Introduction to Foresight for STI Policy Making Dr. Michael Keenan PREST, University of Manchester,

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Introduction to Foresight for STI Policy Making
Dr. Michael KeenanPREST, University of
Manchester, UKSTI Policy Conference, Vilnius,
LithuaniaDecember 2005
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Outline

• Defining Foresight
• A brief history of national Foresight exercises
• Uses of Foresight
• Shape and scope of Foresight exercises
• Additional resources

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What do we mean by Foresight?

• Martin (1995)- Foresight is the process
  involved in systematically attempting to look
  into the longer-term future of science,
  technology, the economy and society with the aim
  of identifying the areas of strategic research
  and the emerging generic technologies likely to
  yield the greatest economic and social benefits.
• Georghiou (1996)- Foresight is a systematic
  means of assessing those scientific and
  technological developments which could have a
  strong impact on industrial competitiveness,
  wealth creation and quality of life.

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Forecasting, Planning, and Foresight

• Foresight can use forecasts, as well as
  contribute to planning, but it should not be
  confused with either activity.
• Forecasting tends to assume that there is one
  probable future, whereas Foresight assumes that
  there are numerous possible futures, and that the
  future is in fact there to be created through the
  actions we choose to take today.
• As for Planning, Foresight time horizons should
  be beyond the usual planning period. Time
  horizons will vary depending upon the issue or
  sector under consideration and the needs of the
  target audience. Time horizons typically vary
  between 5-30 years, but they may be even longer
  in some instances

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Five essential elements

• Anticipation and projections of long-term
  developments
• Interactive and participative methods of debate
  and analysis
• Forging new social networks
• Elaboration of strategic visions based on a
  shared sense of commitment
• Implications for present-day decisions and actions

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Above all else Foresight is a social technology
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Modern Foresight family tree(National exercises)

• From 1970 Japanese Science and Technology Agency
  began periodic 30 year forecasts
• French initiatives in early 1980s
• Dutch began activity in 1989
• US Congress established Critical Technologies
  Institute in 1991
• German and UK exercises major milestones
• Major upsurge during 1990s, especially in Western
  Europe and East Asia
• 2000 EU Candidate Countries and Latin America

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Mutual policy learning selective national
ST foresight chronology
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Common aims of Foresight

• Vision-building for direction-setting
• Determining priorities
• Anticipatory intelligence
• Informing debate and building understanding
• Increasing involvement
• Building social capital
• Advocacy
• Consensus-generation

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Being clear on Rationales and Objectives

• Need to be clear on why you are embarking upon
  Foresight. What are the problems and challenges?
  And can Foresight help to address these? This
  clarity should extend to the formulation of clear
  (and hopefully) widely shared objectives
• Rationales tend to underpin three general sets of
  objectives
• Often more locally-specific objectives too

• Creation of visions and/or priority-setting
• Better wired innovation systems
• Development of a Foresight culture

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Examples of policy problems and how foresight
might help
Lack of funding for STI
Brain drain
Disconnection of STI from socio- economic problems
Links STI to wider issues signalling its relevance
Creative and disturbing encouraging innovation
Disconnection of science from innovation
Short-term thinking
Low industrial STI intensity
Little interdisciplinarity
Discursive enabling strategic conversations
Participative bringing in new perspectives
Forward-looking building future-proofing and
agility
System linkages failures
Builds consensus increasing likelihood of
implementation
Weak STI planning capabilities
Transparent structured process providing
legitimate priorities
Implementation failures
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But foresight in no panacea! You need to be
realistic as to what it can achieve!
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What does a Foresight exercise look like?

• Many shapes and sizes!
• Common aspects experts, panels, project team,
  fixed budget and time, sponsor, reporting and
  recommendations
• Typical variations methodological
  sophistication, degree of participation, budget
  and time available, time horizon, coverage,
  organisational configuration, etc.

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Starting levels for Foresight(Not mutually
exclusive)

• Territorial National (most visible),
  Sub-national (regional, city-region /
  municipality), Supranational (bilateral,
  multilateral, International Organisation), Global
• Domain economic, social, environmental,
  technology, scientific discipline
• Alternative starting points
• Flows (e.g. rivers, pollutants, people, traffic,
  goods and services, etc.)
• Networks (e.g. people, organisations,
  infrastructures, etc.)
• Markets (e.g. goods, services, labour)

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Who sponsors / carries out foresight exercises?

• Ministries and other government agencies
• Research Councils
• Academies of Science and other research
  institutes
• Universities
• Regional Development Agencies
• Industry Clusters
• Large companies
• Industry Federations
• Private Foundations
• Essentially, virtually any organisation can
  sponsor a foresight exercise

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Resources

• EC Foresight Unit www.cordis.lu/foresight
• ForLearn Foresight support http//forlearn.jrc.es
  
• European Foresight Monitoring Network
  www.efmn.info
• eForesee Project www.eforesee.info
• National Foresight examples
• UK www.foresight.gov.uk
• Germany www.futur.de

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Thank you!Dr. Michael KeenanPREST, University
of Manchester, UKFurther enquiries
atMichael.Keenan_at_manchester.ac.uk