Psychology of Political Thought

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Psychology of Political Thought

• TS2S 405
• Fort Lewis College

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Conspiracy Theory

• Conspiracy 1 a to join in a secret agreement
  to do an unlawful or wrongful act or an act which
  becomes unlawful as a result of the secret
  agreement b SCHEME
• A conspiracy theory is a description of how one
  or more groups of people manipulate different
  aspects of the world. 2 a theory that group(s) of
  people manipulate the social/physical world
  outside of the awareness of the general
  population.
• Theory A proposed explanation of how the world
  works.

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A Brief Typology of Conspiracy Theories

• Anti Government JFK, Moon landing, CIA and
  Drugs, Bushes and SL, Clinton, Waco,
  fluoridation, microchips
• Anti Corporate/capitalism oil companies,
  alternative fuels, money in politics, war,
  Christian conspiracies, OKC, voting machines
• International New world order, UN, Bilderberg
  group
• Anti-Religious Anti-Mormons, Catholics, Jews,
  Masons, Moonies, etc.
• Satanic and secular humanism conspiracies eye on
  dollar, etc.
• Anti communist civil rights movement, John Birch
  Society, McCarthyism
• Racial genocide, white policy on drugs, Klan,
  Churchs fried chicken, Snapple, Al Sharptons
  office bombing, OJ, Tuskeegee
• Media conspiracies suppression of information by
  right or left
• Events 9-11, TWA 800, Korean Air 007, Ron
  Browns commerce plane crash, JFK
• Aliens and UFOs, ghosts/paranormal, Satan,
  Bermuda triangle
• Individuals The Bushes, Ken Lay, Bill Gates, the
  Rosenbergs
• http//www.art.man.ac.uk/english/staff/pk/research
  /Encyclopedia/front.html

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Good Paper Topic Characteristics

• Is related to political thought
• You can find resources both pro and con on the
  theory
• You can find at least 7 sources per side

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How do we come to know what we think we know?

• Epistemology The study of what we think we know
  and how we come to know it.
• Its study implies finding truth is tricky
  business.
• Neither do the ignorant love wisdom or desire to
  become wise for this is the grievous thing about
  ignorance, that those who are neither good nor
  beautiful nor sensible think they are good
  enough, and do not desire that which they do not
  think they are lacking.
• Plato, Symposium 203E-204A

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Methods of Knowing

• 1. Authority. We listen to the experts, family,
  friends, Internet, media, etc.. But how do they
  know?
• Problems people may not be true experts,
  authorities often disagree, etc.
• This is knowledge based on FAITH
• 2. Tradition. Thats the way its always
  worked/been, so it must be true.
• Authority of the past.
• May be prejudiced or simply reiterated falsehoods

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Methods of Knowing

• 3. Conventional Wisdom (media). All I know is
  what I read in the papers Will Rogers. and
  what other people are saying.
• But, advertising campaigns try to sway this.
  Debeers example.
• The media is not an unbiased presenter of info.
  It primarily entertains, focuses on negative,
  scandal, etc. Camera doesnt lie, but it doesnt
  tell the whole truth either.
• 4. Common Sense it seems plausible or just
  makes sense.
• Crude logic
• But common sense can often be wrong. Gamblers
  fallacy

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Methods of Knowing

• 5. Formal Logic. Knowledge from rational
  argument. But while adhering to logical rules is
  desirable,
• Logic only proceeds from uncertain assumptions.
• There is no single affirmative answer to most
  logical problems
• 6. Personal Experience. If I see it I believe it.
  
• But can you really trust your perceptions?
• Overgeneralization
• Selective observation
• Premature closure (selective exposure)
• Optical illusions

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Methods of Knowing

• 7. Science. The dominant methodology today. A
  process for finding truth, a system of explicit
  rules and procedures to guide the accumulation
  and summary of observations among a community of
  learners.
• Science also requires faith in the method and the
  scientists themselves.
• Since religion doesn't use this methodology, it's
  by definition not scientific rather religion
  turns to other authorities
• Investment. People believe in the things in which
  theyve invested resources. They invest a lot of
  time, money, other resources in groups, causes,
  etc. They resist change in the face of
  conflicting information.

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Science as a way of knowing

• Science Greek for "to know"
• Science is a set of procedures based on logical
  rules to arrive at the best (most probable)
  understanding of things we observe.
• It helps us examine explanations (theories)
  through systematic comparison of logical
  predictions (hypotheses) against observable
  evidence.
• Assumptions
• Conclusions must obey rules of formal logic.
• Object of study must be empirical, observable.
• Conclusions based on probabilistic reasoning.
• What is the probability that an answer is
  correct?
• Science is MUCH more rigorous and systematic that
  casual human thought.

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The Scientific Process

• Stages of the scientific research process. The
  Hypothetic-Deductive Method
• Hypothesis, theory, research design, define
  observations (measurement), collect, summarize
  data (analysis), generalize from data

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Theory

• Theories Proposed explanations of how the world
  works and how concepts are linked. Purpose is to
  explain reality
• Should explain the most with the least (fit
  parsimony).
• A theory is only as good as it is useful in
  explaining observations
• Compare stick figure to real person
• Theories are not necessarily true theyre
  simplifications
• Theories are not necessarily universal theyre
  context sensitive
• Without theory, social science would be a
  disconnected and meaningless pile of
  observations, data, and statistics. Theories help
  us know what to look for, what an observation
  might mean, and helps us make generalizations
  about how the world works.

