International Workshop on FORESIGHT Sofia, Bulgaria June 1920, 2003

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International Workshop on FORESIGHTSofia,
Bulgaria June 19-20, 2003

• SWOT analysis
• Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats

Rafael Popper Research Associate Rafael.Popper_at_man
.ac.uk
Dobro utro!
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Outline

• Commonly used foresight methods
• The SWOT analysis
• Why SWOT?
• Origins of SWOT
• Criteria for SWOT
• History matters
• Starters for SWOT discussion
• Questions (5 minutes)
• Exercise discussions (30 minutes)

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Commonly used methods
QUALITATIVE
Past current data
STEEPV - BRAINSTORMING
SWOT SCANNING
TIME SERIES
DELPHI TECHNIQUE
REGRESSION MODELS
SCENARIO BUILDING
STOCHASTIC SIMULATION
STAKEHOLDERS MAPPING
ECONOMETRIC MODELS
CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
PRIORITISATION
QUANTITATIVE
Future-oriented visions
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The SWOT analysis

• Strengths (internal competences capabilities)
• What we have
• Weaknesses (lack of internal CC)
• What we lack
• Opportunities (external positive circumstances)
• What we could get
• Threats (external negative circumstances)
• What we could lose

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Why SWOT?

• To identify
• wide ranging issues - what we are?
• local, national regional levels (themes,
  sectors)
• Competences Capabilities - what we have?
• What is available? possible? feasible?
  ...reachable?
• longer-term implications - what to avoid/do?
• What are the positive/negative trends?
• strategies - how to do?
• defence, attack, surrender, create alliances, etc.

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Origins of SWOT

• No certainty
• Probably more than 2,000 years
• Sun-Tzu in his 'Art of War' wrote
• Know your enemy, know yourself, and your
  victory will not be threatened.Know the
  weather, know the terrain, and your victory will
  be complete.

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Examples of criteria for SWOT

• Quality of best groups/sectors in Eastern Europe
• Quality of EE research in general
• Areas in which EE has a few outstanding
  groups/sectors
• Areas in which EE has strength in depth
• Other fields of critical importance
• Areas in which EE has a general absence of high
  quality research
• Areas in which the EE has islands of excellence
  but significant weakness
• Comparative resources for research
• Effectiveness of knowledge transfer
• Spending priorities

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History matters (i.e. Bulgaria)

• centre of a powerful medieval empire (mid 9th
  -10th C)
• under a Byzantine rule (11th - mid12th C)
• regained independence (mid 12th -13th C)
• 5 centuries of Ottoman rule (14th -18th C)
• cultural renaissance (19th C)
• three wars (20th C)
• emergence of democracy (1989)
• continued financial policies?
• continued privatisation?
• continued structural reforms?
• continued growth in the Bulgarian economy?
• employment?
• standards of living?
• EU accession in 2007?
• continued national pride and identity?

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Starters for SWOT discussions

• Demographics (neighbours/EE)
• STEEPV comparisons (neighbours/EE)
• Social
• Technology
• Economy
• Environment
• Politics
• Values ethics
• Uniqueness of Bulgaria

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Population (Bulgaria EE)
Source PRB 2002 World Population Data Sheet 
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Comparison with EE (Population)
Population projections (percentage changed from
previous year)
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Comparison with neighbours(1/18)
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Comparison with neighbours(2/18)
SOC
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Comparison with neighbours(3/18)
Tec
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Comparison with neighbours(4/18)
Tec
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Comparison with neighbours(5/18)
Tec
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Comparison with neighbours(6/18)
Tec
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Comparison with neighbours(7/18)
ECO
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Comparison with neighbours(8/18)
ECO
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Comparison with neighbours(9/18)
ECO
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Comparison with neighbours(10/18)
ECO
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Comparison with neighbours(11/18)
ECO
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Comparison with neighbours(12/18)
ECO
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Comparison with neighbours(13/18)
ECO
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Comparison with neighbours(14/18)
ECO
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Comparison with neighbours(15/18)
ECO
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Comparison with neighbours(16/18)
ECO
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Comparison with neighbours(17/18)
ENV
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Comparison with neighbours(18/18)
POL
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Blagodarya!Thank you!
Questions (max. 5 minutes)

• Rafael Popper
• PREST, University of Manchester, UK

Rafael.Popper_at_man.ac.uk http//les1.man.ac.uk/PRES
T
Dobro utro!
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Exercise 2- SWOT for Bulgaria 2025 (30 minutes)

• Please get together in 4 groups
• You will be assigned one of the SWOT elements
• Discuss about Bulgarian CC or lack of them as
  well as / - circumstances affecting the country
  by 2025
• Nominate one group Facilitator one Secretary
• Use results from STEEPV exercise together with
  the regional comparison of this presentation as
  starting points for your discussion
• Identify a maximum of 10 issues (up to 15 words
  each)
• Rank the level of importance of each issue (1-10)
  and assign a level of uncertainty from 1-10
  (10very uncertain)
• The facilitator will try to keep conversation
  alive/dynamic
• The secretary will try to take notes of most
  relevant issues