What Causes Tenancy Failure and Can Choice Help? Analysing Tenancy Sustainment in British Social Rented Housing

1
What Causes Tenancy Failure and Can Choice Help?
Analysing Tenancy Sustainment in British Social
Rented Housing

• Hal Pawson, School of the Built Environment
• Heriot-Watt University
• and
• Moira Munro, Dept of Urban Studies, University of
  Glasgow

2
Presentation Structure

• Background
• Statistically explaining tenancy failure rates
• Tenancy failure ex-tenant perspectives
• Impact of choice-based lettings on tenancy
  sustainment
• Conclusions
• Presentation draws on
• Investigating Tenancy Sustainment in Glasgow
  (GHA)
• Monitoring the Longer-term impact of CBL
  (ODPM/CLG)

3
High rates of tenancy breakdown why worry?

• Efficiency considerations landlord reletting
  costs
• Contribution to homelessness social costs for
  individuals
• Unstable neighbourhoods

4
Defining tenancy failure

• Premature end of tenancy
• Disorderly end of tenancy
• Early terminationtenancy ended within 12 months

5
Hypothesized causes of tenancy failure

• Market failure
• Individual vulnerability
• Landlord failure

6
Tenancy failure rates by access queue

• Overall GHA tenancy failure rate 20
• Comparable with North of England LAs
• Failure rate modest for transfers but identical
  for homeless and waiting list
• Approx half of new tenancies terminated within 2
  years
• Decay rate appears steady over first 18 months
• Since GHA waiting list lets are double those to
  homeless the latter account for only 1/3 of
  tenancy failures

7
Lettings at high risk

• Two-way analysis suggests lets at greatest risk
  of tenancy failure
• Butneed to isolate effects of explanatory
  factors
• Are regeneration properties implicated only
  because disproportionately occupied by high risk
  group?

8
Factors influencing propensity for early tenancy
termination regression results (1)

• Being housed outwith core stock a significant
  underlying risk factor
• Deck access lets a higher risk than MSFs

9
Factors influencing propensity for early tenancy
termination regression results (2)

• Single adult status not significant as risk
  factor
• Family households less at risk
• Highest risk age group 22-28s (not lt21s)
• Waiting list applicants at slightly less risk
  than homeless
• Reflects disproportionate no. of homeless (a)
  with children, (b) housed in core stock

10
Tenancy failure causal factors implicated from
ex-tenant testimony

• Being allocated a home in an unwanted area
• Inability to secure adequate furniture and
  equipment
• Dissatisfaction with property condition
• Debt problems resulting from poverty and an
  inability to maximise income and/or manage money
• Social isolation
• Anti-social behaviour cited by at least half of
  ex-tenants

11
Measuring the impact of CBL on tenancy
sustainment accounting for intervening variables

• Need to allow for impact of background changes in
  tenancy sustainment
• Tightening housing market
• Growing deployment of tenancy sustainment
  interventions
• Tenancy failure rates generally falling by approx
  3 p.a.

12
Can choice help? - Impact of CBL on tenancy
sustainment

• Claimed prospects of improved tenancy sustainment
  a major justification for CBL
• Most direct measure of lets terminated within
  12 months
• General though not universal tendency for
  significant reductions in early termination
  rates after CBL launch
• Non-CBL LA early termination rates generally
  falling by about 3 p.a.
• Improved tenancy sustainment generally recorded
  for tenants across all ethnic backgrounds

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Conclusions

• Paper provides evidence to support all three
  hypotheses on tenancy failure causal factors
• Housing demand
• Individual vulnerability (to a limited extent)
• Social landlord management practices
• Paradoxical impact of CBL success in stabilising
  tenancies
• Need to acknowledge tenancy failure reflects
  assumptions about proper role of sector and
  aspirations of those moving into it
• Longer tenancies preferable for landlords but not
  necessarily for individuals