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Hypotheses

• Hypothesis Specific predictions deduced from a
  theory. A observable manifestation of a theory.
  A sentence proposing a relationship between two
  specific variables.
• Ex Republicans approve more of George Bushs
  job.
• They are statements to be proved or disproved.
• Null hypothesis there is no relationship between
  the variables.
• Variables must be clearly defined and observable
  (measurable)

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Measurement

• Measurement Factors of interest must be defined,
  observed, and counted To do that, translate
  concepts into observable indicators of a concept
  (variables)
• Must define the key concepts (abstract
  categories)
• Concept class of related things
• Ex Animal can't touch one, only its instances
• Instances bears, dogs, cats, whales, horses.
• Members of class actually differ in many
  important ways.
• Ex Food, claws, habits, habitats, vocalization,
  etc.
• Concept is the common characteristic among them
• We impose the commonality--it exists in our minds
  as our way of making sense of the world.
• Concepts are 1) tentative, 2) based on social
  agreement, 3) useful only if they capture a
  useful slice of reality
• Concepts are the building blocks of
  understanding, language and science

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Variables

• Variables (Indicators)-- Variables are observable
  manifestations of a concept
• Must be observable
• Must capture the concept (valid)
• Must produce same results each time (reliable)

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Research Design

• A method for systematically gathering
  observations
• Survey of citizens
• Classical experiment
• Participant Observation
• Key How you gather observations affects the
  logical conclusions you can make from them.
• Ex random sampling.
• Then, go out and gather the data!

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Data Analysis

• Summarize your observations
• Can be done descriptively (qualitative) or
  through statistical data analysis (quantitative)
• Hypothesis test compare your observations to
  what the hypothesis predicted. Is the hypothesis
  correct given our observations?

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Critique and Replication

• Share your results with other scientists, get
  critiques
• Replicate study to see if you made a mistake or
  if theory is context dependent
• In short, consider why your answer may NOT be
  correct and have others help expose problems in
  your logic, observations, measurements,
  statistics, and conclusions.

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Summary

• The scientific method is like reading from you
  grandmas cookbook. First, do step 1, then step
  2, etc. Easy right?
• NO! Science, measured against reality, is
  primitive and childlike and yet it is the most
  precious thing we have. (Albert Einstein)
• Its precious, but not perfect!

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The Pitfalls of Science

• Science is very tricky in practice its an art
  form.
• There are many problems and errors that arise in
  the process.          
• Ambiguity of language and concepts.
• Example Equality (Overhead).
• Hard to live with Clinton
• No agreement on "is" or "sex"
• Not sex, just an "inappropriate relationship"
• Defining language is imprecise, yet politically
  powerful

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Problems

• Ambiguity of Language and Concepts
• Many of the things we care about are abstract
  concepts Happiness, freedom, terrorism, justice,
  equity
• (try to define terrorism)
• People want to make definitions in self-serving
  way.
• Ex Bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki were terrorist
  by almost any current definition, but Americans
  choose not to think of it that way.
• Often people and politicians want to avoid
  specifics in favor of vague language and abstract
  symbols.

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More Problems

• Data can be full of errors or manipulated.
• Measurement problems. How do you get accurate
  figures on poverty (what is it in the first
  place?), violent crime, economic well-being?
  (GDP?)

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More Problems

• Overgeneralization (generalize from too few
  cases, sampling error)
• No single best way to conduct scientific
  research, especially in social sciences.

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More Problems

• Inaccurate observations and psychological biases
• Optical Illusions
• (Well look at lots of these)
• Asch Experiments Finds that people will bow to
  social pressure to choose an answer they know to
  be wrong.

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More Problems

• Cognitive and psychological mistakes
• Selective Perception see what you want to see
• We can never divorce ourselves from our own
  viewpoint. Maybe none can see the world
  objectively
• Selective Observation pay attention to cases
  that fit your explanation, ignore those that
  dont
• Differential Perception. Different people see
  different things.
• (Hey, well focus on these, too)

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More Problems

• There are no social laws, only useful
  generalizations.
• Recursive behavior. Our studies often change
  attitudes and behavior. So what are we
  measuring/observing?
• Illogical reasoning, bad methodology
• Doby Gillis (on reserve)

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Even Deeper Problems

• Inability to prove something true
• Falsification (Popper) Cannot prove things are
  true because there are always other explanations,
  or anomalies around the corner (David Hume also).
  We can only show that something is NOT TRUE (but
  not perfectly).
• Experiment
• Can never prove anything--haven't discovered
  truth as much as rejected obvious falsehoods.

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Even Deeper Problems

• Confusing Correlation and Causation
• Correlation covariation (co-occurrence of
  change on two variables). This tells us nothing
  about cause (why the two variables changed)
• Causation Change in A change in B
• Or, Change in A
• Or, Change in A ? change in B
• Or, Change in A unrelated to change in B
• Or, Change in A and Change in B both caused by a
  change in C
• Observing a correlation does not tell us anything
  about causation.

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Demonstrating Cause

• 4 requirements to logically infer a causal
  relationship
• Covariation--statistical association if A
  changes, B must also change. This is necessary,
  but not sufficient.
• Not enough alone to show cause. Why?
• 5 Types of causal relationships w/i a correlation
• Time order--IV must come before DV
• big problem in surveys.
• Abuse must come before violent behavior
• Nonspurious--no third factor can explain the
  covariation
• Ice cream and violent crime
• Theory--logical explanation of the relationship

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Even Deeper Problems

• Can Humans really do science objectively?
• Thomas Kuhn Structure of Scientific Revolutions
• Paradigm--widely accepted explanations, or
  theories protected by those who benefit from its
  dominance
• Normal science--routine verification of a theory
• Scientists are prisoners of dominant paradigm
• Anomalies build up--cases that don't fit the
  theory
• Revolutionary science--abrupt development of new
  theory to help explain anomalies, resistance by
  status quo
• Implication Science is as much a social and
  political process as a rational one. It's a group
  struggle.

