Milieuschadekosten van luchtverontreining Toegevoegde waarde en beperkingen van de economische analyse

1
Milieuschadekosten van luchtverontreiningToegevo
egde waarde en beperkingen van de economische
analyse

• Leo De Nocker
• 14 maart 2001

2
Agenda

• Achergrond en definities
• Methodologie
• gezondheidseffecten fijn stof
• economische waardering
• broeikaseffect
• onzekerheden
• Voorbeelden van toepassingen
• vergelijking van technologieën elektriciteit,
  transport
• accijnzen voor wegverkeer
• baten van milieumaatregelen scenario analyse
• kosten-baten analyse maatregelen
• Conclusies

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Achtergrond

• Externe kosten alle kosten die niet worden
  gedragen door wie ze veroorzaakt
• Bijv. voor verkeer en transport
• Ongevallen
• Files
• Luchtvervuiling
• In opdracht van, met dank aan
• De Europese Commissie, DG XII
• De Belgische federale overheid (DWTC)
• De Vlaamse overheid (Vliet bis)
• ExernE netwerk

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ExternE project

• ExternE Externe kosten van Energie
• Onderzoeksproject EC, Joule, 1991-2000
• ExternE netwerk 50 wetenschappelijke
  Instituten van verschillende disciplines in alle
  EU landen VS.

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ExternE Methodologie

• Wordt door VITO toegepast en verder ontwikkeld.
• Resultaten voor
• Elektriciteit België
• Transport België
• Energiegebruik Vlaanderen (Draft, 2001)
• Wordt gebruikt door
• Europese overheden m.b.t. beleid luchtkwaliteit
• UN-ECE Göteborg protocol
• Vlaamse overheid (Mira S, SMER )
• Electriciteitssector (Electrabel, Europa)
• nationale regionale studies
• Wereldbank, EBRD,

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Toepassingen

• Milieuschadekosten zijn een monetaire indicator
  van milieu-impacts die kunnen gebruikt worden
• om verschillende milieu-impacts samen te vatten
  en te wegen in één enkele indicator.
• Om verschillende technologieën, lokaties,
  brandstoffen ed. te vergelijken.
• Emissies naar lucht
• Directe impacts zoals geluid
• in kosten-baten analyses van beleidsopties
• kosten-baten van emissiereducties
• taxering van brandstoffen, nieuwe technologiën
• internalisatie van externe kosten

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Agenda

• Achergrond en definities
• Methodologie
• impact pathway analyse
• gezondheidseffecten fijn stof
• economische waardering
• broeikaseffect
• onzekerheden
• Voorbeelden van toepassingen
• vergelijking van technologieën elektriciteit,
  transport
• accijnzen voor wegverkeer
• baten van milieumaatregelen scenario analyse
• kosten-baten analyse maatregelen
• Conclusies

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De schadefunctie methode
ExternE detailed bottom up modelling work
LCIA Top down simplified analysis
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De schadefunctie methode
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Economic valuation

• Valuation based on societal preferences, measured
  by means of willingness to pay of the individuals
  (man in the street ) for environmental goods or
  services
• differs from valuation schemes based on e.g.
  expert judgements or policy decisions
• Willingness to pay is measured by
• Revealed preferences
• market prices
• prices from related markets e.g. differences in
  house prices for a less noisy neighbourhood
• Stated preferences
• Contingent Valuation questionnaire approaches

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non welfare-based methods
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Different type of values
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Which tool for which value type
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Discounting

• Difficult issue in welfare economics
• No reason to use different discount rates for
  environment then for similar policy questions
• No agreement on one best social discount rate to
  use
• so we use a set of discount rates
• Discount rate has different components
• discount rate time preference opportunity
  cost of capital
• within one generation 1 and 3
• future generations no time preference 0 to
  1.5

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Bestudeerde polluenten impacts
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Afbakening van impacts
naar ruimte
naar tijd
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Externe kosten per ton polluent
100
ecosystemen
80
landbouw
60
materialen
Morbiditeit
40
Mortaliteit
20
0
SO2
NOx-direct
Deeltjes
NOx-ozon
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Overview of impacts covered 1

• Air pollutants detailed assessment and
  valuation for
• Public Health dominant impact category, shows
  the importance of impacts from particles,
  aerosols and other pollutants on public
  health, for some quantification remains
  uncertain

