A synoptic dynamic model of subseasonal variability: Application in real time

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A synoptic dynamic model of subseasonal
variability Application in real time

• Three subseasonal time scales
• The BIG Picture global AAM and the torques
• The time evolution of zonal AAM and role of
  torques
• Baroclinic life cycles, wave breaking and
  baroclinic wave packets
• The synoptic dynamic model
• Tropical diabatic heating/convection/OLR
• Wave-mean flow interaction
• Waves and orographic drag
• Application to recent variations of the
  weather-climate

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Figure 1
MJO 6
MJO 7
MJO 8
MJO 6
MJO 7
MJO 8
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Eq Eq Eq
Relative AAM
Earth AAM
Relative AAM tendency
Mountain torque
Flux convergence
Frictional torque
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250 mb zonal mean u anomaly
10-16 October
16-22 October
90s 60s 30s Eq 30n 60n
90n
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1 sep 11 21 1 0ct 6 11
16 21
flux conv of relative angular momentum
60N 30N
02 sept 10 sept 21 sept 02
oct 12 oct 2004
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L
L
L
H
L
H
L
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H
H
L
H
L
H
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1 sep 11 21 1 oct 11
21 1 6 11 16 21 26 1
6 11 16 21
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Figure 2
Figure 3