DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE

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DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND
FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE?
Djuro KUTLACA, PhD Science and Technology Policy
Research Centre of the Mihajlo Pupin
Institute 11000 Belgrade, Volgina 15,
Serbia Tel/Fax[phone] E-mail
dkutlaca_at_labtel.imp.bg.ac.yu , and University of
Belgrade Faculty of Security Studies 11000
Belgrade, Gospodara Vucica 50, Serbia
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DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND
FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE?

• Issues
• Basic rationale
• Statistical data from SEE countries
• (Personal experience regarding the) Difficulties
  to bring foresight aspects into policy making
  processes
• Difficulties of participation of researchers from
  SEE countries in Foresight-related projects of EU
  and other national and international funding
  agencies
• Actions needed.

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DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND
FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE?

• 1. Basic rationale
• Main changes in RD systems in South East
  European (SEE) countries during transition period
  is evaluated in literature as
• the Western Balkans, Romania and Bulgaria are
  characterized by national innovation systems
• that are undergoing radical institutional and
  structural changes,
• a research and technology infrastructure that is
  largely obsolete,
• a disproportionately large amount of basic
  research combined with poor financial
  remuneration,
• a large deficit of industrial demand for applied
  research combined with very low business
  expenditure on RD,
• an often relatively aged human potential in RD
  that is confronted with the negative effects of
  the internal and external brain drain,
• and suboptimal integration into European research
  and technology projects"
• GFF, 2006, Research and Development in South
  East Europe, Gesellschaft zur Förderung der
  Forschung (ed), Neuer Wissenschaftlicher Verlag
  GmbH, ISBN 3-7083-0377-6, Wien Graz 2006.

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DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND
FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE?

• 2. Statistical data from SEE countries
• Main ST indicators
• Patent activity,
• National Innovation Capacity .

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Resident Patent Applications
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Absorptive Capacity
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RD Capacities
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DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND
FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE?
3. (Personal experience regarding the)
Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into
policy making processes
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3. (Personal experience regarding the)
Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into
policy making processes

• Lack of time Transition period, although lasts
  number of years, even decades, is characterized
  by the rush, impatience, need that number of
  development plans and projects must be done in
  very short time frame.
• Lack of customers Weak linkages and non existing
  infrastructure and mechanisms for transfer and
  diffusion of technologies from RD to business
  sector, make task find a customer almost
  impossible to achieve.

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3. (Personal experience regarding the)
Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into
policy making processes

• Lack of demand-pull Most of the central planned
  economies are characterized with strong
  science-push system, where industry just has to
  come and take new technology from the shelf.

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3. (Personal experience regarding the)
Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into
policy making processes

• Lack of communication Business and academia are
  two separate worlds, and RD results hardly could
  find users.
• Lack of marketing knowledge RD system has
  inherent lack of marketing capabilities.
  Scientists are, usually, oriented to the world of
  science, not to economy.

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3. (Personal experience regarding the)
Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into
policy making processes

• Lack of management knowledge Like previous
  remark, management skills are another big puzzle
  for scientists.
• Lack of entrepreneurs People with clear idea how
  to develop one idea from research to market are
  very rear, especially in RD sector.

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3. (Personal experience regarding the)
Difficulties to bring foresight aspects into
policy making processes

• Lack of networks and clusters Post-socialist
  economies suffer of lack of linkages between
  different actors, and even more, suffer of lack
  of information who knows what, what is
  precondition for such integration.
• Lack of originality Rush for adoption rather
  than adaptation of best practice from developed
  market economies during transition period
  usually ends with non-efficient and non-workable
  solutions.

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DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND
FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE?
3a. Other factors specific to WBCs regarding the
difficulties to bring foresight aspects into
policy making processes
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3a. Other factors specific to WBCs regarding the
difficulties to bring foresight aspects into
policy making processes

• Knowledge Theoretical knowledge about foresight
  is very rear, marginalized and non-systematic.
• Experience Without knowledge about foresight
  there is no sense to speak about experience.
  Unfortunately, number of foreign experts,
  agencies and representatives, present in WBCs,
  never advice, suggest or introduce foresight
  practice in WBCs.

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3a. Other factors specific to WBCs regarding the
difficulties to bring foresight aspects into
policy making processes

• Capacity Foresight is neglected from educational
  and practical aspects.
• Political instability Most of the WBCs must be,
  as a difference from number of CEE countries,
  treated as countries with strong political
  instability, which shortened aspirations and
  efforts invested by elected political parties.

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3a. Other factors specific to WBCs regarding the
difficulties to bring foresight aspects into
policy making processes

• Weak economies Although the transition period
  lasts more than 15 years in CEE countries, WBCs
  suffered from wars and conflicts, causing rather
  bad situation in economies and infrastructure.
• Inappropriate infrastructure This factor
  includes not only lack of infrastructure and
  mechanisms for transfer and diffusion of
  technologies from RD to business sector, but
  non-functional, economically ineffective RD
  organizations and business enterprises also.

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DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND
FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE?
4. Difficulties for participation of researchers
from SEE countries in Foresight-related projects
of EU and other national and international
funding agencies
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4. Difficulties for participation of researchers
from SEE countries in Foresight-related projects
of EU and other national and international
funding agencies

• Participation of researchers from WBCs in EU FP6
  cheap RD outsourcing
• Participation of researchers from WBCs in EU FP7
  ?
• FP7 makes foresight again eligible issue !

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4. Difficulties for participation of researchers
from SEE countries in Foresight-related projects
of EU and other national and international
funding agencies

• National and international funding agencies,
  present in WBCs, are gradually moving from
  issues such as democratization, human rights,
  political and legal aspects, toward economic and
  other development issues. This could make room
  for foresight activities, if and only if experts
  and consultants employed by these agencies and
  present in WBCs will stand on long-term rather
  than short-term priorities and activities.

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4. Difficulties for participation of researchers
from SEE countries in Foresight-related projects
of EU and other national and international
funding agencies

• Present practice of creation of policy documents
  in different fields, prepared only by foreign
  experts, as request from donating foreign
  agencies, usually ends with documents based on
  wrong facts, missing actors, missvalued
  potentials and resources, i.e. ends as waste of
  time and valuable resources, and without
  desirable side-effects such as education and
  training of researchers and other domestic
  professionals who could become knowledgeable
  support for policy makers in WBCs!

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DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH AND
FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SEE?
5. Actions needed
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5. Actions needed

• Clearly defined foresight-related activities as
  priorities under FP7 related to WBCs
• Launching of series of educational and training
  courses for transfer of foresight knowledge and
  experience to human resources in WBCs.

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5. Actions needed

• Integration of researchers and other
  professionals from WBCs into existing foresight
  programs and projects in EU member countries
• Integration of researchers and other
  professionals from WBCs into development
  programs and projects, and other activities
  launched by foreign agencies and institutions in
  WBCs.