Long term demand for freight transportation in developing regions

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Long term demand for freight transportation in
developing regions
Katalin Nora Szarka University of Leoben,
Austria Environmentally Compatible Energy
Strategies (ECS) Supervisors Gerhard Totschnig
Hal Turton
Mid-summer Workshop, Laxenburg, 20-21 July 2005
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Overview

• Background
• Methodology and modeling approach
• Expected results

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Background

• Freight mobility
• is a major factor of economic and social
  development,
• is source of environmental pollution and
• is significant consumer of energy.

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Background
Positioning of the transport system
Adapted from P. Haggett (2001) Geography A
Modern Synthesis
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Background

• Specific features of freight transportation in
  developing regions
• Diversity of items being transported
• Diversity of decision makers and participants
• Limited availability of data
• High uncertainties of future
• development of technology,
• population, economic and
• political situation

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Project aims

• Aims of the project
• Estimate future freight activity (ton-km)
• Determination of quantities and flows from the
  various origin zones and to the various
  destination zones
• Determine modal split Allocation of the flows to
  transport modes

Railway
Water
Air
Road
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Methodology

• Identification of qualitative and quantitative
  driving forces (e.g. GDP, industrial location
  patterns, cost elasticity, etc.) of freight
  transportation.
• Collection of historical data on freight activity
  and driving forces (past 30 years, region level).
• Derivation of statistical relationships between
  drivers and freight mobility.

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Methodology and models

• Derivation of statistical relationships with
  models - chosen according to data availability,
  time interval to be examined, available tools,
  applicability within IIASA models (SG, MESSAGE)
  and for SRES scenarios, etc. for determination
  of
• Quantities and flows of goods to be transported
  (e.g. Trend and time series model, Zonal trip
  rate model, Gravity model)
• Modal split Allocation of the flows to modes
  (e.g. Elasticity-based model , Aggregate-,
  disaggregate modal split model)

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Methodology and models

• Application of derived models for CPA region and
  validation with driving forces (e.g. GDP,
  population, income) of various IPCC SRES
  scenarios
• Iterative improvement and refinement of the
  derived model

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Expected results

• Main expected results are
• Methodology for quantitative estimation of
  freight transportation demand (ton-km) until 2100
• Projection of freight transportation for CPA
  developing region consistent with IPCC SRES
  scenarios
• Input to SG, MESSAGE models of IIASA

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• THANK YOU!