Operational Monitoring and Forecasting in the Aegean Sea

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• Operational Monitoring and Forecasting in the
  Aegean Sea
• Kostas Nittis
• National Centre for Marine Research, Athens,
  Greece

• Review of existing monitoring and forecasting
  systems
• Present capabilities
• Problems - Limitations
• Perspectives

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Overview
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Research efforts on O.O.

• POSEIDON Project (1997-2000, 14.1 Meuro
  EFTAHMNE)
• Integrated monitoring and forecasting system
  real-time data from buoy network, daily
  forecasts, end-user products
• Partners NCMR, ?CEANOR, UoA, UoT, NTUA
• Operational since May 2000
• MFS (1998-2001, 2002-2004) Development of
  multiparametric M3A station, VOS Measurements,
  High resolution regional and coastal models
• MARSAIS (2001-2003) Synergy between SAR and buoy
  data, Validation of Algorithms, Detection and
  forecasting of oil-spills
• FerryBox (2002-2005) Implementation of a
  European network for FerryBox measurements,
  Operational phase 2002-2003
• MAMA (2002-2004) Coordination on Mediterranean
  Scale, Capacity building, MERSEA (2002-2003)
  Towards GMES (2008)

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The POSEIDON buoy network

• SeaWatch Buoys
• Meteorological Sensors
• Air Temperature
• Atm. Pressure
• Wind Speed/Direction
• Blue Sensors
• Temperature
• Salinity
• Current
• Waves
• Green Sensors
• Dissolved Oxygen
• Chlorophyll-A
• Light Attenuation
• Radioactivity

• Height 7.9 m
• Width 1.75 m
• Weight 900 kgr
• Energy Solar panels batteries
• Communication Imarsat C, GSM every 3 hours

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End-user products
www.poseidon.ncmr.gr

• POSEIDON Products
• On-line data (meteo, blue and green)
• Processed Data (statistics etc.)
• Meteorological Forecasts
• Sea-State Forecasts (waves)
• Hydrodynamic model Forecasts (currents, T,S)
• Dispersion of Pollutants (oil-spills)
• Near-shore wave conditions

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Surface circulation characteristics
Nittis et al., GAOS 2002
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High frequency variability
Nittis et al., MPB 2001
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Tracing of Water Masses
Nittis et al., GAOS 2002
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Spring bloom monitoring
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The ?3? System
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M3A Measurements
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M3A Measurements
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Limiting factors Bio-fouling
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Ferry Box Systems
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Operational Models POSEIDON (1st generation)

• Based on DAUT model (2d generation)
• Resolution 5km
• Buoy data assimilation
• Products Height, Direction and Period fields

• Based on POM
• Resolution 5km, 31lev
• Rivers and Dardanelles outflow simulation
• Products 3-D Velocity, Temperature and Salinity
  fields

• Based on ETA LAM
• Resolution 20/10 km
• Products Wind, Air temperature, Relative
  Humidity, Precipitation, Cloud cover, Atm.
  Pressure, Fog,

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New generation Wave Model (WAM)

• Mediterranean Wave Model
• Based on WAM
• Resolution 0.25 o
• Forced by the coarse (20km) atmospheric model

• Aegean Wave Model
• Nested to Mediterranean model
• Resolution 0.05 o
• Forced by the fine (10km) atmospheric model

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New Generation HD Model

• Eastern Mediterranean Model
• Based on POM
• Resolution 10 km
• Vertical Res. 19 sigma levels
• Forced by the coarse (20km) atmospheric model
• Dardanelle's (open boundary) / Rivers
  Parameterisation

• Initial boundary values MODB
• 12 years climatology, 95-99 ECMWF analysis,
  operational 1999-now
• Interactive estimation of fluxes (heat-water)

• Aegean Sea Model
• Nested to EMED model
• Resolution 5 km
• Vertical Res. 31 s-levels
• Forced by the fine (10km) atmospheric model
• Boundary values updated every 1h (T, S, U, V, W,
  Z free radiation)

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Forecasting Skill Evaluation a) Buoy data
M 24 hours forecasts O Buoy observations
Atmospheric Model Statistics
Model Against Buoy data
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Forecasting Skill Evaluation b) XBT data
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Forecasting Skill Eval. c) mesoscale features
Forecasted Sea Level Elevation during Summer 2000
AVHRR SST
SST 1 October 2000 24h forecast
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POSEIDON Operational Oil-spill Model

• Based on PARCEL model (Koutitas 1988, Johansen
  1985)
• Processes
• Evaporation (Stiver et al. 1989)
• Emulsification (Rasmussen 1985)
• Beaching and sedimentation (Gundlach 1987)
• Advection diffusion
• 3-D current field
• Horizontal and vertical mixing coefficients from
  hydrodynamic model (Smagorinsky, Mellor-Yamada)
• Wave field
• Additional data
• Date and the position of the event
• Initial volume of the pollutant
• Density of the different elements
• Evacuation time
• (Density of evaporation and emulsification,
  retention time)
• Products

Pollani et al., MPB 2000
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Synergy with SAR data oil slicks detection

• Synthetic Aperture Radar
• ERS1/2, RADARSAT, ENVISAT
• 0,056 µm, 5,3 GHz
• Repeat cycle 35 days
• Resolution 30m
• Swath width 100 km (400km Envisat)

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Towards forecasting in Coastal Areas

• Saronikos Gulf Model
• Resolution 1.8 km
• Vertical Res. 16 s-levels
• Forced by the fine (10km) atmospheric model
• Nested to Aegean 5km model Initial boundary
  conditions
• Boundary values updated every 1h (T, S, U, V, W,
  Z free radiation)

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Next steps ?

• Extend the current observing capacity
• Deeper layers (0-500 / 0-1000m)
• New platforms (eg HF radars)
• Operational RS products
• Continue / Intensify efforts in coastal areas
• Coordinate efforts with pan-european monitoring
  and forecasting efforts Towards GMES
• (GMES Forum, EuroGOOS conference 3-6 December,
  Athens)