Paul Richards, UCL CASA

1
Real time geodemographics for reassurance
policing and crime prevention

• Paul Richards, UCL CASA
• ESRC CASE Studentship in collaboration with the
  Metropolitan Police Service

2
The Disciplines

• Criminology,
• Policing,
• Information Systems
• Geography.

3
The Problem

• To create a real time geodemographic
  computer/internet application for reassurance
  policing and crime prevention to be used by the
  police and the public.

4
The Resources

• The expertise of CASA, UCL Department of
  Geography and the wider academic community.
• The support of the Metropolitan Police Service.
• Access to relevant MPS data.

5
The expertise of CASA, UCL Department of
Geography and the wider academic community

• Publications
• Academic Journal Articles
• Ashby, D.I. and Longley, P.A. (2005)
  Geocomputation, Geodemographics and Resource
  Allocation for Local Policing. Transactions in
  GIS, 9 (1) 5372.
• Williamson, T., Ashby, D.I. and Webber, R. (2005)
  Young offenders, schools and the neighbourhood a
  new approach to data-analysis for community
  policing. Journal of Community and Appied Social
  Psychology, 15 (3) 203-228.
• Ashby, D.I. (2005) Policing Neighbourhoods
  Exploring the Geographies of Crime, Policing and
  Performance Assessment. Policing and Society, 15
  (4) 435-469.
• Williamson, T., Ashby, D.I. and Webber, R. (2006)
  Classifying Neighbourhoods for Reassurance
  Policing. Policing and Society, 16 (2) 189-218.
• Ashby, D.I., Irving, B. and Longley, P. (2006)
  Police Reform and the New Public Management
  Paradigm matching technology to the rhetoric.
  Environment and Planning C in press.
• Book Chapters and Reviews
• Ashby, D.I. and Craglia, M. (2006) Profiling
  places Geodemographics and GIS. Chapter 20 in
  Newburn, T., Williamson, T. and Wright, A. (2006)
  Handbook of Criminal Investigation. Cullompton
  Willan.
• Ashby, D.I. (2003) Book Review Planning for
  Crime Prevention A TransAtlantic Perspective by
  Richard H. Schneider and Ted Kitchen. Environment
  and Planning B, 30 (3) 477-478.

6
The expertise of CASA, UCL Department of
Geography and the wider academic community

• Reports
• Ashby, D.I. and Webber, R. (2005) High Crime
  High Disorder Neighbourhoods. Spatial Analysis
  and Geodemographics. Report submitted to the
  Audit Commission. London UCL.
• Ashby, D.I. and Longley, P.A. (2004) Sustainable
  GIS and Data Sharing Infrastructure. Report
  submitted to the Metropolitan Police Service,
  Camden Borough (in association with Camden
  Primary Care Trust). London UCL.
• Ashby, D.I. and Webber R. (2004) Geodemographics
  for Reassurance Policing. Report submitted to
  National Reassurance Policing Programme, Home
  Office/ACPO. London UCL.
• Haklay, M., Jones, K. and Ashby, D.I. (2004)
  E-pride Modernisation / CamStats. Report and
  website submitted to the Metropolitan Police
  Service, Camden Borough. lthttp//www.met.police.uk
  /camden/camstatsgt London UCL.
• Ashby, D.I. and Webber, R (2004) Recommended
  standards for the analysis of crime incident
  data, Version 1.1. Mosaic Crime Analysis Club.
  Nottingham Experian Business Strategies / UCL.
• Ashby, D.I., Longley, P.A. and Haklay, M. (2003)
  Inter-Departmental GIS Requirement Analysis.
  Report submitted to the Metropolitan Police
  Service, Camden Borough (in association with
  Camden Primary Care Trust). London UCL.

7
The support of the Metropolitan Police Service
http//campaigns.direct.gov.uk/policingpledge/
8
Crime Maps

• 8. Provide monthly updates on progress, and on
  local crime and policing issues. This will
  include the provision of crime maps, information
  on specific crimes and what happened to those
  brought to justice, details of what action we and
  our partners are taking to make your
  neighbourhood safer and information on how your
  force is performing.

http//maps.met.police.uk/
9
Reassurance Policing

• Recent years have seen falls in recorded crime
  in England and Wales, although the perception for
  many has remained that crime is rising. This has
  been dubbed the reassurance gap and is closely
  related to concerns over fear of crime and public
  confidence in the police. Reassurance policing
  (RP) is seen as a means to address this gap.
• Millie and Herrington (2004)

10
CRIME An offence established by criminal law.
Recorded Crime complies with Home Office and in
the MPS is stored on the CRIS system.
Recorded Crime
Fear of Crime
Reported
Not Reported/Discovered
The British Crime Survey (BCS)attempts to assess
the level of crime that is not recorded by police
FEAR OF CRIME a feeling of insecurity/danger at
a location and time. Assessed by surveys
including the BCS.
Not a crime according to the law
11
Reassurance Policing concepts

• Signal crimes/incidents things that increase
  the fear of crime and change behaviour.
• Officers patrolling on foot assigned to a
  neighbourhood increases a sense of security and
  decreases the fear of crime.
• Officers responding in cars has reduced recorded
  crime but not the fear of crime.
• If the fear of crime is not reduced then the
  public will start losing confidence in the
  police.

12
How is this research going to change the price of
fish?

• OK thats the history and the policy frame-work,
  what is this research going to do that is new and
  useful?

13
Access to relevant MPS data

• Is the reassurance gap partly caused by the data
  gap?

14
Case Papers
Public Space Overt
Police Space Overt
Stops
CAD
Custody
DIP
GPS
Crime investigations
Operations
Police National Computer
Intelligence
Public Space Covert
Police Space Covert
15
The New Data Set Computer Aided Despatch (CAD)
16
Demand and Resource Information System(DARIS)
17
The New Data Set Computer Aided Despatch (CAD)
18
Data Selection
19
Two possible ways of identifying signal crimes
London Boroughs
High crime blue
Low crime brown
BCS comparisons crimes 2007/8
CAD 5 units assigned 2007/8
20
Two possible ways of identifying signal crimes
London Wards
High crime blue
Low crime brown
BCS comparisons crimes 2007/8
CAD 5 units assigned 2007/8
21
Towards measuring/predicting fear of crime using
police data?

• Integrating reported crime and police incident
  data with adjustments to allow for
  under-reporting of crime by reference to BSC data
  and geodemographic differences of different
  locations.
• Possibly also adjusted by police resource data.

22
Policing Style Proactivity versus Reactivity
Blue
Brown
23
GPS of mobile Patrols and Foot-patrols

• Ensure your Neighbourhood Policing Team and other
  police patrols are visible and on your patch at
  times when they will be most effective and when
  you tell us you most need them. We will ensure
  your team are not taken away from neighbourhood
  business more than is absolutely necessary. They
  will spend at least 80 of their time visibly
  working in your neighbourhood, tackling your
  priorities. Staff turnover will be minimised.
• 5. Aim to answer 999 calls within 10 seconds,
  deploying to emergencies immediately giving an
  estimated time of arrival, getting to you safely,
  and as quickly as possible. In urban areas, we
  will aim to get to you within 15 minutes and in
  rural areas within 20 minutes.

24
Geodemographics

• Other data sets
• Standardisation for comparison
• Create a crime geodemographic or overlay on
  existing

Real time

• Software
• Design
• Hosting