Afrobarometer, Where is Africa Going And How Does Namibia Fit In

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Afrobarometer, Where is Africa Going? And How
Does Namibia Fit In?

• 23 June 2006
• Windhoek, Namibia

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• The Afrobarometer
• Lived Poverty
• Africans Views of Economics
• Africans Views of Corruption
• Partisan Identification
• Africans Views of Democracy

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Afrobarometer
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Purpose

• A comparative series of national public attitude
  surveys in Africa on Democracy, Markets and Civil
  Society
• Scientific project dedicated to accurate and
  precise measurement of nationally representative
  samples of publics
• Policy relevant project that inserts results into
  national and global policy discussion
• Ultimately, advancing democracy in Africa by
  promoting the voice of public opinion

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When and Where

• In reforming African countries (generally,
  multi party regimes that have had a founding
  democratic election, or a re-democratizing
  election)
• Round 1 (12 countries, mid-1999 to mid 2001)
• in West Africa Ghana, Mali, Nigeria
• in East Africa Uganda and Tanzania
• in Southern Africa Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi,
  Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe
• Round 2 (16 countries, mid 2002-late 2003)
• repeats original 12 (Zimbabwe in early 2004)
• Adds Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, and Senegal
• Round 3 (18 countries, 2005)
• Adds Madagascar and Benin

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Who Does It?

• Network
• 3 Core Partners
• Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa)
• Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana)
• Michigan State University
• 16 National Partners (NGO, public, private)
• Other Individual and Institutional Research
  Associates
• Regular Workshops
• To discuss policies and protocols and appoint
  committees to produce concentrated pieces of work
  like draft questionnaires or revisions of survey
  methodologies
• Summer School / Capacity Building
• To build Network skills in scientific analysis,
  including social statistics, report writing and
  relevant literature

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Who Does It?

• Southern Africa
• Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa)
• West Africa
• Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana)
• East Africa
• Michigan State University /
• Wilsken Agencies (Uganda)

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By Round 4

• Southern Africa
• Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa)
• West Africa
• Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana)
• East Africa
• Wilsken Agencies
• Support Units
• Michigan State University
• University of Cape Town

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Who Supports It?

• Swedish International Development Cooperation
  Agency (SIDA)
• U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)
• Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs (NMFA)
• Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation
• Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• World Bank
• UK Department for International Development
  (DFID)
• Danish Governance Trust Fund at the World Bank
• Royal Dutch Embassy in Namibia
• Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation
• Trocaire Regional Office for Eastern Africa
• Michigan State University
• African Development Bank
• U.S. National Science Foundation
• Konrad Adenauer Stiftung

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Sampling

• Random
• Clustered
• Stratified
• Area Probability
• Proportionate (some exceptions e.g Tanzania,
  South Africa)
• Multi Stage
• Nationally representative
• Minimum Sample Size of 1200 gives a margin of
  sampling error of /- 3 percentage points (2.8
  points)

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Interviewing

• Personal, face-to-face interviews
• Questionnaires translated in to local languages
• Interviewers fluent in local languages

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Lived Poverty
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Measuring Lived Poverty

• Over the past year, how often, if ever have you
  or your family gone without
• Enough food to eat?
• Enough clean water for home use?
• Medicines of medical treatment?
• Electricity in your home?
• Enough fuel to cook your food?
• A cash income?

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Measuring Lived Poverty

• Over the past year, how often, if ever have you
  or your family gone without
• 0. Never
• 1. Just Once or Twice
• 2. Several Times
• 3. Many Times
• 4. Always

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Lived Poverty Food Shortages
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Lived Poverty
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Increasing Lived PovertyFood Shortages
(2000-2005)
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Decreasing Lived PovertyFood Shortages
(2000-2005)
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Africans Views of Economics
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Measuring Economic Evaluations

• Present
• In general, how would you describe The present
  economic condition of this country?
• Past
• Looking back, how do you rate the following
  compared to twelve months ago? Economic
  conditions in this country?
• Future
• Looking ahead, do you expect the following to be
  better or worse? Economic conditions in this
  country in twelve months time?

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Present National Economic Conditions
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Evaluations of the National Economy
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Increasing Satisfaction WithPresent National
Economic Conditions In Africa (2000-2005)
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Stable / Stagnant Satisfaction WithPresent
National Economic Conditions In Africa
(2000-2005)
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Declining Satisfaction WithPresent National
Economic Conditions in Africa (2000-2005)
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Measuring Support for Economic Reform

• User fees
• It is better to raise educational standards, even
  if we have to pay school fees
• Job cuts
• The government cannot afford so many public
  employees and should lay some of them off.
• Economic impact
• The governments economic policies have helped
  most people only a few have suffered (percent
  agree/agree very strongly).
• Economic patience
• In order for the economy to get better in the
  future, it is necessary for us to accept some
  hardships now.

