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CNP Assurances

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Title: CNP Assurances


1
CNP Assurances
  • Frances leading personal insurer

January 2009
2
  • A strong business model
  • A growth strategy backed by strong fundamentals
  • H1 2008 results
  • Hot topics
  • 2008/2012 business plan
  • Main international agreements
  • French life market Outlook
  • CNP and the financial crisis

3
CNPs business model
  • Individual insurance bancassurance through two
    major networks in France
  • La Banque Postale ? Caixa Economica Federal
    (Brazil)
  • Savings Banks ? Unicredit (Italy)
  • and an inhouse salesforce CNP Trésor
  • Group insurance traditional distribution
    through business-to-business partnerships

Distribution
Product offering
Development of the offer
Marketing initiatives
Needs analysis
Sales
Financial management
Policy management
Fund selection
Underwriting
Events in life of policy
Claims management
ALM
Asset management
4
CNP Strengths and Challenges
Strengths
Challenges
  • Deal with decreasing margins in France
  • Adapt to changes in the Italian market
  • Revitalise the CNP Trésor sales force and boost
    Savings Banks sales.
  • Respond to slower growth in the French life
    insurance market after three years of rapid
    expansion, but with mathematical reserves still
    playing a significant role in driving earnings.
  • Vitality of the distribution networks two large
    often counter-cyclical networks in France
  • 19,000 sales outlets nationwide
  • Loyal customers (24 million being served by our
    networks) and potential to grow the life
    insurance penetration rate
  • A variety of age groups and socio-professional
    categories
  • Role as a bancassurer and a group insurer range
    extended to include risk products, such as loan
    and personal risk insurance
  • Low policy administration costs but still room
    for improvement
  • Strong and resilient drivers through mathematical
    reserves
  • High quality asset/liability management, ensuring
    our resilience in the face of market crises

5
Milestones
CNPs history
  • 1998 Public offering of 21 of CNPs capital
  • 2001 Acquisition of 51 of Caixa Seguros in
    Brazil
  • 2005 CNP Assurances acquires 57.5 of FinecoVita
    for 575m
  • June 2006 CNP Assurances renews the distribution
    agreements with Group Caisses dÉpargne and
    Banque Postale until 31 December 2015
  • Nov. 2006 SP rating AA
  • Dec 2006 1.25 billion subordinated debt issue
  • Jan. 2007 Shareholders agreement renewed until
    2015
  • Feb. 2007 - 700 million share issue
  • - Acquisition of Écureuil Vie completed
  • July 2007 Change in governance from a
    Supervisory Board and Executive Board to a Board
    of Directors
  • Jan. 2008 -New partnership CNP
    Assurances/Unicredit (Joint subsidiary CCV)
  • -2008/2012 Business plan

6
Renewal of the shareholders agreement until 2015
Ownership (Nov. 07)
Sopassure La Banque Postale Caisses dÉpargne
35.48
39.99
CDC (Caisse des Dépôts)
23.44
  • Public breaks down as
  • 19 institutions ( of which France 8, US 7,
    UK 4)
  • 4 Individuals and employees

Public
French State 1.09
  • Relationships between CNP Assurances key
    shareholders are subject to a shareholders
    agreement that has been extended until end 2015

7
Renewal of distribution agreements with our major
partners
June 2006
  • Stable long-term environment for CNP Assurances
  • Distribution agreements renewed with our major
    partner networks
  • Individual insurance
  • With the Savings Banks ? 31 Dec. 2015
  • With La Banque Postale ? 31 Dec. 2015
  • Loan insurance
  • With the Savings Banks ? 31 Dec. 2015
  • Applicable from 1 January 2006
  • Individual Insurance
  • Unit-linked contracts increase in the networks
    share of premium loading
  • 60-65 under the previous agreements
  • 70 bonus for meeting objectives or 100,
    depending on the product
  • Non-unit-linked contracts commission on managed
    assets based on financial margins
  • In a difficult financial market environment, the
    effect on margins will be shared between CNP
    Assurances and the network
  • If margins and productivity increase, the network
    will receive a larger share of the margin
  • The partnerships will be reviewed in 2012

