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Energy, GHG and Climate Change Scenarios: IEA Insights

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY. AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L'ENERGIE ... Price caps make short-term targets more palatable, long-term targets indicative only ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Energy, GHG and Climate Change Scenarios: IEA Insights


1
Energy, GHG and Climate Change Scenarios IEA
Insights
  • Cédric Philibert
  • Energy Efficiency and Environment Division
  • European Environment Agency Workshop
  • Copenhagen, 29 June 2004

2
Growing trend
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions, WEO, 2002
World emissions increase by 1.8 per year to
38 billion tonnes in 2030 70 above 2000
levels
3
CO2 Emissions per Capita
Source WEO 2002
4
Climate Stabilisation
Source IPCC TAR
5
Technology Innovation, Development and Diffusion
  • All options needed
  • Timing and lock-in matter
  • Technology policies help provide for long term
    non-carbon energy
  • Comprehensive tools (caps, taxes) promote short
    term results
  • and provide long-term price signals
  • International technology collaboration helpful,
    but cannot substitute to comprehensive agreements

6
Key energy technologies
  • End-use efficiency
  • Building sector
  • Industry
  • Transport
  • Fuel switching
  • Conversion efficiency
  • Non carbon energies nuclear, renewable, CCS
  • Excluding any of these options is likely to drive
    higher costs/higher concentrations

7
Nuclear energy
  • Currently 7,3 of world TPES
  • Concerns risks, waste, proliferation
  • Member countries have various policies
  • Costs may not be an issue if carbon is priced
  • Various new designs may
  • Reduce size and costs
  • Minimise waste and expand the resource base
  • Alleviate proliferation concerns

8
Carbon Capture and Storage
  • Pre-, post- and oxyfuel combustion technologies
  • Pre-combustion capture could be one way to
    provide a versatile fuel hydrogen
  • Plentiful geological storage capabilities
  • But current experiments not numerous enough
  • Ocean storage would be temporary only
  • Achieving stabilisation may require storing
    significant CO2 (100s of GT)
  • The question of permanence

9
Renewable
  • Biomass and waste about 11 TPES
  • Not always renewable, often unhealthy use
  • Hydro about 2.3 world TPES
  • But additional capabilities face social and
    environmental concerns
  • Others less than 1 world TPES
  • Rapid growth of wind energy
  • Issues of costs and intermittence
  • Space occupation may limit biomass
  • Potential 9,000 times current TPES
  • GHG increase the efficiency of Earth Atmosphere
    capturing solar energy
  • If solar energy creates the problem it must be
    able to solve it

10
An area issue?
Area needed to produce with solar power the same
yearly energy than the Assouan Dam (global
efficiency of 10)
Source Dennis Anderson, Imperial College, R.-U.
11
Solar power plants exist!
  • 354 MWe since 84-89 on Los Angeles grid
  • Contrating solar power plants cheaper than PV
  • Fossil fuel back-up or heat storage guarantees
    power
  • Projects in Spain, Italy, Mexico, India, Egypt,
    Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, Israel, the US
  • 70 millioninhab cities in suitable areas

12
GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels
Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from
biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel
13
Ethanol Cost Comparison, 2002 and Post 2010
2002
2002
Post2010
Post2010
14
Biofuels Potential In IEA Countries
  • In most countries, conventional biofuels
    (ethanol/grains, biodiesel/FAME) can probably
    provide 5 of motor gasoline/diesel fuel without
    major disruptions to other crop production,
    markets
  • 5 in US, EU will require 15-20 of cropland
  • Above 5 we could begin to see strong competition
    for crop use in many countries
  • Biodiesel is much more land-intensive than
    ethanol
  • Going to cellulosic feedstocks could increase
    potential by several-fold

15
Global Technical Potential for Transport Energy
Requirements to be Provided by Biofuels, 2050
16
Nearer Term A look at Ethanol from Sugar Cane in
2020
(Billion Litres)
Source Johnson, 2002
17
Biofuels in sum
  • Biofuels many types of impacts
  • Biofuels use growing rapidly
  • Conventional biofuels in IEA countries are
    expensive, modest GHG reductions
  • Sugar cane ethanol is a bargain
  • Advanced biofuels processes look promising
  • Global potential appears substantial
  • Development of trade in biofuels would benefit
    many countries

18
  • Maria R. Virdis
  • 9th Session of the Conference of the Parties.
  • 1-12 December. Milan, Italy

19
SD Vision a normative scenario with 3 targets to
2050
  • Energy security
  • Our supply vulnerability concerns mostly oil.
    Transport is the most dependent sector.
  • lt 40 of energy demand for transport satisfied
    by oil by 2050.
  • Climate mitigation and environmental
    sustainability
  • Target focuses on decarbonisation of energy
    supply and on transition to a non-fossil fuel
    energy base
  • 60 of world TPES from zero-carbon sources by
    2050
  • Access to energy
  • Depends on economic growth and income gap
    reduction.
  • Access to electricity to gt 95 of world
    population by 2050.
  • Purpose to help identify a policy path and a
    technology roadmap to get to the desirable future
    world.

