IFPS Best Practice WFO Monterey

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IFPS Best PracticeWFO Monterey

• The Basic Idea Weve had a long-standing
  practice of collecting daily Tmax and Tmin data
  from many sites across our CWA about 70
  locations.
• Use serp tool to enter these values into Tmax
  and Tmin forecast grids for present day thus
  creating analysis (verification) grids.
  (Typically done about 6 pm LT by public service
  unit.)
• Yields 3 useful products
• (1) Tmax/Tmin forecast error at each
  observation location.
• (2) Detailed Tmax/Tmin analysis fields for
  potential use in generating next days
  forecast grids.
• (3) Graphical display of Tmax/Tmin error fields.

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An example for Tmax start with the final
forecast grid for today
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Use the Serp tool to adjust values based on
todays observed highs (here using a subset of 52
locations well-dispersed across our CWA)
Note once observed highs are entered, values at
ends of slider bars give errors at each forecast
point.
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Yields observed high temperature grid for
present day
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Before entering the observed highs into the Tmax
forecast grid for today, however, save it in the
slot for yesterdays Tmax forecast grid.Then,
use the change_over_time tool to find the error
grid.
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Error Grid (in WrkTemp)