8
CNP Assurances rated AA negative outlook
Last report November 2008
AA
Outlook negative
  • Leading life insurer in France
  • A unique and profitable business model that
    benefits from very strong support and operational
    links with shareholders cemented by a
    shareholders pact and a 10-year exclusive
    distribution agreement
  • A strong investment strategy, supported by sound
    ALM practices with highly segregated funds
  • Close link and support from French state-owned
    CDC
  • Strong operating performance

Risk profile
A front ranked player in the French life
insurance industry …
… and a very safe investment portfolio risk
profile
… with secure and powerful distribution channels…
9
CNP Assurances Business Environment in France
Long-term shareholders agreement and
distribution agreements
Caisses dÉpargne
La Banque Postale
CDC
50
50
Sopassure
lt 40
35.48
CNP Écureuil Vie Merged in 2007
Capital ties Distribution agreements
  • Shareholders agreement renewed until 2015
  • Distribution agreements in France renewed until
    2015

10
  • A strong business model
  • A growth strategy backed by strong fundamentals
  • H1 2008 results
  • Hot topics
  • 2008/2012 business plan
  • Main international agreements
  • French life market Outlook
  • CNP and the financial crisis

11
Overview of CNP Assurances
Key facts
Breakdown of gross premiums - FY 2007-
  • Frances leading personal insurer
  • 18.4 share of the personal insurance market
  • 18.3 share of the savings and pensions market
  • Significant share of the loan insurance market
  • 14m clients in France and 24m globally (of which
    7m in Brazil)
  • CNP clients / total active clients in French
    networks 3.6m/12m (Banque Postale), 3m/8m
    (Savings Banks)
  • 13m individual insurance contracts
  • A comprehensive range of personal insurance
    products
  • Extensive distribution networks
  • More than 19,000 sales outlets in France (and
    28,000 globally)
  • Long-term agreements

Health 1
PC 1
Loan insurance 7
Personal Risk 5
Pension 7
Savings 79
Brazil 4
Portugal 1
Italy 9
France 86
12
Overview of CNP Assurances
Breakdown of gross premiums by partner - FY 2007-
Key facts
  • Measured international development
  • Brazil, Portugal, Argentina, local bases in
    Europe
  • Recent acquisitions in Italy, Spain and Greece
  • Low risk profile
  • Rigorous ALM
  • Asset mix in line with risk profile high quality
    assets
  • Low sensitivity of embedded value to market
  • Significant cushion of unrealised capital gains

Others 1
Foreign subs. 14
Mutual insurers 3
La Banque Postale 38
Companies 5
Financial inst. 4
CNP Trésor 3
Savings Banks 32
13
  • A strong business model
  • A growth strategy backed by strong fundamentals
  • H1 2008 results
  • Hot topics
  • 2008/2012 business plan
  • Main international agreements
  • French life market Outlook
  • CNP and the financial crisis

14
Reported Profit Stable Despite the Crisis
m
Change (restated1)
Change (reported)
H1 2008
CNP Group
EBIT
1,264
80.5
6.9
- Finance costs Associates
(38)
-
-
- Income tax expense
(366)
-
-
- Minority interests
(74)
-
-
Recurring profit before capital gains
785
100.1
8.0
/- Net gains on equities and property
(29)
-
-
Attributable to equity holders
Recurring profit
756
86.1
9.1
/- Fair value adjustments to trading securities
(182)
-
-
Reported profit
574
1.1
9.2
(1) Restated to exclude non-recurring adjustments
to technical reserves linked to the financial
crisis
15
Further Growth in Technical Reserves
IFRS, in m
CNP Group
Change (restated1)
Change (reported)
H1 2008
Premium income 14,063 - 19.2 -
Average technical reserves (excl. deferred
participation) 237,808 6.3 -
Net insurance revenue 1,642 54.4 6.1
- Administrative expenses (378) 4.2 -
EBIT 1,264 80.5 6.9
(1) Restated to exclude non-recurring releases
from technical reserves
16
Technical Reserves Have Increased Steadily
Despite Cyclical Fluctuations in Revenue
Growth in new money (CNP)
French GAAP (in m)
32.2bn
- 16.8
8/year
?
12.8bn
H1 2008
Growth in technical reserves (CNP)
(in m)
235.5bn
4.5
13/year
?
54.8bn
H1 2008
17
84 of Net Insurance Revenue Derived from
Technical Reserves
Sources of Net Insurance Revenue H1 2008 before
non-recurring adjustments to technical reserves
Savings premiums
Shareholders Portion
Premiums
4
16
Savings technical reserves
29
28
9
Personal Risk
30
84
Pensions and Other
Technical reserves
Policyholders Proprietary
18
EBIT By Business Segment
EBIT before restatements (m)
6.9
?
1.0
956
?
894
12.3
?
536
13.7
532
?
302
269
H1 2007
83
73
H1 2008
H1 2008 EBIT by Business Segment
Other 4
P. Risk 32
Savings 55
Pensions 9
19
Profitability by Business Segment
EBIT (before restatements)/Solvency Capital Ratio
22.9
21.6
10.5
10.4
10.0
9.7
8.2
7.7
H1 2007
H1 2008
20
Non-Recurring Adjustments to Technical Reserves
Triggered by Financial Crisis
  • Total released from technical reserves in H1
    2008 307m
  • 222m reversal of surplus mathematical reserves
    for disability risks
  • Following increase in the discount rate from
    1.25 to 2.75
  • Additions to reserves lower than in H1 2007

