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Changing Age Features of the Rocky Mountain West Population

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Title: Changing Age Features of the Rocky Mountain West Population


1
Changing Age Features of the Rocky Mountain West
Population The chart shows population counts by
single ages for persons under 1 year of age up to
age 84 for the last two Censuses 1990 and 2000.
The figures in the chart combine state totals
for the five Rocky Mountain states. Population
growth in the period was concentrated among
adults between their late 30s and late 50s
classic baby boomers, or persons born between
1946 and 1964. Growth also was focused among
young adults in their early and mid- 20s and
among older children and teen-age children, or
what is often referred to as the baby boom
echo. In looking forward toward the 2010
Census, the large population in their late 30s to
late 50s, will shift to their late 40s to late
60s, moving steadily toward retirement ages and
continue shifting. And the younger population
concentrated in their late teens and early 20s
will shift to late 20s and early 30s.







2
Montana Population by Age, 1990 vs. 2000 The
upper chart shows the number of persons residing
in Montana by single age from youngest to oldest
in 1990 and ten years later in 2000. The lower
chart shows how population changed for each age
during this ten-year period. Most of the states
population growth during the 90s was among
persons at ages between their early 40s and late
50s classic baby boomers or persons born
between 1947 and 1963. Some population growth
also concentrated among children and young adults
between the ages of 12 and 25. This latter group
is the children of baby boomers or the boomer
Echo population. Considerable population
decline actually occurred for persons at ages
between the boomer group and echo group. There
also was a fall-off in population for young
children. These ripples or waves in the
population age profile will continue to play out
in the future.

3
Projected Shifts in the Population of Montana by
Age The upper chart shows how population changed
in Montana by single age from youngest to oldest
between 1990 and 2000. The lower chart shows how
population is projected to change by the U.S.
Census Bureau (March, 2005, projections) between
2000 and 2010. The growth in population that was
concentrated among persons between their early
40s and late 50s in the 90s is projected to be
concentrated between persons in their early 50s
to late 60s in the current decade. The echo
population also will continue to age, shifting
growth to persons between their early 20s and
mid-30s. And during the current decade the
echo-echo population will come into being,
reflected in the recent increase in births.
4
Projected Popu-lation Growth by Age in the Next
Decade 2010 to 2020 The chart at the right
shows how Montanas population is projected to
change by age between 2010 and 2020. During the
next decade growth in the states population will
shift to persons in their early 60s to late 70s
and Montana is in fact projected to have one of
the largest populations 65 and older as a percent
of its total by 2020. The echo group or the
children of boomers is shown in growth among
persons from their early 30s to mid 40s.
However, this echo group is projected by the
Census Bureau to be much smaller than the boomer
group. In turn, the echo-echo group is
projected to be much smaller than the echo group.
As we look out in front of us, we can see that
population growth will continue to manifest
itself in ripples and waves, with each successive
wave of growth smaller than its immediate
predecessor. This pattern of growth has
significant implications. The fastest growth
will occur among seniors and health care demand
will continue to rise and housing needs will
change. The number of persons at will move up
and down at ages where college students are
primarily drawn, as well as for high schools and
elementary schools. The labor force of Montana
will very likely shrink in size in the future as
more and more persons leave the workforce for
retirement and there are not enough persons
entering the workforce to replace them.
5
Future Pop. Change in Montana by Age
Grouping The projected aging of Montanas
population over the next 20 years can be viewed
by examining how the population is expected to
change by age grouping. The upper chart shows
the population under 18 (high school and
younger), the population 18 to 33 (young
post-high school adults and those at ages of
family formation and childrearing), the
population 34 to 49 (young and middle-age
adults), the population 50 to 64 (older adults at
pre-retirement ages), and the population 65 and
older. The under 18 population, which grew by
only 3 in the 90s, is projected to fall by 8
between 2000 and 2010, then grow slightly in the
subsequent two decades. The young adult
population, which saw very little change in the
last decade, would grow by 10 in the current
decade before declining in each of the subsequent
periods. The older adult working age population
between 50 and 64, which saw massive growth in
the 90s will also see very high growth in the
current period before beginning a decline. And
the 65 and older population, which grew by only
13 in the 90s, will grow by 20, 46, and 27
in the subsequent three decades. As a result of
these age shifts, Montana will have one of the
largest populations over 65 of any state in the
country in future years.
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How Population Aging is affecting Birth Death
Trends in Montana By simply looking at long-term
trends in the number of births and number of
deaths statewide in Montana over time, you can
see some of the effects of population aging. The
chart shows the total number of births by
residents of Montana since the mid-50s through
2007. Births actually peaks back in 1957 and
have never returned to that level again. This
peak was associated with the peak in births by
todays baby boomers. Births once again rose
to another relative high in 1981 and this peak
was associated with the time when boomers
themselves were having kids. The more recent
smaller bubble that may continue to rise is
associated with the kids of boomers now having
kids themselves. As the population continues to
age, deaths are steadily rising and these will
begin to rise more rapidly as boomers reach 65
and older over the next decade.