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Economic Reform
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Economic Impact
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Economic Patience
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Increasing Economic Patience in Africa (2000-2005)
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Stable Economic Patience in Africa (2000-2005)
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Decreasing Economic Patience (2000-2005)
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Africans Views of Corruption
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Measuring Understandings of Corruption

• For each of the following, please indicate
  whether you think the act is not wrong at all,
  wrong but understandable, or wrong and
  punishable.
• A public official decides to locate a development
  project in an area where his friends and
  supporters lived
• A government official gives a job to someone from
  his family who does not have adequate
  qualifications
• A government official demands a favour or an
  additional payment for some service that is part
  of his job

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Jobs For Relatives
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Measuring Perceptions of Corruption

• How many of the following people do you think are
  involved in corruption, or havent you heard
  enough about them to say
• The President and officials in his office
• Members of Parliament
• Elected local government councilors
• National government officials
• Local government officials
• Police
• Tax officials
• Judges and magistrates
• Health workers
• Teachers and school administrators

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Perception of Corruption National Government
Officials
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Perception of CorruptionPolice
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Perceptions of Corruption, 2000-2005
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Declining Perceptions of CorruptionNational Govt
Officials (2000-2005)
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Stable Perceptions of CorruptionNational Govt
Officials (2000-2005)
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Increasing Perceptions of CorruptionNational
Govt Officials (2000-2005)
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Measuring Victimization by Corruption

• In the past year, how often (if ever) have you
  had to pay a bribe, give a gift, or do a favour
  to government officials in order
• Get a document or a permit?
• Get a child into school?
• Get a household service (like piped water,
  electricity or phone)?
• Get medicine or medical attention from a health
  worker
• Avoid a problem with the police (like passing a
  checkpoint or avoiding a fine or arrest)?
• And during the XXXX election, how often (if ever)
  did a candidate or someone from a political party
  offer you something, like food or a gift, in
  return for your vote?

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Pay a Bribe for Official Document / Permit
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Pay a Bribe to Avoid Problem With Police
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Partisan Politics
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Party Identification (2005-2006)
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Partisan Identification and Voter Turnout, (12
Afrobarometer Countries, 1999-2001)
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Trust In Ruling Parties (2005-2006)
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Trust In Opposition Parties (2005-2006)
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Rising Voter Identification With Ruling Political
Parties, 2000-2005
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Stable Voter Identification With Ruling Political
Parties, 2000-2005
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Declining Voter Identification With Ruling
Parties, 2000-2005
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Africans Views of Democracy
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Measuring Demand for Democracy

• Support for Democracy
• Which of these three statements is closest to
  your own opinion?
• A. Democracy is preferable to any other form of
  government
• B. In certain situations, a non-democratic
  government can be preferable
• C. To people like me, it doesnt matter what
  form of government we have.
• Rejection of Authoritarian Rule
• There are many ways to govern a country. Would
  you disapprove or approve of the following
  alternatives?
• The army comes in to govern the country (Military
  rule)
• Only one political party is allowed to stand for
  election and hold office (One-party rule)
• Elections and the parliament are abolished so
  that the president can decide everything (One-man
  rule)

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Support for Democracy
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Rejection of Authoritarian RegimesPresidential
Dictatorship
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Demand for Democracy
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Increasing Support for Democracy, 2000-2005
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Decreasing Support for Democracy, 2000-2005
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Increasing Demand Over Three Rounds(Reject 3
Forms of Authoritarianism)
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Constant Demand Over Three Rounds(Reject 3
Forms of Authoritarianism)
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Declining Demand Over Three Rounds(Reject 3
Forms of Authoritarianism)
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Measuring the Supply of Democracy

• Satisfaction with Democracy
• How satisfied are you with the way democracy
  works in ____ ?
• Extent of Democracy
• In your opinion, how much of a democracy is ____
  today?
• A full democracy
• A democracy, but with minor problems
• A democracy, but with major problems
• Not a democracy
• Freeness and Fairness of Elections
• On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and
  fairness of the last national election, held in
  _____?
• Completely free and fair
• Free and fair, with minor problems
• Free and fair, but with major problem
• Not free and fair at all

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Satisfaction With Democracy
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Extent of Democracy
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Free and Fair Elections
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Supply of Democracy
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Constant Supply, 2000-20005 (Country is
Democratic Satisfied With Democracy)
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Declining Supply, 2000-2005 (Country is
Democratic Satisfied With Democracy)
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Increasing Supply, 2000-2005 (Country is
Democratic Satisfied With Democracy)
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For More Informationincludingdownloadable
versions of questionnaires, data sets, results
and publicationsseewww.afrobarometer.org
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