21
Impact of Fair Value Adjustments on Profit
m
  • Impact on recurring profit

Total Impact Equities Property
Realised gains Equities
Realised gains Property
Gross Impairment
Net Impairment
AFS (811) (91) 61 1 (29)
  • Impact on attributable net profit

Realised gains on trading securities
Shadow accounting adjustments before tax
Fair value adjustments before tax
Total Impact
Net
Tax effect
Trading (2,376) 1,930 164 (282) 100 (182)
22
Limited Impact of the ABS Crisis
  • Fair value adjustments
  • Before shadow accounting adjustments 427m
  • After shadow accounting adjustments and after
    tax 34m
  • 29.5m recognised in profit
  • 4.5m recognised in equity

23
Estimated European Embedded Value at 30 June 2008
75.1 Per Share
Estimated
In /share
77.8
75.1
74.9
0.2
In Force
19.1
?
16.7
2.85
19.1
Dividend
58.7
ANAV
58.4
55.8
51.45
31 December 2007 Before dividend
31 December 2007 After dividend
30 June 2008 Before dividend
  • At 30 June 2008 148,537,823 shares

24
Value of New Business and margin by Country
  • Estimated value of New Business 147m or
    1.0/share
  • Estimated change in New Business margin (NB/APE)
    in H1 2008

26.5
23.7
13.6
11.5
11.2
10.7
10.1
9.0
Brazil
Italy
Total
France
FY 2007
H1 2008
25
Solvency Capital at 30 June 2008
m French GAAP
17,301
6,057
Unrealised gains
Subordinated debt
3,747
Estimated required capital, including minority
interests
120
9,269
Equity(1) including capitalisation reserve
7,497
  • Required capital covered 1.85 times before losses
    on bond portfolio

(1) After dividends and net of intangible assets
26
Full Year 2008 Outlook
Press release Q3 08 Revenue (07 nov.08)
  • Concerning the full-year outlook, in light of the
    quality of its operating indicators and solid
    underlying fundamentals, CNP Assurances is
    confident in its ability to report a 10 increase
    in recurring profit before fair value adjustments
    to financial assets, representing the equivalent
    of operating profit.

27
  • A strong business model
  • A growth strategy backed by strong fundamentals
  • H1 2008 results
  • Hot topics
  • 2008/2012 business plan
  • Main International agreements
  • French life market Outlook
  • CNP and the financial crisis

28
Ambitious Targets
2008-2012 Business Plan
The same overall performance, despite less
favourable market growth assumptions
2001-2006 13 annual growth in the French life
pensions market
2007- 2012 3.3 annual growth
VS
2001-2006 Profit bef. capital gains and losses
up 87 NBV up 100
2007-2012 EBIT up 90 NBV up 100
TARGET
29
Three Major Targets
2008-2012 Business Plan
Business plan Jan. 2008
Premiums (Base 100)
EBIT (Base 100)
90
50
?
?
190
150
100
100
2012
2007
2012
2007
Value of New Business (Base 100)
X 2
?
200
100
2012
2007
30
Main International Agreements ITALY
  • Italy a new framework for the partnership with
    UniCredit
  • Adjusted distribution agreements with UniCredit
    (running until 2012)
  • Geographic organisation from November 2008
    redefined exclusive territory
  • Equivalent potential (in terms of new money)
  • Merger between Xelion Bank and Fineco Bank