10
Natural Population Change in Montana
Urban-to-Rural The chart shows net population
change as a result of only births and deaths in
Montana for the seven urban or regional center
counties, for counties nearby these centers, and
for the rest of the more rural counties in the
state. Most of the population growth now
occurring in Montana from natural change is
happening in the seven more urban centers. Very
little population growth is happening in the more
rural areas of the state, even though births are
slightly up with the emergence of the echo-echo
group, or the children of the children of
boomers. In the future as birth rates fall,
natural change in most of Montanas more rural
areas will go negative, that is, there will be
more deaths than births, and this negative
natural change will add to the already existing
population loss occurring because of negative
net migration in most of these rural areas.



11
Trends in Births-Deaths in Montana West vs.
East The upper chart shows total births and
deaths each year in the western mountain region
of Montana since the late 70s. The lower chart
shows the same for counties in eastern
Montana. Birth totals in the west have recovered
to levels in the early 80s. However, in the
east, total births have risen modestly but are
well below levels in the early 80s when the
current echo age group was being born. The
difference between births and deaths is what is
called natural change and western Montana is
currently adding more and more people through
natural change as the echo-echo group is being
born. This should continue for a few more years.
And as births eventually begin to decline,
deaths will continue rising.



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13
Trends in Natural Population Change in Missoula
Co. The upper chart shows the total number of
annual births and deaths by residents of Missoula
County since the late 70s through 2007. In 2007
there were 1,369 births by Missoula County
residents, up steadily from a low of 992 in 1997,
but still below the high of 1,385 in 1980 during
the peak in births among the echo group. This
bubble in births in the early 80s translated
into record high school enrollment levels in
Missoula County in the late 90s. The current
rise in births is associated with children of
boomers now themselves having children and this
rise in births will probably continue for at
least a few more years before gradually
subsiding. Deaths are steadily rising, setting
new records almost each year as they do. Total
deaths in the county will begin to rise more
rapidly in another 4 to 6 years, with the steady
aging of the large boomer population.




14
Recent Changes in Missoula Countys Younger
Population The children of baby boomers or those
in the echo group, are now at ages where they
are also starting families and having children,
which can be thought of as the echo-echo group.
This can be seen in the gradual increase in
those under 5 years of age living in the county
gradually increasing. However, children 5 to
13 decreased in numbers between 2000 and 2004,
before beginning to increase again between 2004
and 2005. And children 14 to 17 who compose most
of the high school age population declined in
numbers between 2002 and 2005, before beginning
to increase. An important factor in Missoulas
future regards what will happen to the size of
the school age population and how large the
echo-echo population will be.