20
Quantitative framework for 2050
  • Needed to appreciate magnitude of the targets and
    scale of the challenges. Existing scenarios
    considered
  • WEO 2002 (but horizon limited to 2030)
  • IPCC SRES scenarios of the A1 family (A1B and
    A1T).
  • A1T scenario (simulated by IIASA with MESSAGE)
    chosen as the initial basis for its
    characteristics.
  • That scenario was further modified to produce our
    SD Vision scenario, whose characteristics are
  • policy driven
  • lower GDP (-5with respect to A1T value in 2050)
  • lower energy demand (-15 w.r. to A1T value in
    2050)
  • increased share of zero carbon technologies
    (renewables, nuclear) and introduction of carbon
    storage.

21
The SD Vision scenario world total primary energy
46 of TPES from renewables nuclear by 2050
22
Comparing carbon emissions
26 of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels is
captured and stored by 2050
23
Energy in 2050 (SD Vision)
  • Energy intensity would fall by 53 over the
    period.
  • Gas would become the dominant fuel security of
    supply risks may surface in long term. Pipeline
    construction thrives.
  • Oil to satisfy about 38 of transport energy
    demand
  • Renewables a bigger share than coal and oil (35
    vs. 28).
  • 46 of non-carbon based energy sources in TPES
    implies
  • a 3-fold increase for biomass
  • a 13-fold increase for other renewables
  • a 14-fold increase for nuclear.
  • Carbon capture storage up to 2.6 GtC in 2050.

24
Share of Renewables in the Reference and
Alternative Policy Scenarios
Policies under consideration would increase the
share of renewables to 25 by 2030, compared to
17 in the RS
25
OECD CO2 Emissions in Alternative and Reference
Scenarios OECD
Emissions in the Alternative Scenario stabilise
towards the end of the projection period
26
OECD Investment in Alternative and Reference
Scenarios
Transmission and distribution investments are
much lower in Alternative Scenario, but
generation costs hardly fall
27
Investment to Ensure Universal Electricity
Access 2001-2030
More than 660 billion is needed to supply basic
electricity services to the worlds very poor
mainly in Africa and South Asia
28
Universal Electricity Access CO2 Emissions
Implications in 2030
Assuming no change in the fuel mix, universal
electricity access would increase global CO2
emissions by 1.4 in 2030
29
Carbon Sequestration Scenario 2001-2030
Capacity with CO2 capture
Additional for CO2 capture
Carbon-capture technologies can remove 3.4 GT of
CO2 in the OECD by 2030
30
BEYOND KYOTO What we have learned Cédric
Philibert
31
From theory and experience
  • Climate change is global, long-term and
    surrounded by (cost and benefit) uncertainties
  • Growing energy needs will not make it easy!
  • Price instruments would perform better
  • Benefits relate to concentrations, costs to
    emissions
  • But carbon taxes are unlikely to succeed
  • And fixed binding targets hard to swallow (by
    nature arbitrary)
  • Technology push useful, no silver bullet

32
The ultimate objective dilemma
  • Costs and benefits uncertain costs matter
  • Dangerous climate change hard to define
  • Inertia requires but constrains early action
  • Possible way out Aim at low concentration levels
    with achievement conditional on costs
  • From Hard laws, weak targets to Soft laws,
    strong targets but ensuring action
  • Ambition matters, not emission certainty

33
Suggestion 1/3 Keep emissions trading
  • Cost-effective
  • Environmentally effective
  • Allows (some) free allocation
  • Helps deal with vested interests
  • Allows the rich to pay for the poor
  • Mobilises private, not government funding

34
Suggestion 2/3 Make it global
  • Large, sector-wide, unilaterally-funded CDM
  • Non-binding targets for developing countries
  • Set targets close to baseline emissions
  • No threat for economic development
  • No need for tropical hot air up-front
  • Commitment period reserve and buy-back option to
    prevent selling false carbon money

35
Suggestion 3/3 Reduce cost uncertainty
  • Index targets on economic output
  • Intensity targets only a special case of
    indexation
  • Only reduce uncertainty from unabated emissions
    trend
  • and/or cap the costs (safety valve)
  • Sell supplementary permits at a fixed price
  • At international or domestic levels
  • Set the price in the upper range of expectations
  • A price cap is not a tax!
  • Single price cap not that difficult nor
    necessary
  • Use of the price cap money not a difficulty

36
Dont worry
  • Most likely, a more stringent target is achieved
    (thanks to lower expected abatement costs)
  • Price cap in use if higher-than-projected costs
  • ...a cost benefit analysis would have suggested
    higher emissions and concentration levels
  • Price cap with more ambitious targets performs
    en route the CBA impossible today
  • Price caps make short-term targets more
    palatable, long-term targets indicative only

37
be happy!
  • The EU (and other countries /stakeholders) with
    ambitious targets
  • The US (and other countries /stakeholders) with
    price caps
  • The developing countries with investment and
    technology inflows from emissions trading based
    on non-binding targets
  • All, with effective global climate change
    mitigation and response to energy needs

38
Thank you!
  • For more information
  • www.iea.org
  • cedric.philibert_at_iea.org
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