31
Main International Agreements ITALY
  • The UniCredit agreement also provides for
  • Revamped product range from 1 January 2008
  • Realigned product mix index-linked withdrawn by
    2010

Launch of a new loan insurance offer
Personal risk/ loan insurance
4
Increased market shares, particularly in loan
insurance
78
Index-linked
17
Unit-linked
2007
2010
  • The agreements preserve the potential for value
    creation
  • Savings
  • Existing products terms maintained
  • New products higher loading and increased
    distributors share
  • Loan insurance new offer with improved loading
  • More stable revenues (unit-linked loading
    deducted from assets)

?
32
Main International Agreements BRAZIL
  • Brazil long-term exclusive distribution
    agreement with a powerful network
  • Agreement until 2021 with Brazils second largest
    public banking network, Caixa Economica Federal
  • 4,000 branches throughout Brazil, 9,000 other
    points of sale (lottery ticket sales offices),
  • 23 million savers,
  • 5.3 million accounts.
  • Significant potential for value creation (Caixa
    Seguros 7 million customers)
  • Strong growth outlook for Caixa Seguros
  • President Lulas growth acceleration plan relayed
    by Caixa
  • A robust position in home loan insurance, thanks
    to government measures to kick-start growth

33
French life market
France Outlook
FY 2008 Forecast (October 08)
Competition from short term deposits - 4 to
-5
Major Effects Estimated
Stock market effect
- 3 to -4
Total expected growth -8
to -10
  • 2009 Gradual return to normal. French Life
    market should remain stable.

34
Asset Allocation
CNP and the financial crisis
  • Total managed assets 213bn excl. unit-linked
    (30 June 2008)

Other 3
Property 3
IFRS before fair value adjustments
Equities 14
Bonds 80
  • Allocation in each portfolio based on
    characteristics of corresponding insurance and
    financial liabilities
  • Property is under-weighted

35
A High Quality ABS Portfolio
CNP and the financial crisis
  • Assets concerned
  • Indirect exposure to the US subprime market 10m
  • Asset-backed securities
  • ABS portfolio 5.4bn (of which CDOs 2.5bn)
  • 76 of ABSs held in policyholder portfolios
  • No defaults
  • ABSs at 30 June 2008

Other ABSs 0.58bn
  • Consumer loans, student loans and loans to SMEs
  • 77 in Europe, 16 in the US, 7 in other OECD
    countries

Credit card ABSs 1bn
  • All credit card ABSs rated AAA
  • 76 corresponding to US credit card debt
  • 19 to UK credit card debt
  • 5 to German credit card debt

CDOs/CLOs 2.52bn
  • Investment grade CDOs/CLOs 2.1bn
  • Leveraged CLOs and other CDOs 0.4bn

RMBSs 1.32bn
73 of CDOs rated BBB or non-investment
grade include a capital guarantee
  • 66 backed by French mortgages
  • 34 backed by mortgages outside France
  • None backed by US mortgages

36
CNP exposures to Lehman Brothers, AIG, and
Washington Mutual
CNP and the financial crisis
  • CNP exposure to Lehman Brothers
  • Bond portfolio 100Mn (after policyholder
    participation and tax)
  • Equity portfolio no direct exposure, indirect
    exposure not material
  • CNP exposure to AIG
  • Bond portfolio 68Mn (after policyholder
    participation and tax)
  • Equity portfolio no exposure
  • CNP exposure to Washington Mutual
  • Bond portfolio 2,5Mn (after policyholder
    participation and tax)
  • Equity exposure no exposure

37
  • Appendices

38
La Banque Postale
Description
  • CNP contributes to La Postes performance
    through
  • Product design
  • IT system integration
  • Marketing strategy input
  • Participation of our regional sales agents in La
    Postes marketing strategy
  • La Postes restructuring and creation of La
    Banque Postale (2006) have driven faster growth
    (19.6)
  • Strong sales of the new Vivaccio range, launched
    in January 2006
  • CNP and La Poste operate through a 50/50 joint
    venture, Assurposte (for risk products)