15
Recent Changes in Montanas Younger Population
Regional Center Cos. Versus Rest of State The
younger population is being regenerated in most
of Montanas urban centers. However, this isnt
the case in most of Montana outside these
regional centers. The upper chart shows
population change among segments of the younger
population in the seven regional center counties.
The bottom chart shows change in the rest of
Montana outside these centers. The echo-echo
group is taking shape in Montanas regional
centers with year-to-year growth in the under 5
population. And this is translating into a
turnaround in decline among older children.
However, this isnt happening in the more rural
areas.



16
Recent Changes in Missoula Countys Older
Population The upper chart shows yearly
estimates of Missoula Countys population that is
45 and older broken down into three groups
those 45 to 64, which accounts for the baby
boomer group those 65 to 84, and those 85 and
older. The oldest of the boomer group is 62 or
63 this year, which means that over the next 20
years, the boomer group will steadily move past
the age of 65. This will result in the 65 and
older population of Missoula roughly doubling in
size over the next two decades. You can see the
beginnings of this steady rise in the 65 and
older population now.



17
Recent Changes in Missoula Countys 18 to 64
Population The upper chart shows yearly
estimates of Missoula s population of young
adults, ages 18 to 24, those 25 to 44, and older
adults between 45 and 64. The lower chart shows
recent yearly changes in these age groups. As
noted previously, Missoula has continued to
steadily add to its population between 45 and 64
baby boomers. It has also added to the number
of younger adults that are 25 to 44, but in
significantly smaller numbers. It is important
to note that the county is no longer adding to
its young adult population those between 18 and
24 who are residents of the county. There have
been pronounced declines in these younger adults
since 2003. The high school age population
peaked in about 2001 or 2002 in Missoula and this
is translating into declines in these declines in
young adults.



18
Population Growth Over Time in Missoula and
Ravalli Counties The upper chart shows
population levels of the two counties since 1969.
The lower chart shows changes for the two
counties for 5-year periods over time. Missoula
Countys population stood at about 59,000 in
1970, grew to more than 76,000 in 1980, then saw
very little growth in the 80s. Growth
accelerated in 1990, continuing through 1997,
reaching 93,000. It then slowed a bit, but rose
to over 96,000 in 2000 and to over 107,000 in
2008. Growth in Ravalli Co. followed a similar
pattern, rising from 25,000 in 1990 to 36,000 in
2000 and to 41,000 in 2008.


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Personal Income Growth among States, 1990
2007 Taken as a group and as a single region,
the Rocky Mountain West has the fastest growing
economy in the U.S., as measured in total
personal income growth since 1990. Four of the
five Rocky Mountain West states are among the top
six states in income growth and the 5th, Montana,
is ranked 13th among states in income
growth. This pace of growth in income over the
last two decades propelled Montana and other
Rocky Mountain West states through the early
stages of the national recession. While this
growth has slowed in the region, a similar
pattern of growth will largely emerge as the
national slowdown subsides over the next year or
so.




24
Personal Income Expansion in Montana Over
Time The upper chart shows levels of total
personal income for Montana since 1980 with
figures in millions of 2005 inflation-adjusted
dollars. Income totaled almost 16 billion in
1982, rose only slightly to over 16 billion in
1988, but since then has seen almost
uninterrupted expansion. Income surpassed 18
billion in 1992, then accelerated to over 24
billion in 2002. Growth has continued since then
and reached almost 29.5 billion in 2007. The
lower chart examines this income growth for
5-year periods over time. Income grew by less
than half a billion dollars between 1982 and
1987. Its growth then picked up, rising by 1.7
between 1987 and 1992. Growth has accelerated in
each successive 5-year period since, rising by
2.6 billion, then 3.8 billion, and by 4.9
billion in the most recent period from 2002 to
2007.