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Even Deeper Problems

• Philosophical debate Can we know anything at all
  if we are not unbiased observers of the world?
• Premodernism life is at it appears dont
  question own point of view. What you see is
  reality
• Modernism Philosophy of the Enlightenment. Truth
  is knowable through rationality and science, but
  hard to discover due to human biases. Hence,
  group learning is key in a scientific community.
• Most scientists are here!
• Postmodernism no objective truth, only varying
  ways of viewing the world through different
  cultural lenses. Modernists wrongly impose their
  (European) version of truth.

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So, what of science?

• Its not perfect, but its favored because at
  least its a process of self-questing and
  self-doubt. Its skeptical.
• It includes mechanisms for self-correction (peer
  review)
• Procedures help insure that logic is not abused.
• Once again, Einstein Science, measured against
  reality, is primitive and childlike and yet it
  is the most precious thing we have.

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Skepticism

• What is skepticism? One who questions the
  validity of a particular claim by calling for
  evidence to prove or disprove it.
• How does this relate to science? Science is
  inherently skeptical, even of its own findings.
• The good scientist always says their knowledge is
  subject to revision pending further evidence.
  Ive never written anything that was finished.
  (Hugh Nibley)
• The flim-flam artist claims they know things for
  sure and theyve proven it.
• What is credulity? Readiness or willingness to
  believe especially on slight or uncertain
  evidence.

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Science vs. Pseudoscience

• What is pseudoscience? (Shermer)
• Claims that appear scientific and are couched in
  scientific language, but lack supporting evidence
  and logical plausibility.
• How is pseudoscience different from science?
• Science is a process of continually improving and
  refining our knowledge of the world, based on new
  observations and interpretations. Bad
  explanations can be falsified.
• Pseudoscientists, however, do not try to correct
  error or change their point of view, they
  perpetuate their errors and views.

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Thinking Gone Awry

• Logical fallacies (Shermer Ch. 3) and PowerPoint
  Slides.
• See also
• See the PowerPoint on my web page.

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Expected Utility Theories

• A Normative (how it should be) theory of decision
  making.
• Von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947)
• Expected value cost/benefit x probability
• Variations of EUT theories add randomness and
  subjective probabilities to make them more real

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Some Key Assumption of EUT

• Ordering of Alternatives Decision maker must be
  able to rank order all alternatives.
• Cancellation if two alternatives have the same
  probability or value, that factor should be
  ignored in the decision.
• Transitivity If you prefer A to B and B to C,
  you must also logically prefer A to C.
• Continuity Should prefer gambles if they have
  higher expected values than sure bets.
• Invariance Decision should not be affected by
  the way alternatives are presented (framed)
• Full information and consideration of all
  alternatives

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A Rational Decision

• Define the problem
• Specify all alternatives
• Get full information
• Analyze each alternative according to your
  weighted criteria
• Choose the option with the greatest expected
  utility
• Apply to buying a car

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How Rational Are We?

• An Experiment

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Paradoxes in Rationality

• Allais Paradox violates Cancellation if two
  outcomes have the same probability or value, that
  factor should be ignored in the decision.
• How did you answer on 28a on the survey?
• Ellsbergs Paradox
• Because the additional feature is worth the same
  amount in each alternative, it should not lead to
  different preferences. It should be ignored.

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Violating Intransitivity

• The committee problem (Figure 8.5)
• Also known as the Condorcet paradox
• Order of comparison determines winner.
• This is why we should NOT hold elections in
  successive pairwise comparisons.
• Sometimes, there is not single intransitive
  preference.

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Preference Reversals

• When people are asked to choose between two bets,
  they prefer the ones with the highest probability
  of winning, but when they are asked to set a
  price for how valuable the bets is, they prefer
  the ones with the highest potential payoffs.
• Therefore, peoples preferences reverse based
  upon whether they look at the probability of
  winning or the potential payoff. Two
  preferences for the same options.
• This shouldnt happen if principles of
  rationality are followed!

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Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making

• Scott Plous examines how people make judgments
  and decisions in the real world.

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Behavioral Decision Theory

• BDT is a revision of rationality as defined in
  classical economics
• Claims to better describe how people reason,
  think, and decide.
• Finds people systematically violate all of the
  assumptions of rationality (and by extension,
  classical economics)
• Herbert Simon People are rational only to the
  extent that they dont do things that harm their
  utility, but other than that, the model fails.
• But we must also ask ourselves throughout To
  what degree are these effects hothouse flowers?

