Initial meeting, EPSRC CSP

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Initial meeting, EPSRC CSP

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Forecasting and inventory management: Bridging the gap ... Dr Bob Eberlein Ventana Systems, Inc System Dynamics Software. Reviewers Institution Expertise ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Initial meeting, EPSRC CSP

1
Forecasting and inventory management Bridging
the gap
Opening session Aris A. Syntetos and John E.
Boylan
2
Outline
Research background
1
EPSRC EP/D062942/1 (Aris)
2
EPSRC EP/F012632/1 (Aris and John)
3
Agenda for our meeting
4
3
Research background (1 of 3)

Johns research with Roy Johnston in forecasting
and stock control, with particular emphasis on
intermittent demands
Aris PhD under Johns supervision Forecasting
of intermittent demand
Our work necessitated the clarification of what
is intermittent demand in operational terms?

4
Research background (...2 of 3)

Consequent work in the classification of demand
patterns for forecasting and stock control
purposes

Williams (1984)
Eaves and Kingsman (2004)
5
Research background (...3 of 3)

Joint work with John Croston resulted in the
proposal of a theoretically sound categorisation
solutions, for forecasting purposes only

Further work into this area demonstrated the
complexity arising due to the interaction between
forecasting and stock control.

6
EPSRC EP/D062942/1

On the development of theory-informed
operationalised definitions of demand patterns
A simulation intensive investigation that aims at
the development of useful, universally
applicable, rules for classifying demand patterns
Theory-data loops to reflect the complexity of
the problem and the interaction between
forecasting and stock control
We will be talking more about this project later
today Forecasting stock control interactions I
(Aris and Zied)
This is a 2-year project started last October.
Very fruitful research area four papers already
submitted for peer review
John is contributing as part of the project
review team.

7
EP/D062942/1 - Industrial collaborators
Brother International, UK
Computer Science Corporation
Valves Instrument Plus, Ltd
8
Collaboration for Success through People (CSP)

EPSRC call under the CSP initiative for
expanding the scope of curent projects through
the exploitation of inter-disciplinary
opportunities
Funds were made available for people based
activities and exchanges
That resulted in our joint proposal (Aris and
John) that led to our project
This is a 9-month project with no specific
deliverables, other than exploring and hopefully
utilising potential synergies, establishing
longer-term contacts and identifying promising
new avenues for further research
The aim of this project is to bring together the
strengths of statistical and judgemental
forecasting with the complementary benefits of
System Dynamics (SD), to initiate a new research
agenda for inventory modelling.

9
Objectives - EP/F012632/1

The aim is reflected on the following objectives
To explore how statistical forecasting models
(which focus on mean demand and forecast error
variability) and System Dynamics (SD) models
(which focus on changes in mean demand) can be
integrated.
To explore the effects of judgemental forecasting
(or judgemental adjustments to statistical
forecasts) on levels and variability of forecasts
and the potential for their incorporation in
System Dynamics models.
To extend this investigation to examine the
effect on inventory systems, for a range of
inventory policies.
To examine how SD can be used to inform and
educate those involved in judgemental forecasting.

10
Collaborators
Academics Institution Expertise
Professor John Boylan BCUC Co-ordination
team Dr Aris Syntetos Salford
University Co-ordination team Dr Stephen
Disney Cardiff University System Dynamics
Professor Henk Akkermans Tilburg
University System Dynamics Professor Leo
Strijbosch Tilburg University Forecasting/Inven
tory Dr Tarkan Tan Eindhoven
University Inventory Modelling Professor Nada
Sanders Texas Christian Univ. Judgemental
Forecasting Dr S (Vish) Viswanathan Nanyang
University Forecasting/Inventory
Practitioners Company Specialisation Dr
Wolfgang Schutz SAF AG Forecasting
software Dr Stephan Kolassa SAF AG
Forecasting software Dr Bob Eberlein Ventana
Systems, Inc System Dynamics Software
Reviewers Institution Expertise Professor
Paul Goodwin Bath University Judgemental
forecasting Professor Brian Dangerfield Salford
University System Dynamics Supporters Zied
Babai, Mohammad Ali and Mona Mohammadipour
11
Meetings and dissemination

Physical meetings to be conducted between John
and Aris and the other collaborators during the
course of the project
We have also introduced web-based conference
communications in order to i) keep the costs
down ii) introduce some flexibility and the
possibility for ad-hoc virtual meetings
A web-site hosted by the University of Salford
has already been created
We are looking at making this facility an
interactive mode of communicating and posting
ideas
Progressive incorporation of the outcomes of our
meetings, research findings etc
Any ideas that you may have in improving this
facility would be very welcomed
Dissemination of our work through System
Dynamics Review (Wiley) and International Journal
of Production Economics (Elsevier)

12
Initial meeting

One-hour discussion sessions where the group can
be updated on latest developments, reflecting
your perspective and expertise
Open and relaxed discussions allowing the time
for constructive comments to be made and explore
the synergies between the various areas
As we are all often working within fairly well
defined small research communities, basic
questions would not do any harm on the contrary
they may facilitate a better understanding of the
common ground between us
Breakfast is served from 07.30 08.45 am
The dinner tonight is at 07.00 pm

13
Proposed timetable