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Impacts on public health

• Air pollution kills ?
• acute and mid term impacts form very small
  particles on mortality
• relevant for PM, ammonium sulphates and nitrates
• based on epidemiological studies
• Relative big impacts
• linear dose-effect function
• no threshold at population level
• small increments x large population affected
  large impact for PM
• Big uncertainties for mortality impacts from PM
• biological mechanism ?
• is PM 2.5 and particle mass the right indicator
  for a mix of pollut. ?
• Quantification (esp. chronic mortality )
• monetary valuation

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Valuation of public health impacts

• Morbidity
• cost of illness (market prices ) labour loss
  suffering (questionnaire studies)
• data available for all endpoints
• smaller impacts are very important
• consistent with DALY approach
• Mortality
• we do not value life, but a change in risk of
  dying earlier
• a lot of studies on value of a statistical life
  mid estimate for EU is 3.4 million EURO 140 X
  GDP/capita
• for air pollution impacts the right approach is
  to value the years of life lost . Value of a year
  of life lost in ExternE 100.000 Euro
• issues not accounted for age dependent (?),
  context, quality of life years lost
• more specific studies are needed, aimed at air
  pollution issues

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Overview of impacts covered 1

• Air pollutants detailed assessment and
  valuation for
• Public Health dominant impact category, shows
  the importance of impacts from particles,
  aerosols and other pollutants on public
  health, for some quantification remains
  uncertain
• Agriculture not controversial but not complete
  (valuable crops)
• Materials not complete, (soiling, stock at
  risk, historic buildings)
• Ozone impacts hard to model, big difference
  between marginal and aggregated analysis (for
  NOx for Belgium )
• Ecological impacts impacts on critical loads
  can be quantified, but impacts hard be
  monetise and data transfer

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Overview of impacts covered 2

• Global Warming positive and negative impacts
  range of data is available, large
  uncertainties, importance of assumptions bl
  anks not all impacts-categories are
  included, data limited to impacts to 2100 or
  2200
• Water and soil, some air pollutants
• Exposure assessment, Toxicity rankings and expert
  panel valuation
• As our understanding chances, data need to be
  updated
• Comparisons between pollutants, impacts may be
  difficult
• Combine valuation with sustainability indicators

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Lokale versus regionale impacts
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Uncertainty analysis

• Types of uncertainty
• Parametric uncertainty of models, dose-response
  functions,
• add lower and upper boundaries
• uncertainty in emissions, traffic data
• monte carlo analysis
• transferability and applicability of data, d-r
  functions,
• sensitivity analysis
• importance of blanks in the analysis
• add sustainability indicators
• Uncertainty in policy studies
• stratified uncertainty analysis

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Agenda

• Achergrond en definities
• Methodologie
• gezondheidseffecten fijn stof
• economische waardering
• broeikaseffect
• onzekerheden
• Voorbeelden van toepassingen
• vergelijking van technologieën elektriciteit,
  transport
• accijnzen voor wegverkeer
• baten van milieumaatregelen scenario analyse
• kosten-baten analyse maatregelen
• Conclusies

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Vergelijking brandstofcycli meth 98
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Vergelijking met kWh prijs meth 98
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Onzekerheidsanalyse totale onzekerheid
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Onzekerheidsanalyse stratified uncertainty
analysis
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Onzekerheid actualisatie resultaten
Vergelijking brandstofcycli en technologie meth
2000
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Onzekerheid actualisatie resultaten
Vergelijking externe kost met marktprijs meth
2000
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Results vehicle and fuel related factors
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Impacts hangen af van het traject
Externe kosten per voertuig kilometer
Van Brussels naar Luik
Stad 28 km/h
Snelweg 110 km/h
Stad 28 km/h
14
Brussel, centrum
12
Borgerhout
10
8
Eurocent/voertuig.km
Luik, centrum
Leuven
6
Roccourt
4
Ring
Awans
Bertem
Tienen
Berloz
2
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
kilometer
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Invloed bronparameters hoge schouwen België
(ExternE 98)
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Milieuschadekosten en accijns op diesel
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Milieuschadekosten van wegtransport personen 98
- 2010
Totaal BAU
Euro0
1.6
Euro1
1.4
Euro2
Euro3
1.2
Euro4
1
0.8
Euro (miljard)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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Milieuschadekosten van wegtransport vrachtwagens
98 - 2010
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Goederentransportvgl. van de verschillende modi,
gebruiksfase
Diesel trein
1.8
(gemiddelde)
Diesel truck
1.6
geluid (Infras IWW 2000)
gt32t Euro 2
1.4
Electr.(fossiele mix)
1.2
Klimaat
1
CO
Binnenschepen
0.8
Carcinogenen
Elektrische
Eurocent/ton.km
Kempenaar Duwvaart
0.6
Sulfaten
trein
SO2
0.4
Nitraten
0.2
PM2.5
0
ozon
-0.2
-0.4
Spoorweg
Willekeurig traject
E17 snelweg
Gent-Lokeren
Antwerpen-Gent
Traject
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Goederentransportvgl. van de verschillende modi
1
Goederentreinen
Truck
Diesel Elektrisch
Euro2
0.75
373 ton 430 ton
16 ton
Binnenschepen
Kempenaar Duwvaart
Infrastructuur
550 ton 10800 ton
Eurocent/ton.km
0.5
Voertuig cyclus
Brandstof cyclus
Gebruiksfase
0.25
0
Herentals-Mol
Willekeurigtraject
Landelijke weg
Albert kanaal
Albert kanaal
Herentals
Herentals
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Conclusions on air pollution