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Brain as a Belief Engine

• The Brain is a belief machine, always trying to
  make sense of the world, to connect the dots
• Learning Unit We are quick to see correlations
  while forgetting non-correlating pairs
• Critical Thinking Unit We can be critical using
  tools weve learned, but only when we dont like
  the argument. (Ex Alcohol studies, Doby Gillis)
• We turn this one on and off to suit our needs
• Yearning Unit We seek answers, certainty, want
  to reduce anxiety

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Brain as a Belief Engine

• Input Unit The brain actively constructs meaning
  from sensory stimuli using preexisting thought
  patterns.
• Emotional Response Unit Events with strong
  emotional stimuli are more memorable and
  believable to us, but could still be false
• Memory Unit our memories are constructed and
  fallible, not just recalled
• Feedback Unit the processing of incoming
  information reinforces or weakens our beliefs
  (weakens them only rarely due to defense
  mechanisms)

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Selective Perception

• What we expect to see or see what we want to see
  what we strongly influences perceptions.
• Categorization We can only assimilate
  information into preexisting categories. Ex in,
  sa
• In fact, we cant NOT use these categories. Ex
  Written Language
• It is no stretch to say this is one of the most
  powerful psychological effects. It affects almost
  all others.

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In and Sa
49

Read this.

• Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy,
  it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a
  wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the
  frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The
  rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed
  it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn
  mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but
  the wrod as a wlohe.
• Are you really reading the words as they are, or
  seeing what you expect to see?

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Selective Perception

• Reader survey 33 Did you get 11 Fs?
• Or did your brain presume it knew what was on the
  page and ignore some it?
• Dartmouth v. Princeton People systematically
  think the refs are against them and theyre
  getting all the bad calls
• Hostile Media Effect Both Arabs and Israelis
  perceive media bias against their groups. Same
  for liberals and conservatives in US.

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What examples can you think of in the real world?

• Ideology x Walmart
• Sexual harassment w/ Clinton vs. Thomas
• 9/11 Blessing from God or act of evil?
• Katrina Act of nature or act of God?
• Patriot Act and/or torture Necessary evil or
  government gone too far?

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Selective Exposure

• Selective perception is enhanced by selective
  exposure (attention) to information
• Most people seek out information that supports
  their preconceived way of viewing the world.
• Why would a conservative want the dissonance of
  watching Democracy Now? Why would liberals watch
  Fox News or 700 Club?
• PS Watching to mock doesnt count because youre
  not open-mindedly considering the information.
• Result the illusion that you are informed and
  that the evidence fits your point of view.

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Another Example

• As reported on the front page of last Thursday's
  New York Times, the secretary of defense has
  formed his own "four- to five-man intelligence
  team" to sift through raw data coming out of Iraq
  in search of evidence linking Saddam Hussein to
  al-Qaida terrorists.
• Rumsfeld has publicly continued to push this link
  as a primeor at least the most easily
  sellablerationale for going to war with Iraq,
  even after the CIA and the Pentagon's own Defense
  Intelligence Agency have dismissed the connection
  as tenuous at best. But Rumsfeld contends that
  the spy bureaucracies may have missed something.
  As his top team member, Deputy Secretary of
  Defense Paul D. Wolfowitz, put it to the Times,
  there is "a phenomenon in intelligence work that
  people who are pursuing a certain hypothesis will
  see certain facts that others won't, and not see
  other facts that others will." Since Wolfowitz is
  one of Washington's most forceful advocates of a
  second Gulf War, we can safely predict that he
  will find the facts he needs to make his case.
• Source Slate.com 10/29/02

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Cognitive Dissonance

• People want to reduce, avoid, or ignore cognitive
  inconsistencies, so they dismiss information that
  conflicts with their chosen view in order to
  preserve it.
• Examples Jewish Tailor, Festinger and Carlsmith
  (1959)
• Application changes in behavior can lead you to
  change your attitude and vice versa.
• Ex Can oppose sex outside of marriage, until you
  do it. Then, you either reject the principle to
  justify the action or vice versa.
• Ex Pre-commitment get people to give token
  contributions to political campaigns so theyll
  be sure to not change their minds later.
• Part of the job of a liberal arts education is to
  make you more comfortable with dissonance.

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Memory

• We are NOT unbiased video recorders. Most memory
  degrades and existing memories change or are
  adapted (sometimes due to cognitive dissonance)
• Doonesbury cartoon (overhead)
• Ex Eyewitnesses notoriously unreliable.
• How did you do on Q 34 of the reader survey?
• Even how a question is asked about the past
  changes memory.
• Smashed vs. hit. People made up seeing broken
  glass.

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Memory

• People remember a general scenario or picture,
  not details.
• Stop and remember a pleasurable moment or scene
  in your life. Were you in it? Did you really look
  at yourself during the event, or are you
  reconstructing the memory?
• Memory is re-constructed rather than merely
  recalled
• Inferences fill in missing mental detail.
• Memory must be forced into preexisting
  categories.
• Memory is easily created in children, and even
  adults (abuse).
• What examples can you think of? (or did you
  forget?)

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Hindsight Bias

• Hindsight bias I knew it all along
• We overestimate what we knew in the past because
  we integrate subsequent information. See
  Fischhoff and Beyth (1975)
• Have you ever watched Jeopardy with someone, and
  after the answer is given that person says "I
  knew that one" or "That was an easy one"?
• This may be why people overestimate whether they
  voted for winning president or not, or whether
  their candidate will win
• Ex Pre gulf war people thought it another
  Vietnam. Afterward, confidently declared they
  knew it would be an easy win.
• Ex Iraq people thought it a relatively easy
  win, underestimated the quagmire.

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Hindsight Bias

• In reality, we probably didnt know it before
  hand, and a decision that went bad doesnt
  necessarily a bad decision. It may still have
  been the best one, just without the benefit of
  hindsight.
• Implication We can be overly critical of people
  whose decisions went wrong and overly
  praiseworthy of people who made risky decisions
  that turned out well.
• Even explaining this bias to people and telling
  them not to do it doesnt eliminate it (Fischhoff
  1977).
• What examples can you think of?

