QRA, from a VEP S. on RA 03.30.01 JEA

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QRA, from a VEPS. on RA 03.30.01JEA
TIHDZC, DVL, DK
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Qualitative Risk Analysis From a Veterinary
Engineering Perspective

• Seminar on Risk Analysis
• March 30, 2001
• Jens Strodl Andersen Tine Hald
• Danish Zoonosis Centre
• Danish Veterinary Laboratory

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Jens Strodl Andersen, DZC,DVL

• M.Sc. and Ph.D. in Engineering / Applied
  Statistics
• Risk analyst in COWI (2 years)
• qualitative and quantitative risk analysis
• Statistician at the Danish Zoonosis centre (2nd
  year)
• qualitative and quantitative risk analysis

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Qualitative Risk Analysis
RISK COMMUNICATION ITERATIVE PROCES
RISK ASSESSMENT
RISK / HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
RISK MANAGEMENT
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Risk Analysis
Research or surveillance show a potential problem
Authorities order some decision support
Risk analysis Identification Procesflow Assessm
ent Risk reducing actions
Risk management Action or not Accept
criteria Cost-benefit Comparison with other risks
Datasources Research Surveillance Control Other
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Qualitative Risk Analysis

• Clear and well defined purpose
• Preferable based on science
• Includes all relevant information
• Involve all interested parties
• Account for all sources, their interactions and
  their possible uncertainty
• Iteratively renewed

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Basic needs for success

• The nature, extent and relations of the problem i
  well understood
• Technical and economical resources to implement
  solutions

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Process or sequential analysis

• Is there a difference ?? between analysing
• Import of foot and mouth desease
• Contamination of meat with prions at the
  slaugterhouse
• Increase of DT104, due to spreading manure /
  slurry
• Accidents with oiltankers caused by increased
  oiltanker-traffic at sea
• Increase of injury and death of railway-workers
  due to low noise-barriers
• YES THERE IS !!!! BUT.

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There are some conseptual similarities

• It is possible to
• define the problem of concern and
• define accept-criteria
• Furthermore, it is possible to describe
• events, exposure and/or effect, spread
  and/or reactions, consequences, risk reducing
  actions
• Iterative process

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Pitt falls where do this go wrong

• Often, too much focus on data
• Too little attention is payed to rules and
  control. And how to control the control
• Lack of imagination (multidisciplinary)
• Nature of the problem
• Severe consequences vs small consequences

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Navigation in a narrow canal
Problem Some navigate like mad cows
Solution Sea marks and Warning zones
Buts Do mad cows listen to the radio
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Risk assessment of applying big volume irrigation
guns to spread manure diluted with water
Sprayfield
Manure/slurry
Mixture
Water well
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How does it look
Aerosols with zoonotic agens may cause peroral or
aerogen infections of humans and animals
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The tricky parts

• Imaging the possible violations of the rules
• Dilution of manure/slurry
• Volume spread
• Mechanical failure
• Time of year
• Weather conditions (wind, sun, temp)
• Violation of distance to nabouring fields

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Quantitative results, Worstcase scenario Number
of Salmonella inhaled per hour.
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Problem An possible increase of one 100.000 tons
oiltanker from Sct. Petersburg through the Danish
Straits per day
Solution Make a risk analysis
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Navigation route Accident Air observation

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The tricky parts

• Navigation by telephone books
• Drunk captain (or sleeping)
• Oil tankers from more southern and varmer parts
  of the world arrive to transport oil
• Not ready for the Baltic winterstorms
• Severe consequences

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Summary (1)
Public officials
Risk identification, Risk assessment and Risk
management
Decision
Natural and Social Science
Interested and affected parties
Analysis
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Summary (2)

• Focus less on data
• Use imagination
• Remember the tricky parts