration of above average students into
  Lincolnshire from borders, mainly grammar schools
  plus Welbourn some students leave to attend
  comprehensives across the border

• High level building developments are not being
  translating into significant increase in school
  aged children

• Significant immigration in south and east of
  county from Portugal and Eastern Europe E2L
  relatively low ability and low aspirational
  children.

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Grammar School level 5 on intake
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Grammar School level 5 on intake
LCC performance Key Stage 2 Level 5 over the last
5 years has been between 26 and 31 in English
and Mathematics.
Grammar school intake - 5 level 3 in maths or
English e.g. bottom 23 of Lincs pupils
If grammar schools are taking the top 25 of
pupils why do you on average have approximately
65 of pupils entering with level 5s in English
and/or maths? Only 3 schools have over 75 of
intake with level 5 in English. 8 have over 75
in maths
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National Rank Order distribution of school
performance
Grammar
Comprehensive
Sec Moderns
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Impact analysis of this data on Lincolnshire
schools
Two thirds of Lincolnshire pupils attend school
in selective areas, some selective areas have
very significant falls in population. The danger
is that grammar schools will continue to fill
their places leaving the secondary modern
population more limited in ability
This could impact further on standards in grammar
schools and lead to more failing grammar schools
many could be challenged as coasting
The secondary moderns could then have an
impossible task of getting above floor targets
leading to government intervention
e.g. In East Lindsey 47 reached 5A to C, if the
grammar schools take 30 of the intake next year,
the 70 of pupils left could be projected to get
17 which is 24.3 overall of the Sec. Mod. intake
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Areas for discussion?
Is our analysis correct?
What are your aspirations for grammar school
education?
Can you carry on as before?
If change is necessary, what should we all be
doing?
Can we guarantee place for those with level 5s?
Do we need to look for partnerships of grammar
schools?
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What are views on dealing with vocational options
at the age of 14?
Are you planning local partnerships to offer such
courses in you school?
If YES, will you be limiting access, e.g.
Selecting or will it be open access? You may not
be allowed through the gateway approval
mechanisms if selective?
What happens to the specialist status, if you do
not offer such options?
Ideally we need some common policy for students
across our grammar schools?