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More Examples

• medical context. A Dr.s second opinion does not
  differ completely from another Dr.s opinion if
  he/she is aware of the first opinion. This seems
  to be of serious consequence if one considers
  that a second opinion is only required when
  serious illnesses have been diagnosed.
• legal context, hindsight bias was found to occur
  when a jury makes a final decision in court. In
  the course of a trial, the judge is empowered to
  order the jury to ignore certain testimonials, by
  disallowing them. It is impossible to ignore such
  information.
• workplace context. A supervisor may not be able
  to make an undistorted judgment on his employees
  decision-making if he/she got information about
  some results of their performance. This is a
  special problem in the case of poor outcomes
  because a poor outcome could happen even if they
  acted correctly on the information they were
  given at the time.
• Source http//mailhost.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/glo
  ssary/hindimp2.htm

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Context Dependence

• Contrast Effects and Optical Illusions
• Optical Illusions.ppt
• Straight lines bend, and shapes appear larger
  or smaller depending on the context in which they
  occur.
• Nothing is big, small, hot, cold, smart, dumb,
  good, bad, etc. without something to compare it
  to. What is the reference point?
• Application Real estate
• What other examples can you think of?

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Context Dependence

• Primacy Effect
• Asch (1946) found that characteristics appearing
  early in a list disproportionately affected
  evaluation.
• Did you rate emotional as high on Q. 3?
• Application First impressions are key.
• Other examples?

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Context Dependence

• Recency Effect Instances where information that
  comes last is most influential when its best
  remembered and rises to the top of the mind.
• Primacy effect is stronger when pro and con info
  is presented at the same time.
• Recency effect is stronger when pro and con info
  is separated in time. More recent info dominates.

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Context Dependence

• Halo Effect Evaluations on multiple unrelated
  characteristics are highly correlated.
• Ex Beauty Halo an attractive person is also
  rated highly in intelligence, personality,
  friendliness, etc.
• Did you fall prey in Q. 4?
• Other examples First paper read when I grade,
  etc.
• What other examples can you think of?

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Plasticity of Opinions

• Public Opinion polling is widely used by
  politicians, media, researchers. How do we know
  what the public thinks? How well do we know it?
• Do people have stable opinions? Can we trust
  public expressions of opinion as important in a
  democracy?

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Plasticity of Opinions

• A sampling of public opinion polling problems.
• Question order effects presidential approval
  drops if you put it later in the survey rather
  than first.
• Response order effects Recency effect. Choose
  last response in a list.
• Pseudo opinions
• Metallic Metals Act
• Mistakes and misunderstandings
• Israel an Arab country
• Is candidate x a socialist?
• all the other candidates seem quite social as
  well.
• Womens Suffrage http//ebaumsworld.com/videos/suf
  frage.html

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Plasticity of Opinions

• Inconsistent attitudes
• Hypothetical attitudes dont predict specific
  applications.
• People might say they are tolerant, but then
  launch into a list of things or groups they would
  ban from public schools or libraries.
• Abstract opinions do not equal behavior
• Darley and Batson (1973) Good Samaritan

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Question Wording

• Slight changes in question wording alter
  responses.
• Whats your favorite example from Plous?
• Mine Allow vs. forbid antidemocratic speeches
• People use response alternatives as a frame of
  reference for reasoning about the Q.

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Framing

• Logically equivalent options that are stated
  differently produce different expressed
  preferences.
• Item 25, 26 on survey
• Lives saved v. lives lost in Asian Flu Scare
• People are risk seeking in the domain of losses
• People are risk averse in the domain of gains
• Schelling example Tax deductions for families
  with children or tax increases for the childless.
  The policy is the same, but its description
  produces very different political considerations.
• Kahneman and Tversky studies
• The effect even exists among trained experts,
  like doctors, who deal with probability.

70
Framing Examples

• A relaxed application of framing is when a
  speaker raises one subset of considerations to
  attention.
• Hows the economy doing at 1 GDP growth?
• Worse than historical performance (Clinton frame)
• Better than world performance (Bush 41 frame)
• Tax increases versus reversing tax cuts
• Application Expectations management. Bill
  Clinton as the comeback kid.
• Application Debates have little effect people
  just root for the home team (selective
  perception)! But post-debate spin can have an
  influence. Ford Gaffe 1976.
• Note Framing effects have been shown to be
  suppressed by partisan labels and sources that
  lack credibility.

71
Words Invoke Frames

• Often individual words invoke different frames
• Bureaucrat (neg) vs public servant (pos)
• Terrorist vs Freedom Fighter, Martyr for the
  people, or defense force.
• What examples can you think of?
• Remember, biasing language was even used as a
  logical fallacy.
• Most of politics is an ongoing war of frames.
• Estate Tax versus Death Tax
• http//www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/pers
  uaders/view/
• http//video.pbs.org8080/ramgen/wgbh/pages/frontl
  ine/2303/real/ch5_hi.rm

72
Examples

• Colorado Blue Book
• What is a budget cut/tax increase?
• Private/Personal Social Security Accounts
• Was Iraq a new war started by us, or a conclusion
  of an old war started in 1991?