25
Urban-to-Rural Distribution of Personal Income
Growth in Montana The upper chart shows the
distribution of recent total personal income
growth in Montana between 1996 and 2006 by county
with counties arrayed from left to right by
urban-rural grouping and by amount of income
growth. Income grew by 12.3 billion between
1996 and 2006 in nominal dollars. Of this
growth, 8.7 billion occurred in the seven
regional centers (over 70 of the total), and
another 2.6 billion in growth occurred in the 27
counties nearby these regional centers (21).
The remaining 8 of income growth was accounted
for by the other 22 more rural and isolated
counties in Montana.







26
Personal Income Levels Over Time in Missoula and
Ravalli Counties The upper chart shows total
personal income for each county since 1969. The
lower chart shows percentage changes in income
for 5-year periods over this period. The
personal income base of Missoula County rose from
850 million in the early 70s to 1.5 billion in
the early 80s. Growth stagnated in the 80s.
However, since then, the county has seen
virtually uninterrupted growth, with total income
reaching 3.2 billion in 2006. Personal income
in Ravalli County rose from 430 million in the
late 80s to over 1 billion in 2006.


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Total Employment Growth among States,
1990-2007 Four of the five Rocky Mountain West
states are among the top ten states with the
fastest growing employment since 1990 and the
5th, Wyoming, is ranked 11th. The economies of
all these states are not only growing, but
changing and restructuring.




31
Urban-to-Rural Distribution of Employment Growth
in Montana The upper chart shows the
distribution of recent employment growth in
Montana between 1996 and 2006, as measured by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Commerce
Department. Counties are arrayed from left to
right based upon their urban-rural grouping and
by employment growth. The lower chart then shows
employment change over this ten-year period for
the three county groupings. Jobs increased by
115,000 over this period, with 86,815 of this job
growth (nearly 76) occurring in the seven
regional center counties. About 21 of the
growth (23,578 jobs) was in counties nearby these
centers. The remainder (less than 4) was in
rural counties.







32
Employment Levels in Missoula and Ravalli
Counties Over Time The upper chart shows total
employment, including all full- and part-time
jobs in Missoula and Ravalli Counties, since 1969
through 2006. Employment has steadily grown in
Missoula County over time, rising from 25,000 in
1970 to 40,500 by decades end. Employment dipped
temporarily in the early 80s, but has steadily
grown since the mid-80s. The lower chart shows
growth in employment in the two counties for
5-year periods over time.


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Per Capita Income Levels in Missoula Ravalli
Cos. Over Time Per capita income is simply
calculated by dividing the total personal income
of an area by its total population. It is one of
the most used measures of area economic
wellbeing. The upper chart shows per capita
income levels for Missoula and Ravalli Counties
over time in 2005 inflation-adjusted dollars.
Per capita income is higher in Missoula County
than Ravalli, standing at almost 31,000 in 2006
in Missoula versus 26,000 in Ravalli. Growth
over the last two 5-year periods has been strong.


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Employment by SIC Sector in Missoula Co. Over
Time The chart shows levels of total employment
including all full- and part-time jobs - by
major SIC sector in Missoula County between 1970
and 2000. Services, along with retail trade,
have led growth overall. Services jobs grew from
less than 5,000 in 1970 to over 23,000 in 2000
a more than four-fold increase. Retail trade
jobs increased from less than 5,000 to
13,800. Each of the other sectors have
considerably fewer jobs than services and retail
trade all with job totals of less than 5,000.
The large services sector in the SIC codes was
split into 9 separate major sectors in the NAICS
codes.


49
SIC Sector Employment Change in Missoula Co. 1970
to 2000 The upper chart shows employment growth
over the three decades between 1970 and 2000 by
major sector. The lower chart shows how this
growth changed the makeup of the area
economy. Employment growth was heavily
concentrated in services, and this growth has
increased in each successive ten-year period. As
a result, services share of total employment rose
from less than 20 in 1970 to nearly 35 in 2000.
Retail trade employment rose from 18 to almost
21. Manufacturing fell from 14.4 to 5.6.

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