• Air pollution Externalities of transport can be
  significantthe total annual environmental air
  pollution damage cost of Belgian passenger
  traffic is estimated to be about 1.25 of GDP.
• primary and secondary particles are the dominant
  source of impacts,
• 2010 air quality problem solved ?
• PM no threshold what is the acceptable level ?
• Is particle mass the right indicator ?
• Impacts not quantified will remain important
• acidification and eutrofication above critical
  loads for Belgium
• ozone peak levels controlled but not the
  background level
• global warming
• Uncertainty analysis
• other methods, sustainability indicators needed

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Baten voor MIRA S
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ruimtelijke spreiding impacts
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Milieuschadekosten luchtverontreining 1998
Vlaanderen , mia BF
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Baten van maatregelen van MIRA S
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Baten van maatregelen van MIRA S
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Milieuschadekosten luchtverontreining 1998
Vlaanderen , mia BF
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Conclusions on air pollution

• Air pollution Externalities of transport can be
  significantthe total annual environmental air
  pollution damage cost of Belgian passenger
  traffic is estimated to be about 1.25 of GDP.
• primary and secondary particles are the dominant
  source of impacts,
• 2010 air quality problem solved ?
• PM no threshold what is the acceptable level ?
• Is particle mass the right indicator ?
• Impacts not quantified will remain important
• acidification and eutrofication above critical
  loads for Belgium
• ozone peak levels controlled but not the
  background level
• global warming
• Uncertainty analysis
• other methods, sustainability indicators needed

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Onzekerheidsanalyse stratified uncertainty
analysis
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Cost benefit analysis SO2 abatement
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Cost benefit of air pollution in Europe

• A combination of sustainability indicators
  (critical loads ) and environmental benefits for
  public health was used to assess costs and
  benefits for the new protocol on long range air
  pollution in Europe.
• Context multi-pollutant - multi effect analysis
• The costs to reduce around 50 of the exceedance
  of critical loads for acidification,
  eutrophication and ozone
• were compared with the public health benefits in
  monetary terms of these measures (mostly PM
  related benefits)
• For most countries benefits gt costs
• Cost benefit analysis based on stratified
  uncertainty analysis
• Future include PM analysis in multi-pollutant
  protocols
• Need other ways to take account of sustainability
  indicators

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Conclusions on cost benefit analysis

• Benefit estimation to use or not to use ?
• For a number of air pollutants, data are
  available
• based on state of the art of our understanding
  of issues
• and they offer added value for decision making
• there are important blanks (esp. ecological
  impacts) and uncertainties
• Data should not be used as a black box figure
• uncertainty sensitivity analysis in function of
  context of use
• data can be completed, but not mixed-up, with
  other indicators

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conclusies milieu-economie

• Vraag naar identificatie en kwantificatie van de
  baten van milieubeleid is terecht,
• en brengt vooral duidelijkheid in het debat,
• ook over de grenzen van ons weten
• Veel vragen draaien rond wat we willen betalen
  voor de beheersing van risicos van
  milieuverontreinging
• en (milieu-)economie kan hier nog verder een
  bijdrage brengen