Lissabontraktatens skbne

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• OVERBLIK
• Den irske proces
• 1. Opinionsrapport bestilt af regeringen
• om baggrunden for det irske nej.
• 2. DER konklusioner juni og okt. 2008
• 3. rapport fra underudvalg i Irlands
• parlament med et løseligt bud på
• Irlands krav
• Det franske formandskabs rolle og Det Europæiske
  Råds møde 11.-12. dec.
• 1. Kommissionens størrelse og udnævnelse.
• 2. Tidspunktet for folkeafstemning
• 3. øvrige forsikringer

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbner

• Afstemningsresultat
• Nej 28 af vælgerne
• Ja 25 af vælgerne
• Stemte ikke 47 af vælgerne

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne
Post Lisbon Treaty Referendum Reseasrch
Findings September 2008
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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• Lack of knowledge/understanding
• Main reason for abstention was lack of
  understanding/knowledge (47 af de, der afstod
  fra at stemme
• The main reason for voting No was lack of
  knowledge/understanding (42 af de, der stemte
  nej)
• At a wider level, an EU knowledge deficit is
  clearly present which has undoubtedly contributed
  to the No vote. This was evidenced in both the
  opinion poll and the focus group research.
  Knowledge of EU institutions and how they work
  appears to be particularly low. The difficulty of
  advocating a referendum that is based on the
  premise of an institutional reform in this
  environment is evident.

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne
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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne
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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne
Citater fra fokusgrupper
I think they just launched something that nobody
could understand you had to go with your gut I
think Hard Yes, Female
Its an awful thing to say but I was completely
confused between the two. I felt listening to
one politician one day expounding about all the
benefits of voting Yes, you kind of say, yeah, I
can see that, and then you listen to someone
else talking about the No campaign. Hard No,
Female
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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• Delkonklusioner i rapporten
• Across all focus groups the level of
  understanding of the Lisbon Treaty is best
  described as fairly poor
• Frustration was the most common emotion in the
  focus groups. Many People had made effeorts to
  understand the implications of ratification but
  could not find the answers they were looking for
  it was too complex and confusing. Anger was also
  commonly expressed.
• Confusion was the prevailing theme. Many were
  repeatedly swayed in different directions due to
  what they described as conflicting evidence.Panic
  was also evident in some cases.

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne
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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne
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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne
Citater fra fokusgrupper

• They got bogged down in the detail whereas they
  should have early on given a synopsis of what it
  was, theres no need to be bothering with the
  details. Hard Yes, Male
• I said Id have a go at it (The Referendum
  Commission Booklet) to get more knowledge but
  being honest, I said oh my God, thats too
  complicated. Hard Yes, Female
• They couldnt tell us why it was good for us,
  nobody was able to tell me this, and believe me,
  I tried, nobody was able to tell me Conflict
  Group, Female

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• Nejet var ikke udtryk for en negativ vurdering
  af Irlands medlemskab
• Positiv holdning til at Irland fortsat skal være
  fuldt medlem af EU
• 60 af hele vælgerkorpset
• 68 af ja-stemmerne
• 53 af nej-stemmerne
• Kun 17-18 ønsker mindre involvering

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• Konklusioner
• En kompliceret (institutionel) traktat fænger
  ikke.
• Det er TV/radio, der tæller.
• Neutral information fænger ikke.
• Vælgerne bliver frustrerede, hvis de skal at
  stemme, hvis emner er komplekst men også hvis
  de snydes for en folkeafsemnng.

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne
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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• Vigtige emner i vælgerkorpsets syn på EU
• Undgå overdreven EU-regulering
• Arbejdstagerrettigheder
• Neutralitet
• Bevare indflydelse i EU
• Abort
• Tab af en irsk kommissær

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• Det irske parlaments underudvalgs rapport
• Formål at skabe enighed mellem ja-partierne om
  linien.
• BgrænsningerIkke krænke regeringens
  udenrigspolitiske prærogativ, læs ikke skabe så
  meget enighed, at det bliver til borgfred.

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• The challenge
• Irelands standing and influence in the EU have
  diminished following the peoples decision not to
  ratify the Lisbon Treaty.
• It is ...likely that a mechanism will be
  devoloped by other Member states which allow them
  to proceed with a process of further integration
  which excludes Ireland
• .. Seriously damage Irelands competitiveness in
  attracting foreign direct investment.
• The perception that Ireland is moving away from
  the core of Europe has the potential to affect
  its standing and credibility with the UN in its
  work to maintain international peace and
  security

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• Issues
• Maintaining control over direct taxation policy
  is vital. That control is not affected by the
  Lisbon-Treaty.
• EU should continue to develop the social market
  economy. Ireland should focus on workers right
  and sustainable economic growth
• Member States policies in areas of social and
  ethical sentitivities should continue to be
  respected. Subsidiarity and respecting the limits
  of EU competence should be respected
• Any practical measure that demonstrates that
  Irish neutrality is and continue to be protected
  and respected should be considered
• Having a Commissioner nominated by the
  Government appears a matter af national
  sensitivity.... and would also offer legitimacy
  to the Commission

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• Options
• The Subcommittee has concerns about any opt-outs.
  It points to the Danish experience
• The sub-committee has strong concerns about
  options that could lead to ireland being on an
  outer or second tier of the EU. Catastrophic for
  ireland
• A solution must be found that keeps Ireland at
  the heart of Europewhile respecting the
  democratic will of the people by arranging for
  these concerns to be accomodated

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Lissabon-trakttens skæbne

• Herudover
• Bedre generel information om EU og bedre
  skoleundervisning herom
• Mere kontrol med regeringens optræden i EU
  (britisk model).

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Lissabon-traktatense skæbne

• III. Det Europæiske Råds møde 11.12. dec.
• 1. Generel ramme for løsning
• Ingen genforhandling
• Ingen nye ratifikationer
• DER Konklusioner oktober 2008
• DER besluttede at vende tilbage til spørgsmålet
  på mødet i december 2008 med henblik på at
  definere elementer til en løsning og en fælles
  vej frem.

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Lissabon-traktatens skæbne

• Hvad kan Det Europæiske Råd beslutte?
• Tre Hovedpunkter
• Tidspunkt for traktatens ikrafttræden/folke-afstem
  ningen
• Kommissionen under Lissabon og Nice
• Indhold og retlig form for andre forsikringer
• Cowen EU skal respektere de irlandske vælgeres
  bekymringer, og det skal ske i en robust legal
  form