What kind of doctors will patients need in the future

1
What kind of doctors will patients need in the
future?

• Andy Knapton
• Data Modelling Manager

2
Objectives

• WRT
• Workforce planning
• Medical student expectations
• Future medical training opportunities

3
Galvanising workforce thinking

• WRT is a group of dedicated healthcare workforce
  planners who provide objective modelling,
  analysis and evidence-based recommendations in
  order to enable patient-centred and clinically
  driven strategic decision making across the
  healthcare workforce

4
Evolution of WRT

• October 1999 established as the Specialty
  Workforce Advisory Group (SWAG) Specialty Review
  Team
• 2001 renamed Medical Workforce Review Team
  (MWRT)
• 2003 became the Workforce Review Team (WRT)
• 2004 hosting transferred to Hampshire and IOW
  SHA from a local trust
• From July 2006 South Central SHA agreed to host
• SLA with the Department of Health

5
Who are these experts?

• Director Dr Judy Curson
• Professional advisors
• Expert consultants and
• contractors
• Data modellers
• Information analysts
• Communications team
• Operations team

6
Workforce planning process

• WRT supports workforce decision making for 10
  SHAs in England
• Review of supply and demand for 150 specialties
  and professions
• Qualitative assessment of demographic,
  socio-economic and lifestyle factors
• Quantitative analysis of training requirements
• Key trends and national priorities for workforce
  planning
• Annual Assessment of Workforce Priorities

7
WRT annual process
WRT information gathering process (Nov - Apr)
Assessment of Workforce Priorities (AWP)
Care area reports produced
Feedback findings (Autumn)
8
Paws
9
Need, Demand, Supply
10
Three Axiomsof workforce planning

• Axiom 1
• You cant predict workforce needs
• if you cant predict the future
• of the health care system

11
Three Axiomsof workforce planning

• Axiom 2
• You cant predict the future
• of the health care system

12
Three Axiomsof workforce planning

• Axiom 3
• Workforce planners
• should be admired
• for the risks they take

13
2009 Recruitment

• ST1/CT1 Round 1 Posts 6,730
• FTSTA1 Round 1 Posts 107
• Foundation Programme Applicants 5,862
• Foundation Programme Applications 19,895
• All recruitment figures for English recruitment
  only

14
Recruitment Monitoring

• Please remember the analysis is only as good as
  the data provided
• Current level v current post
• Period in post
• Multiple acceptances

15
2009 ST1 Level Posts
16
2009 ST1 Level Posts Applications of FPs
17
2009 ST1 Level Posts by UoA
18
2009 ST1 Level Posts and Applications of FPs by
UoA
19
Paws
20
Supply modelling
21
Participation
22
UK Medical School Intake
23
Participation at current rates
24
Participation at 60
25
General Surgery
Av. Annual recruitment 130
26
TO
Av. Annual recruitment 130
27
ENT
Av. Annual recruitment 40
28
Urology
Av. Annual recruitment 40
29
Renal Medicine
Av. Annual recruitment 40
30

31
Age Profile of GPs
32
(No Transcript)
33
GP Recruitment Plans

• 50 of doctors entering specialist training will
  be GPs
• 2009 2700
• 2010 3000
• 2011 3300

34
Take Aways

• Need to work on expectations of FP graduates for
• Speciality
• Geography
• But how without losing them?
• WRT are able and willing to help
• What would you like us to do?

35
CONTACTwww.wrt.nhs.uk