Success stories of RES-E development:

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• Success stories of RES-E development
• PV Solar Electricity
• 7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting
• Deutscher Bundestag
• Berlin - 5th October 2007

Dr. Winfried Hoffmann Chief Technology Officer
(CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied
Materials President of the European Photovoltaic
Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar
Industry Association (BSW Solar) and member of
the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH Applied
Materials GmbH Co. KG Siemensstr. 100 63755
Alzenau Phone [phone] Fax 49 6023
92 6560 email Winfried_Hoffmann_at_amat.com
www.appliedmaterials.com
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Applied Materials Overview
Vision We apply nanomanufacturing technology
to improve the way people live
Revenue (Past 4 Qtrs.) 9,868 Million
Worldwide Employees Approx. 14,000
Worldwide Locations 18 Countries
Solar Business Group within Energy and
Environmental Solutions
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Historical Market Development by Regions
ref European Photovoltaic Industries Association
(EPIA) Navigant Consulting
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Development of the German PV market
ref Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)
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Renewable Energies are requested

• These energy sources should secure our energy
  needs in the future

The vast majority of the population in Germany
bets on Renewable Energies for their future
energy needs.
ref forsa, Germany 2005
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Industry is following the market

• More than 15 billion were invested in PV systems
  in Germany since 2000
• About 1 billion will be invested in
  manufacturing plants in 2007
• About 50 companies produce silicon, wafers,
  cells, modules and inverters
• Modern and automated production lines
• Improved efficiency, improved products
• About 100 million will be invested in Research
  Development in 2007
• Strong technological development and increased
  RD activities
• RD is done by industry and institutes

ref Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)
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European Market Support Programs
ref European Photovoltaic Industries Association
(EPIA)
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Customer Needs
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World PV Application Segmentation
2000
40 /yr overall
1800
1600
1400
1200
63/yr
1000
Market Size in MW
800
600
400
18/yr
200
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Off-Grid Consumer
on-Grid
ref European Photovoltaic Industries Association
(EPIA) Navigant Consulting
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Competitiveness between Electricity Generating
Cost for PV and Utility Prices
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Seasonal Electricity Prices
Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005
Range of Electricity Prices in California
ref Japan KEPCO office data California
Alison Hyde of BSW
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Different World PV Market Projectionsuntil 2010
(Status 2006/2007 )
F
F
F
F
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Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules
Forecast
ref European Photovoltaic Industries Association
(EPIA) and W. Hoffmann personal estimates
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Cost/Learning Curve Examples
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Future Growth of the Global PV SolarElectricity
Market in GWp and bn turnover
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
ref W. Hoffmann personal estimates
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Electricity generating cost ct/kWh Eurelectric / VGB Power Tech Today 2005 Today 2005 Tomorrow 2030 Tomorrow 2030 Day after tomorrow 2050 Day after tomorrow 2050
Fossile (coal, gas) 4 - 4.5 4 - 4.5 6-7 6-7 6.5 - 9 6.5 - 9
Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR) 4 6 4 6 3.5 7 3.5 7 3.5 - 6 3.5 - 6

PV solar electricity (south/north) 20/40 20/40 5/10 5/10 3/6 3/6
ref EURELECTRIC and W. Hoffmann personal
estimates
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Solar is Projected to be Big
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Summary The Future of PV Solar Electricity (I)

• Success story for PV solar electricity industry
  due to market support programs (40 annual
  growth in the last decade) specific
• Industry investment for PV solar electricity
  high-tech production needs
• Stable market conditions
• Not short also not long term, but until grid
  parity is reached ( 5 15 years)
• Allow differentiated feed-in tariff programs in
  EK 27 do not force non-differentiating quota
  systems / trading of green certificates in short
  term
• No stop and go budget
• (happening when coming from finance minister,
  instead feed in tariff budgets allocated to
  electricity users)
• In compliance with population (more than 80 of
  people like to support financially in particular
  PV systems, e.g. modest increase to electricity
  bill in feed in tariffs)
• Easy grid access without bureaucratic hurdles (no
  approval procedures for decentralized PV systems)

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Summary The Future of PV Solar Electricity (II)

• If support programs are done now globally, we
  will have
• Short term (2015 )
• Reach grid parity in liberalized utility markets
• Market volume above 30 bn
• Medium term (2030 )
• Reach generation cost equal to clean coal
  electricity production
• Market volume towards 200 bn
• Be the most suited energy delivery together with
  micro-credit financing to the billions of people
  in the developing world
• Long term (2050 )
• Together with solar thermal electricity power
  stations be the lowest cost electricity producing
  technology (also less than nuclear)
• Contribute aggressively to the global electricity
  needs (more than30 )

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END