2007 premium income Change/2006
12,015m -0.5
  • French Post Office
  • 12m active clients, of whom 3.6m are users of CNP
    products
  • 17,025 branches, 6,600 specialised financial
    advisers
  • Willingness to further develop new products in
    promising markets with the Postal Bank
  • In June 2006, distribution agreement renewed
    through December 2015

Premium income from La Poste
12,102m
12,015m
8,865m
- 0.5
7,810m
GWP
6,958m
36.5
GWP growth
6,606m
13.3
12.2
GMO Poste Avenir Savings Multi-supports (Unit-li
nked ) Vivaccio
5,872m (66.2 of premium) Managed assets
49,100m
5.3
2006
2007
2003
2004
2002
2005
Based on IFRS
39
Saving Banks
Description
  • In 2006, CNP and Caisses dEpargne operated
    through a 50/50 joint venture, Ecureuil Vie.
  • In February 2007, CNP has acquired 100 of
    Ecureuil Vie.
  • Caisses dEpargne have a strong track-record at
    selling unit-linked products, with outstanding
    product innovation know-how (Nuances 3D
    products)
  • A significant growth area is personal risks
    products (Prévoyance)

10,2001m -5.0
2007 premium income Change/2006
Premium income from the Savings Banks
10,741.3m
10,200.1m
9,775m
-0.5
8,482m
GWP
7,747m
7,189m
9.9
GWP growth
15.2
9.5
7.8
2006
2007
2003
2004
2002
2005
Based on IFRS
40
CNP Trésor
Description
CNP Trésor
  • CNP has transformed the former French Treasury
    network into a fully dedicated sales force
  • Focused on high net worth individuals
  • Objectives
  • Leverage existing portfolio more effectively
  • Extend and streamline product range
  • Continue to upgrade the Savings offer
  • Maintain pace of growth in unit-linked sales
  • Improve client segmentation
  • Focus on high-end clients

862.8m -12.2
2007 premium income Change/2006
Premium income from CNP Trésor
982.5m
862.8m
801.9m
790.8m
738.1m
Trésor
605.3m
24.2
-12.2
CNP Trésor
-8.0
30.6
GWP growth
-16.8
2003
2004
2002
2005
2007
2006
Based on IFRS
41
Specificities of the French life insurance
market
  • Life technical reserves (bn)
  • Personal insurance premium income (bn)
  • Surrenders Very stable over the past 15 years
    (50 of claims), tax penalty discourages clients
    from any massive exit
  • Bancassurance More than 60 of premium income
    comes from banking networks

Source FFSA
42
Breakdown of liabilities by type of contract
At 31 December 2007 (m)
Breakdown
At 31 December 1997 (m)
Breakdown
Unit-linked contracts 41,506.3 17.6 (1)
1,631 2.0
1,631.0
Contracts offering guaranteed rate of return
(gr) 0 lt gr lt 60 TME (2) 54,848.3 23.3 27,516.3
33.3
Contracts offering guaranteed rate of return
(gr) 0 98,789.4 41.9 4,330.3 5.2
After 8 years
Contracts offering a higher variable rate of
return 2,965.6 1.3 3,475.8 4.2
Contracts offering a higher fixed rate of return
6,401.1 2.7 28,355.5 34.3
Guaranteed rate contracts including dividends
0.0 0 3,277.7 4.0
Others (3) 31,007.7 13.2 13,964.3 16.9
Total 235,518.4 100.0 82,551.1 100.0
(1) Incl. CNP Capitalia Vita (2) TME average
government bond yield (3) Incl. personal risk,
loan insurance, annuities
  • Between 1997 and 2007, CNP's exposure to interest
    rate risks on its contracts declined
    significantly, reflecting
  • Growth in unit-linked business
  • A sharp decline in the proportion of contracts
    offering a higher fixed rate of return
  • The increased proportion of contracts offering a
    guaranteed rate of return not exceeding 60 of
    the TME
  • CNP Assurances practice rate of return
    guaranteed for 8 or 10 years only, no guarantee
    beyond this period
  • These liabilities are matched by assets with
    similar interest rate profiles and the
    commitments are adequately covered by technical
    reserves