73
Framing Examples

• TV news is mostly episodic focus on interesting
  cases, not general patterns.
• News coverage of crime, terrorism, poverty tend
  to be episodic.
• lack of focus on historical, economic, social
  antecedents to problems
• Tends to focus instead on personal failures.
  conservative policy
• Thematic stories that give in depth
  interpretive analysis.
• Unemployment covered thematically, but most
  issues are not.
• Iyengar . Affects attributions of political
  responsibility for events. Tend not to hold
  politicians accountable if episodic. But Thematic
  coverage tends to place blame on government or
  society as a whole.
• Source Shanto Iyengar Is Anyone Responsible?
  How Television Frames Political Issues.

74
Priming

• While Framing effects are caused by differential
  content of communication, priming effects are
  caused by different quantities of information
• Considerations at the top of the head affect
  recall and information processing.
• Sand, waves, sea, moon, palm, fish, blue
• Asking survey questions about personal finances
  induces pocketbook-voting responses.
• Application Agenda setting. Watching news
  stories about particular issues (terrorism) makes
  that issue rise in saliency (listed as most
  important). Iyengar and Kinder (1986)
• Political ads try to affect what info you
  remember and consider in the voting booth.

75
Psychological Accounting

• People reason differently and make different
  choices (even for equivalent outcomes) based on
  how they think of the loss or gain.
• Ratio Difference Principle People want to save
  5 off a 20 purchase, but dont worry much about
  saving 5 if theyre buying a car.
• Hence, car/home salespeople can make hundreds or
  thousands off you because the loss seems small in
  context.
• Examples?

76
Other Descriptive Models of Decision Making

• Satisficing
• Prospect Theory
• Certainty Effects
• Pseudocertainty
• Regret Theory
• Multiattribute choice
• Noncompensatory strategies
• Most Important Dimension

77
Satisficing

• Satisficing (Herbert Simon) People choose the
  option that satisfies their most important needs,
  even if it is not ideal. People dont optimize.
• Optimization impossible because info is often
  missing, not all alternatives are explored,
  outcomes are uncertain, time and cognitive
  abilities are limited, etc.
• Not a full model, rather a description of
  behavior in organizations.

78
Prospect Theory

• Developed by Kahneman and Tversky
• Finds losses are accounted more heavily than
  gains.
• Critical in politics because people respond to
  negative impacts and externalities more than
  positive ones.
• Much easier to organize people and money around a
  political loss than an equivalent gain.

79
Prospect Theory

• Key Implications
• People are risk averse in the domain of gains,
  risk seeking in the domain of losses.
• The key is the reference point, against which
  the comparison is made
• Leads to framing effects
• Leads to an endowment effect where people value
  what they have more than the value they would
  place on it if they did not own it.
• The garage sale problem.
• Implication killing existing programs very
  difficult.
• Predicts a certainty effect People prefer a
  reduction in risk near zero to a greater one
  elsewhere. People would rather eliminate risk
  than reduce it.
• People will pay more to remove the only bullet is
  a gun in a game of Russian Roulette to removing 1
  of 4, even though the decreased risk is the same
  in each case.
• Application 3 strikes and youre out, zero
  tolerance, etc.

80
Prospect Theory

• Application candidates will take political
  risks, run more negative political ads, risk a
  backlash if they are about to lose.
• People will fight more for programs they may
  lose, than those they would like to implement.
• Voters throw the incumbents out when things look
  bad.

81
Activity

• You are a campaign consultant. How can you
  exploit some of the logical fallacies or
  psychological biases discussed so far to further
  your cause to invade Iran? Your group should
  define 5 specific fallacies or biases and discuss
  how your campaign ads, news conferences, debate
  moments, etc. could try to play to these biases.
• Choose to represent either pro or anti war
  positions.
• Try not to make them absurd

82
Activity

• Choose a speech from a prominent politician, a
  party platform, and media story, or other
  communication of interest and critique it for
  lack of evidence, logical fallacies, or
  psychological biases.

83
Heuristics and Biases

• Heuristics decision rules of thumb
• Biases systematic tendencies toward a particular
  outcome in peoples thought processes.
• Pioneered by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in
  multiple experiments
• Provides a description of how people make
  judgments and decisions under uncertainty.
• Why do we care about probability calculations?
  Arent they just academic?

84
When do we use probability?

• Most political questions involve probability
  judgments
• What are your chances of being a victim of crime?
• How likely are you to contract an STD?
• How often does discrimination occur? How likely
  is x to happen?
• How risky is smoking?
• How long before another terrorist attack happens?
• Are Americans pro-war?
• What are people on welfare, politicians,
  bureaucrats like?
• What are the chances we will invade Iran?

85
Representativeness Heuristic

• People often judge probabilities by the degree
  to which A is representative of B, that by the
  degree to which A resembles B. (TK 1974)
• Item 1 from reader survey.
• Likelihood of Linda being a bank teller and
  feminist is lower than just being a bank teller.
• Shows people commit the conjunction fallacy
  where they judge a subset of outcomes to be
  greater than than the full set because the subset
  sounds plausible and representative of someone
  they might meet because it is more detailed and
  descriptive.

86
Neglect of Base Rates

• A base rate is the relative frequency
  (probability) of occurrence seen over time.
• Representativeness heuristics often arises
  because people ignore this information.
• Ex 2 5 from my survey

87
Misjudging Sample Size

• People make all sorts of mistakes in
  calculating probabilities. Misunderstanding
  inferences we can make from sample size is one of
  them.
• Ex problem 6 my survey.

88
Regression to the Mean

• Unusually high or low scores tend to be followed
  by scores closer to the mean.
• Sports Illustrated Jinx. Athletes perform worse
  after being highlighted in Sports Illustrated.
  But their performance was highlighted because it
  was atypically good (or bad). Over time, their
  performance will settle back down toward their
  mean.
• Postwar slumps in presidential approval ratings.

