Seismic Eruption - forecasting future earthquakes

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Seismic Eruption - forecasting future earthquakes
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• Since my first attachment to seismology, I have
  had a horror of predictions and of predictors.
  Journalists and the general public rush to any
  suggestion of earthquake prediction like hogs
  toward a full trough.
• - Charles Richter (1977)

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Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult
the past

• Turn to you partner and discuss this statement
• What does it mean?
• Provide an example where it applies
• Could this statement connect to earthquakes? How?

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Additional functionality

• Has numerous preset views,
• Investigate global and regional geohazards
• Explore Plate Tectonics via cross-sectional
  perspective views of earthquake locations
• Is also very customizable
• Make your own map
• Terrain files
• Event files

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Looking for seismicity patternsSteps

• Select a region of the world that is of interest
  to you by making your own map
• Interrogate the EQ catalogue to determine the
  number of various sized events that occur
  annually for your region. (Use M 0.5 intervals)
• See Tab 9
• Plot this information on the graph provided (or
  use Excel)

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Questions

• Do you see any patterns or trends in earthquake
  occurrence in your region?
• Can you think of any reasons why the trend may be
  flat for small magnitudes?
• What is the likelihood that an earthquake of
  magnitude 7.0 or greater (which can cause severe
  damage) will occur in the next year in your
  region?
• How might this information be useful to society?
• Is there a risk for forecasting earthquake
  likelihood using a data set that only goes back
  to 1960?

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Questions

• What is the likelihood that an earthquake of
  magnitude 7.0 or greater will occur in the next
  year in the 2 regions?
• How might this information be useful to society?
• Is there a risk for forecasting earthquake
  likelihood using a data set that only goes back
  to 1973?

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Are the numbers of earthquakes in the smallest
and largest ranges consistent with the trends in
the other regions? Can you think of any reasons
why the trend is flat for small and also large
magnitudes?
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2002 National Seismic Hazard Map
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Although we cant predict earthquakes (in the
sense of predicting a specific time, location and
magnitude) Earthquake Hazard Analysis
Global Seismic Hazard Map
We can estimate the probability that a given
amount of ground shaking will occur during a
given period of time at some location.
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Summary

• Accommodates student interests by allowing them
  to define the temporal spatial limits of their
  study.
• Simple, easily acquired data set
• Explores the broad topics that lead to a general
  understanding of frequency and distribution of
  earthquakes
• Engages students in the process of science
• Making observations
• Collecting empirical data
• Exploring the limitation of the data
• Organization, graphing and analyzing the data
• Developing logical arguments to support
  conclusions
• Skeptical review of other students work

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Guiding Content Questions

• Where do earthquakes occur?
• How frequently do earthquakes occur?
• How frequently do various sized earthquakes
  occur?
• How does regional tectonics affect distribution
  and frequency?
• Can past history of Earthquake occurrence
  predict future occurrences?

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Skills Emphasized

• Making observations
• Creating a semi-log graph
• Interpreting and identifying patterns in data.
• Drawing conclusions
• Prediction and hypothesis testing
• Writing a lab report or creating a poster