43
Sustained growth in profit
  • Strong, steady growth led by sound growth drivers
  • Commissions on premiums
  • Commissions on assets under management
  • Positive cash-flow from the contracts first year
    on
  • No deferred acquisition costs

?
31
2.85
23.1
1 178
?
2.30
948
15.2
8.0
?
?
2.0
902
?
8.1
1.91
?
724.7
12.2
Recurring net profit in m
?
629.3
571.1
582.6
1.66
528.3
1.53
470.9
1.49
1.39
Dividend in / share
1.08
Payout ratio
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
2001
2002
2004
2000
2003
2005
2006
2007
French Gaap
IFRS Gaap
In of recurring net profit After
desensitization
  • Under IFRS, the dividend is based on net profit
    before fair value adjustments

44
Managing a Sharp Rate Fall the Japanese scenario
  • Asset yield projected over 10 years with income
    reinvested in 1 or 2 fixed rate bonds from
    2008, assuming flat stock prices
  • In force business at end-2007, surrenders and
    payments taken into account

CNP Group on a 100 basis
Asset yield with income
...reinvested at 2
...reinvested at 1
Guaranteed yield
45
Resilient embedded value
77.8
EEV 77.8 /share Before dividend
4.5
69.85
2.75
2.85
2.70
2.55
61.4
After dividend After goodwill /share
54.9
In force EEV
50.1
19.1
45.5
43.5
43.4
42
39.5
58.7
Net asset value
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2007
2007
Trad. EV
EEV
EEV
EEV
Number of shares as of 31 Dec. 2006 138,635,302
and of Dec. 2007 148 537 823 The net asset
value used to calculate EV is net asset value
less the value of the portfolio acquired (Caixa
Seguros, CNP Capitalia Vita) and the deferred tax
assets in Brazil
46
Sustainable development
  • Socially responsible investor
  • Quarterly SRI review of the entire proprietary
    portfolio (conducted jointly with Natixis AM)
  • Governance, human resources, environmental and
    CSR policies
  • Participation in all shareholders meetings in
    France, extension to the rest of the EU
  • Four-fold increase in policyholder investment in
    SRI unit-linked funds over past two years
  • CNP Assurances now included in several leading
    SRI indices
  • Ethibel Sustainability Index Excellence
  • Ethibel Sustainability Index Pioneer
  • ASPI Eurozone
  • ECPI Ethical

47
Strong stock market performance since 1999
Since 1999, CNP share price multiplied by 2
CNP
CAC 40
DJ insurance
48
Disclaimer
  • "Some of the statements contained in this
    document may be forward-looking statements
    referring to projections, future events, trends
    or objectives which, by their very nature,
    involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual
    results could differ materially from those
    currently anticipated in such statements by
    reason of factors such as changes in general
    economic conditions and conditions in the
    financial markets, legal or regulatory decisions
    or changes, changes in the frequency and amount
    of insured claims, particularly as a result of
    changes in mortality and morbidity rates, changes
    in surrender rates,  interest rates, foreign
    exchange rates, the competitive environment, the
    policies of foreign central banks or governments,
    legal proceedings, the effects of acquisitions
    and the integration of newly-acquired businesses,
    and general factors affecting competition.
    Further information regarding factors which may
    cause results to differ materially from those
    projected in forward looking statements is
    included in CNP Assurances filings with the
    Autorité des Marchés Financiers. CNP Assurances
    does not undertake to update any forward-looking
    statements presented herein to take into account
    any new information, future event or other
    factors."
  • "The English language version of this document is
    a free translation from the original, which was
    prepared in French. All possible care has been
    taken to ensure that the translation is an
    accurate representation of the original. However,
    in all matters of interpretation of information,
    views or opinions expressed therein, the original
    language version of the document in French takes
    precedence over the translation."

49
Investor relations team Jim Root
Jim.root_at_cnp.fr 33 1 42 18 71 89 Jean-Yves
Icole jean-yves.icole_at_cnp.fr 33 1 42 18 94
93 CNP Assurances 4, place Raoul Dautry 75716
Paris Cedex 15 infofi_at_cnp.fr
www.cnp-finances.fr
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