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Roots of the Crisis

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Roots of the Crisis. Tim Beal. School of Marketing and International Business ... Fearful of rapprochement between NK and SK, and NK and Japan. Bush and China ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Roots of the Crisis


1
Roots of the Crisis
  • Tim Beal
  • School of Marketing and International Business
  • ASI roundtable 18 May 2005
  • http//www.vuw.ac.nz/caplabtb/beal.html

2
Roots
  • Wide as well as deep
  • Need to look beyond immediate actors
  • Europe, Russia, etc gtgtgtUS
  • US policy in East Asia
  • Key to understanding present situation
  • Complexity
  • Internal and external contesting forces

3
1945
  • Fearful of Asian nationalism, Japanese socialism
    US changed mind and kept Emperor system in Japan
  • Japan not denazified
  • Continuity of elite
  • Did not come to terms with past in Asia
  • Symbolized by Yasukuni shrine
  • War dead including war criminals
  • Official visits (eg Koizumi) cause outcry in
    China and Koreas

4
US inheritance
  • US saw itself as benign successor to
    European/Japanese empires
  • Eg Vietnam
  • 1945 Peace Constitution forces on Japan 1950s
    Japan allowed to rearm as counterbalance to China
  • Focus on China
  • 1950s war with China in Korea
  • 1960s vicarious war in Vietnam
  • 1970s Kissinger plays China card

5
China card
  • US comes to terms with China in order to defeat
    Soviet Union
  • Successful, but unforeseen consequence
  • Taking pressure off China allowed it to open up,
    move to fast economic growth
  • Now China challenges US
  • Displacing US as major trading partner for East
    Asian economies

6
Clinton gtgtBush
  • Clinton, initially hostile, forced into
    partnership
  • Also signed Agreed Framework with North Korea
  • Bush tore up Agreed Framework, reignited crisis
  • Fearful of rapprochement between NK and SK, and
    NK and Japan

7
Bush and China
  • Economics cooperation and competition
  • China major holder of US treasury bonds, trading
    partner
  • Common front with China and Russia against
    Islamic nationalism
  • Xinjiang, Chechnya, the world
  • Anti-China policy ascendant
  • Esp. with Rice

8
Anti-China policy
  • Renewed US-Japan alliance at core
  • Now covers Taiwan
  • Japanese remilitarisation speeding up
  • Domestic forces
  • Fuelled by contrived crisis with North Korea
  • US pressure
  • Scrap Peace Constitution
  • Support US in Iraq, etc

9
Japanese remilitarisation
  • Despite constitution Japan has
  • 4th or 3rd largest arms budget in world
  • Largest destroyer fleet, many strike aircraft
  • Growing aerospace capability
  • Troops further afield than at height of Japanese
    empire
  • Large nuclear industry ability to weaponise
    quickly

10
Two alliances
  • US-Japan
  • Taiwan? Overtures to China
  • South Korea? Moving towards China, hostile to
    Japan
  • China
  • First joint military exercises with Russia
  • North Korea, South KoreaSoutheast Asia

11
Dangers
  • Democracy gtgt upsurge in popular feeling,
    demagoguery from politicians, non state actors
  • NK bomb gtgt Japanese bomb gtgt arms race
  • Some in Washington
  • Japanese bomb to counterbalance China
  • Sap China (and Japan?) with arms race
  • If war with China inevitable, then better sooner
    than later
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