Issues Surrounding The Separation of Quebec

1
Issues Surrounding The Separation of Quebec

• What Will Happen to R.O.C.?
• Labrador Border
• Allocation of Assets Liabilities e.g.,
  proportion of national debt valuation date of
  assets
• Partition of Quebec Itself - esp. aboriginal
  people
• Who Will Negotiate for Canada if PM is from
  Quebec?
• Free-trade - Quebec-Canada Quebec-USA
• Ill-will
• Once things start to unravel, theyll move very
  quickly in ways we cannot foresee. No one can
  predict the outcome. (Gordon Richie)

2
The Rise of a New Force in Quebec Action
Democratique du Quebec

• Elections of Realignment (e.g. 1936, 1970) a
  third party moves above 20 of votes
• Formation of the ADQ dissident Liberals in
  midst of Charlottetown negotiations in 1992
• Distribution of Voter Support in Quebec
• Elections Polls
• 1994 1998 2001 2002
• Parti Quebecois 44 44 34 25
• Liberals 42 45 40 30
• ADQ 7 12 18 40

3
Causes of theRise of the ADQ

• Leadership
• Scandal
• Strategic Impasse
• Desire for Political Stability
• Belief that The Current Model of Government in
  Quebec is Not Sustainable

4
What Would an ADQ Victory Mean to Canada?

• Quebec will be more involved in alliances with
  other provincial governments
• Fading of the BQ from the federal political scene
• Intergenerational Conflict - Leading cadre of
  ADQ is in early 30s. They want the baby boom
  generation to pay its fair share. - ADQ is
  strongest among age 18-28 year olds, but is 1st
  or 2nd in every age group.