89
Mistakes to Avoid

• Dont be misled by detailed scenarios. The more
  detailed they are, the less likely they are to
  occur.
• Pay attention to base rates, particularly when an
  event is very rare or very common
• Remember chance is not self-correcting
• Dont misinterpret regression to the mean

90
Availability Heuristic

• People assess the frequency of a class or
  probability of an event by the ease with which
  instances or occurrences can be brought to mind.
• Some events will be more available for
  consideration because they are recent, easier to
  think about, vivid, emotional, plausible
• Ex 7, 8 on reader survey, 1, 3, 4 on mine

91
Availability

• Imaginability
• Carroll (1978) Found that those who were asked
  to imagine Jimmy Carter winning were more likely
  to predict a Carter win, likewise for Ford.
• So, if an outcome seems plausible and is easily
  imagined, it seems more probable.
• I heard the military is using a new plane that
  can go 4x the speed of sound. I have no idea if
  its true, but it sounds plausible, so Ill
  believe it.
• The Bush Administration is going to reinstate
  the Draft.
• Israeli Soldier

92
Availability

• Vividness
• The more vivid or emotional an event is, the more
  likely we think it is, because it is more
  available in memory.
• People found an unrepresentative verbal
  presentation of student evaluations of a course
  more useful in deciding whether to take a course
  than statistical information on all students
  evaluations!
• Implications politicians will be driven by
  vivid, but less probable events than systematic
  analyses show and can influence jury outcomes and
  advertising effectiveness.
• Welfare queen, lazy or inept bureaucrat, 600
  dollar hammer.
• Implication media pictures may are more
  impactful than talking head discussions by
  academics. (CNN effect)
• Implication Our experiments show (so far)
  negative ads are more memorable. So do people
  overestimate the occurrence of negative
  advertising? (According to our research, yes).

93
Probability and Risk

• People dont use Bayes Theorem to estimate
  probability. So, there are many statistical
  mistakes made.
• P(BA) P(AB) P(B) / P(A)
• Do you seriously use this?  
• Also, positive outcomes are judged more likely
  than negative ones (overly optimistic)
• Rosenhan and Messick (1966) People predicted
  smiling faces more, in all experimental
  conditions
• Most people think theyll be successful, but not
  die of cancer or in a car accident.
• How did you answer Q 5 a-d on the reader survey?

94
Common Probability Mistakes

• People overestimate the probability of
  conjunctive events (A and B both occur)
• Example Space shuttle O ring failure.
• 6 O rings w/ 97.7 chance of success each.
• .9776.87 chance of success 13 chance of
  failure.
• People underestimate the probability of
  disjunctive events (A or B occurs)
• When there are many possible low probabilities
  events, people overestimate the probability at
  least one will occur.
• Conservatism People are slow to revise their
  estimates in response to new info.

95
Risk

• People often perceive risks very differently than
  statisticians.
• People fear nuclear power most, statisticians
  tell us its less risky than riding a bicycle.
• What is a risk? Skiing? Swimming? Genetically
  modified foods? Alcohol? Sex?
• Dread risks those beyond peoples control that
  have great consequences, like nuclear power.
• Voluntary risks Those people dont fear (due to
  underestimation of risk?) or risk knowingly
• Perceived risks vary by culture.

96
Risk and Selective Perception

• After SAC false Russian Missile Attack and 3 Mile
  Island, people didnt change their assessments of
  risk, or their preferences. They interpreted the
  info to confirm their prior expectations.
• London/Madrid bombings?

97
Anchoring and Adjustment

• People are biased by irrelevant information in
  estimating probabilities and proportions.
• Random Actual higher/lower? Exact
  Af in UN
• 64 lower 45
• 10 higher 25
• Random numbers impact our numerical evaluations
• Application Salespeople throw out very high
  numbers and appear willing to negotiate.
• Once estimates are anchored, people do not adjust
  sufficiently
• Finding are robust and apply in real estate and
  other areas.

98
Anchoring and Adjustment

• Example estimate the thickness of a piece of
  paper folded on itself 100 times.
• Most people say no more than a few yards or
  meters.
• Correct answer 800 trillion times the distance
  between the earth and the sun. You were swayed by
  the small thickness of paper.
• Estimate the product of 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1?
• Mean Estimate 2250
• (Correct number is 40320)
• Estimate 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8?
• Mean Estimate 512

99
Anchoring and Adjustment

• Reader Survey item 13
• Only 23 people needed to have a 50 probability
  of 2 people having the same birthday on some day.
• But 254 needed to have a 50 probability of the
  same birthday on a particular day
• Implication Unspecified coincidences happen a
  lot by random chance!
• (Many conspiracy theories rely on unspecified
  coincidences which the theorist falsely deems
  unlikely, and therefore in need of an
  alternative explanation.)

100
Perceptions of Likelihood

• What are the chances? Given the preceding
  chapters, we dont have a clue.
• We often assume low probability events cannot
  occur by chance, so we must have a different,
  often supernatural or conspiratorial explanation.

