This is a sample

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Ready for impact
Laurie Newton, Local Authority Project Officer,
UKCIP Sustainable Development 2006 1st March 2006
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The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

• helps organisations to assess how they might be
  affected by climate change, so that they can
  prepare for its impacts.
• Set up by UK Government in 1997
• funded by Defra
• based at University of Oxford
• Works through
• stakeholder-led research
• partnerships
• programmes, and
• capacity building
• Provides common tools and datasets. All freely
  available on request, or over the internet

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Adaptation is vital to sustainable development

• A sustainable response to climate change requires
  both mitigation of emissions and appropriate
  adaptations to unavoidable changes.
• Adaptation seeks to ensure that development is
  future-proofed and therefore sustainable
• Effective adaptation responses can create more
  time for mitigation actions to slow down climate
  change
• Adaptation is not just an environmental issue
  climate change provides threats and opportunities
  for most aspects of business, local government
  and communities

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Climate change is unavoidable
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Unavoidable climate change presents risk to
communities in two main ways

• Changes in annual and seasonal means over decadal
  time scales
• eg. temperature, precipitation
• Changes in the likelihood of extreme events
• eg. torrential rain, heat waves

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UKCIP02 climate change scenarios

• The main parameters used in reporting the data
  all referred to baseline data for 1961-1990
• regional variation 50 km square grid over UK
• three time periods 2020s, 2050s, 2080s
• four emissions scenarios L, ML, MH, H
• climate variables
• means, maxima, minima
• 4 seasons Annual
• expert judgements of levels of confidence
• UKCIPnext now in preparation

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Changes in annual average temperature in UK
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Changes in seasonal average precipitation in UK
Winter
Summer
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Recent extreme event the heat wave of 2003
Europe 30,000 deaths attributed to the heat
wave Forest fires and crop damage seriously
impacted economy Economic losses in excess of
7.5bn
England (3-14/8/03) Excess mortality All ages
2091(17) gt75 1781(23) Emergency hospital
admissions (gt75) 1490 (6)
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This type of summer could be normal by 2040s,
cool by 2080s
European summer temperatures
Source Peter Stott, Hadley Centre
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Summary of expected climate changes in the UK

• Annual / seasonal averages
• Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too)
• Milder, wetter winters
• Rising sea levels
• Extremes
• More very hot days
• More intense downpours of rain
• Shorter return periods for high water levels at
  coast
• Uncertain changes in storms possible increase
  in winter

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Some examples of potential impacts

• Land use and planning
• Increasing risks of flooding
• Increasing water scarcity
• Increasing urban heat island effects
• More demand for outdoor living space
• Waste management
• Increasing problems from odour, insects and other
  pests
• Changing conditions for landfill sites
• Changing health risks to staff from pathogens and
  vermin
• Biodiversity
• Habitats at risk due to changing temperatures and
  precipitation patterns

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UKCIP tools and approaches to local authorities

• Supporting regional climate change partnerships
• Developing tools for local authorities
• Working on the Councils Climate Action Pack (in
  support of the 2nd Nottingham Declaration on
  Climate Change)

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Second Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change

• 100 Councils have signed the First Nottingham
  Declaration on Climate Change since its launch in
  2000
• Second National Councils Conference on Climate
  Change was held December 2005 to launch new
  version of the Nottingham Declaration
• Target 200 campaign to sign up 200 councils by
  end of 2006
• A Councils Climate Action Pack due for release
  May/June 2006
• UKCIP contributing to the adaptation strand

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Councils Climate Action Pack
Mitigation strand
Monitor and review
Implement Action Plan
Prepare an Action Plan
Develop Strategic Objectives
Assess Current Situation
Getting Started
Adaptation strand

• Get corporate buy-in
• Agree approach
• Allocate initial resources
• Undertake initial training

• Prepare local climate profile
• Identify potential impacts
• Prioritise significant impacts

• Identify relevant policy context
• Identify adaptation options
• Undertake risk assessment of options
• Confirm agreed adaptation response

• Review adaptation responses in policy context
• Develop adaptation action plan

• Take forward actions
• Integrate with other strategies and plans
• Communicate actions to Council staff and wider
  community

• Evaluate progress and reasons for any lack of
  progress in certain areas
• Revise adaptation action plan

UKCIP Business case for adaptation
UKCIP Service sector guidelines
UKCIP Risk and costing guidelines
UKCIP Adaptation database
UKCIP Regional training programme
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www.ukcip.org.uk