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Development, Climate and Energy Project

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Title: Development, Climate and Energy Project


1
Development, Climate and Energy Project Thematic
Area 3 Linking Mitigation and Adaptation
Amit Garg and Kirsten Halsnæs
Presentation for First Project Meeting 13
February 2005, Paris
2
Presentation Sequence
  • Outline of AR4, WG-2, Chapter 18 on Inter-
  • Relationships between Adaptation and
    Mitigation
  • Issues for consideration
  • Analytical frameworks
  • Proposed outline of TA-3

3
Chapter 18, WG-2, AR4 Contents
  • Introduction
  • Background and rationale
  • Structure of the chapter
  • Summary of relevant knowledge in IPCC TAR
  • Framing the decision problem
  • Inter-relationships between adaptation and
    mitigation
  • Trade-offs and synergies
  • Climate policy and institutions
  • Response capacity

4
Contents contd.
  • Adaptation, mitigation and international
    agreements
  • Multilateral environmental agreements
  • Other agreements and mechanisms
  • Adaptation, mitigation and development
  • Response capacity and development pathways
  • Adaptation, mitigation and sustainable
    development
  • Adaptation, mitigation and sustainable
    development the decision problem
  • Information needs
  • Uncertainties, unknowns and knowledge
    requirements
  • Priorities for research
  • Conclusions

5
Key Messages
  • On a global scale, climate policy is not about
    the question of whether to
  • mitigate climate change or to adapt to it.
    Both are necessary.
  • Whilst there are many differences between
    adaptation and mitigation, the
  • two options are inter-related in at least
    three important ways (prevent
  • dangerous anthropogenic interference,
    international negotiations,
  • development pathways)
  • Analysis of the inter-relationships between
    adaptation and mitigation
  • may promote the effective implementation of
    climate policy
  • Links with other international agreements and
    mechanisms
  • Information needs

6
Examples of mitigation and adaptation linkages
  • Air conditioning and heat waves
  • Rural Electrification Programme with Solar Energy
    in Remote Region
  • Strategy for Promotions and Development of
    Renewable Technologies in
  • Bangladesh Experience from Grameen Shakti
  • Renewable Energy Technologies for Fuelwood
    Conservation in the Indian
  • Himalayan Region
  • Experimental Study of Using Renewable Energy in
    the Rural Areas of Oman
  • The Potential for Bioenergy Production from
    Australian Forests, its Contribution to
  • National Greenhouse targets and Recent
    Developments in Conversion Processes
  • Afforestation and GHG Mitigation in Brazil
  • Ethanol and biodiesel
  • Horse-power Urban domestic recycling and the
    development of sustainable local
  • community structures
  • Community forest management in Mexico

7
TA-3 Issues for Consideration
8
Climate change impacts, vulnerability, and
adaptation in the energy sector with a special
emphasis given to linkages between adaptation and
mitigation policies in the energy sector.
  • Differences, similarities and trade-offs between
    mitigation and adaptation
  • Possible linkages in the energy sector
  • Common driving forces at national policy level
  • Ascertain common risks and uncertainty
  • Develop an analytical framework
  • Modelling efforts
  • Apply framework to country case studies
  • Institutional issues

9
Differences betweenMitigation and Adaptation
  • Mitigation policy is more global involving many
    countries, adaptation is
  • more within a country and local
  • Costs of mitigation arise locally while its
    benefits are dispersed globally.
  • For adaptation both accrue locally
  • Time frames (mitigation decades to centuries,
    adaptation years to decades)
  • Time delays between action and results
    (mitigation larger, adaptation
  • much shorter)
  • Implementation mechanisms

10
Similarities betweenMitigation and Adaptation
  • Overlapping issues while conceptualizing
    Adaptive and Mitigative capacities
  • Help prevent dangerous anthropogenic
    interference with the climate
  • systems
  • Common concerns such as market failures
  • Common solutions such as renewable energy,
    afforestation, market
  • development
  • Linkages with development pathways
  • Subject of international negotiations on climate
    policy and related
  • institutions