101
Common Political Heuristics

• Party Identification
• Ideology (Metallic Metals Act?)
• Endorsements
• Viability/support (polls)
• Candidate Appearance
• Name Recognition
• (I prefer you try factcheck.org or other good
  source instead)

102
Which one is Julius Ervings Shooting sequence?
103
Patterns in Randomness

• People see patterns in purely random events.
• Gilovich et al (1985) demonstrated that streak
  shooting in basketball was an illusion (the
  probability of hitting a basket did not increase
  the probability of hitting the next one. In fact,
  it decreased!).
• See item 38 on survey

104
The Myth of the Hot Hand

• Data in table 2.1 contradict that notion that
  hitting one shot (x), increases the probability
  of the hitting the next.
• This is also true of free throws (eliminating
  other variables as explanations)
• Players were unable to predict their shot in
  advance
• Gilovich believes people misperceive streaks
  where there are none because they have a faulty
  impression of what randomness looks like.
• Clustering Illusion OXXXOXXXOXXOOOXOOXXOO is
  random, not streak shooting. Buttressed by
  representativeness heuristic and small sample
  sizes.
• Prediction Those closest to basketball are most
  likely to make the mistake!
• Ex People even see genetic similarities between
  parents and adopted children!

105

• Implication we may think we see patterns in
  random police stops, hiring and firing, sporting
  event outcomes, stock trends, music played
  backwards, etc.
• People also claim to see things in clouds, stars,
  tree leaves, paint splotches, etc. Are they
  really there, or are we constructing them?
  (selective perception)
• http//www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/
  mars_face_010525-1.html
• http//www.enterprisemission.com/

106
Misperception of Random Data

• Our belief engines predispose us to see order,
  patterns, and meaning in the world.
• Randomness, chaos and meaninglessness are
  unacceptable to most people.
• But our perceptions are often figments of our
  imagination
• Shermers examples faces and canals on photos of
  mars, Satanic messages in music, finding
  religious figures in shadows, on toast, on paint
  splotches and wood grains, hot streaks in sports
  and gambling.
• Finding patterns is no doubt comforting to us.
• Finding patterns is also the substance of
  science. The difference is that science utilizes
  procedures that minimize the probability of
  clearly faulty conclusions.

107
Correlation, Causation, Control

• Illusory Correlation We often perceive
  correlations where there are none.
• See 14 on reader survey. No correlation is
  present.
• Bacon and Eggs?
• Invisible Correlations
• Jennings et al (1982) We often miss correlations
  
• Correlation does not equal causation!
• Ice cream and violent crime example
• Causation does not require correlation!
• Intercourse example

108
Attribution Theory

• Who should be blamed or praised?
• Fundamental Attribution Error
• People over-attribute others behavior to
  disposition (traits) rather than situational
  factors. But the error is also self-serving.
• If I fail, its the context if you fail, its
  because youre personally lacking
• If I succeed, its due to my characteristics, if
  you succeed, its due to the situation
• Example Racial Bias. Group X members fail
  because theyre lazy or incapable (rather than
  they have less opportunities, suffer
  discrimination, and lack silver spoons in their
  mouths)
• Application Egocentric bias people claim more
  responsibility for joint outcomes, probably due
  to the higher salience and availability of info
  about their contribution.

109
Attribution Theory

• Why does the error occur?
• People tend to ignore consensus information (base
  rates), which is less salient to them than more
  biased story lines.
• The more salient something is, the more likely it
  will appear to be causal
• Taylor and Fiske (1978) found that 3 people
  listening to a conversation rated the person in
  their visual field as most influential on the
  conversation, because attention was focused on
  them.
• Tend to attribute less variability to others than
  to oneself.
• Implication If youre not responsible for your
  own failures, who is? This leads to blame
  displacement. The government? Those people?

110
Fixing Attribution Errors

• Pay attention to base rates If most people
  behave similarly in a given situation, dont
  attribute it to disposition.
• Ask how you would have behaved in the same
  situation
• Walk a mile in someone elses shoes.

111
Social Influences

• Of course, judgments and decisions dont occur in
  a vacuum. Were influenced by other social
  actors, norms, and pressures as well.
• We worry about how others will perceive us and
  react
• Research shows that judgments and choices can be
  affected (negatively and positively) by our
  expectations of how others will view us.
• Assumption Most people are more comfortable
  conforming and want to be liked and accepted.

112
A Few Social Effects

• Social facilitation our performance is enhanced
  by onlookers for things weve mastered
  performance declines for unmastered tasks.
• Social loafing People dont work as hard in
  groups as alone.
• Diffusion of Responsibility Less likely to act
  because we figure its some elses problem.
• Kitty Genovese Example
• Social Comparison People compare their opinions
  and abilities to those like them to check
  performance and acceptability.
• Appear to be more likely to act on behalf of and
  take advice from someone like them, and even feel
  less pain from electrical shocks!

113
A Few Social Effects

• Asch experiments on conformity Many people
  espouse opinions that are obviously false if the
  majority of a group or a vocal minority assert an
  alternative truth.
• Readers survey 32
• Lone dissenters significantly decrease the
  effect, but dont get rid of it entirely
• Application mob rule, conventional wisdom on
  bureaucracy.

114
A Few Social Effects

• Groupthink (Irving Janus 1982) A cohesive and
  insulated loyal group creates pressures to
  conform to the perceived dominant opinion self
  censorship of alternative opinions.
• Groupthink leads to self-delusion and
  overconfidence.
• Application any NSC meeting, group of
  presidential insiders, CEOs
• Fix it by forcing opposing views in all
  discussions (playing devils advocate), leaders
  should let others speak before sharing own
  opinions, create redundant groups, invite
  outsiders and experts, share thinking with
  outsiders
• A group effort at selective perception

115
Groupthink

• Negative outcomes