11
Trade-offs between Mitigation and Adaptation
  • Mitigation expenditure may divert social or
    private resources and may
  • reduce funds available for adaptation (e.g.
    investment to develop
  • agriculture infrastructure for poor and
    marginal farmers)
  • If mitigating carbon emissions enhances dirty
    biomass use in rural areas
  • thus increasing indoor air pollution and
    exposures
  • If adaptation implies more energy use (space
    cooling, heating) from
  • carbon intensive resources, it affects
    mitigation efforts negatively

12
Possible linkages in the energy sector
  • Energy Access
  • Energy efficiency
  • Renewable energy sources (e.g. afforestation for
    energy crops, biofuels offer
  • mitigation and higher employment per unit of
    energy generated, biogas based lighting
  • and cooking, irrigation water pumping using
    solar/ wind, biodiesel based generators)
  • New energy sources (e.g. hydrogen)
  • Transportation (e.g. better roads and
    infrastructure reduce fuel consumption and
  • improve access to markets, GHG and local
    pollutants links and disjoints)
  • The costs and the reduction potential of the
    wind energy depend on the power
  • market, grids, land costs, financial markets
    etc. Many of these context specific
  • issues also influence how adaptation
    measures like irrigation and improved
  • management practices can be implemented in
    agriculture
  • ??

13
Some common driving forces
  • Land reforms
  • Access to commodity markets
  • Access to financial markets (would facilitate
    access to insurance sector)
  • Access to energy and electricity markets
  • Governance profile (local/ regional/ central
    institutions)

14
Common risks and uncertainty
  • Some examples
  • Extreme events on coasts (energy infrastructure
    and coastal populations)
  • Draughts (enhanced energy requirements for
    irrigation and drinking water
  • access, marginal farmers badly affected)
  • Explore common solutions by applying
    precautionary principles
  • Access to insurance systems (private and
    community)
  • Hedging strategies (e.g. low water crops)
  • Inclusion of low-probability events in risk
    assessment

15
Modelling efforts
  • SRES and stabilization scenario results for
    energy efficiency, renewable, and new energy
  • technology penetrations
  • Identify winner RE technologies that are
    projected to have highest shares under
  • various scenarios in the project
    participating countries, estimated range of
    population
  • affected directly due to enhanced RE
    penetration
  • Mitigation potential assessment, role of
    renewable technologies for each country, sectoral
  • and regional flexibility in mitigation
    indicating sectors/ regions that may supply more
  • credits at lower carbon prices
  • Employment generation potential for each country
  • Costs and investments
  • Estimate adaptive capacity enhancement??
  • Develop indicators for linking mitigation and
    adaptation (qualitative and quantitative)

16
Institutional issues
  • Regulatory frameworks and policy regimes
  • Stakeholder management
  • Barriers to linkages social, technological,
    financial, implementation
  • Stimulate public-private partnerships
  • How to replicate national successful case
    studies
  • Integrated National CC Policies
  • Role of international institutions

17
Analytical frameworks
18
The sequential nature of the climate policy
process
Source ZOD Chapter 18 of WG-2, AR4
19
Adaptation, mitigation and development paths
Source ZOD Chapter 18 of WG-2, AR4
20
Climate policy decision-making and development
paths
Source ZOD Chapter 18 of WG-2, AR4
21
Linkages between response capacity and desired
adaptation and mitigation
22
TAR figure on SD, adaptation and mitigation
interactions
23
Integrated Assessment Framework India Study
  • Prime issues identified are national emission
    assessment of local and global pollutants, and
    assessment of impacts on natural and human
    systems.
  • These interactions and their results are modified
    and managed by the socio-economic development
    paths selected by the country.

24
Interactions between the climate, natural and the
socio-economic systems and the relationships to
SD and adaptation-mitigation
25
Analytic Framework for Case Studies

26
Proposed Outline of TA-3
27
  • Overview
  • Why to link mitigation and adaptation?
  • Differences, similarities and trade-offs
  • Development pathways
  • Energy sector related adaptation and mitigation
    concerns in developing countries
  • What is at stake? (Extent of impacts in the
    participating countries)
  • Existing adaptation policies and measures
  • GHG emission projections from the energy sector
  • Possible linkages in the energy sector
  • Energy access
  • Energy efficiency
  • Water
  • Renewable energy sources
  • New energy sources
  • Transport
  • Wind and others

28
Thanks
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